Gornik Zabrze
vs
Piast Gliwice
Ekstraklasa prediction
Our model says: Gornik Zabrze 1–0 Piast Gliwice
The model makes it 48% Gornik Zabrze, 28% draw, 24% Piast Gliwice — fair odds of 2.08, 3.57 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Gornik Zabrze 1.86, Piast Gliwice 0.99.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Gornik Zabrze are top on 22 points from 9 games; Piast Gliwice are 8th on 13 points from 9 games — Ekstraklasa.
- Gornik Zabrze are unbeaten in their last 5 (4 won), most recently a 0-0 draw away to Motor Lublin.
- Piast Gliwice have won 3 of their last 5, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Pogon Szczecin.
- Last 6 meetings: Gornik Zabrze 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 31 January 2026, ended Gornik Zabrze 2–1 Piast Gliwice.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Gornik Zabrze vs Piast Gliwice
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Gornik Zabrze at 48% here. Across 3,018 settled matches (as of 4 October 2026), 1,401 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Gornik Zabrze vs Piast Gliwice
Gornik Zabrze
- D0-0away to Motor Lublin19 September 2026
- W2-0away to Korona Kielce15 September 2026
- W2-1Lech Poznan12 September 2026
- W1-0away to Cracovia Krakow6 September 2026
- W2-1away to Raków Częstochowa3 September 2026
Piast Gliwice
- L1-2Pogon Szczecin20 September 2026
- W2-0away to Radomiak Radom14 September 2026
- W3-0GKS Katowice4 September 2026
- W2-0away to Motor Lublin29 August 2026
- D1-1Legia Warszawa22 August 2026
What these results say
- Gornik Zabrze went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Gornik Zabrze won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Gornik Zabrze scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Piast Gliwice scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gornik Zabrze | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 8 | +8 | 22 |
| 8 | Piast Gliwice | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 15 | +1 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Gornik Zabrze vs Piast Gliwice
- 31 January 2026Gornik Zabrze 2–1 Piast GliwiceEkstraklasa
- 26 July 2025Piast Gliwice 0–1 Gornik ZabrzeEkstraklasa
- 17 May 2025Piast Gliwice 2–0 Gornik ZabrzeEkstraklasa
- 24 November 2024Gornik Zabrze 1–0 Piast GliwiceEkstraklasa
- 10 February 2024Piast Gliwice 1–3 Gornik ZabrzeEkstraklasa
- 5 August 2023Gornik Zabrze 0–0 Piast GliwiceEkstraklasa
Leading scorers: Gornik Zabrze and Piast Gliwice
Gornik Zabrze
- Peter4 goals
Piast Gliwice
- Leandro Sanca4 goals1 assist
- Hugo Vallejo3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Gornik Zabrze carry a model rating of 6.82 against 6.63 for Piast Gliwice. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.86 goals for Gornik Zabrze and 0.99 for Piast Gliwice. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Gornik Zabrze rate 0.86 in attack and 0.93 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Piast Gliwice rate 0.84 and 1.31.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Gornik Zabrze a 23.2% chance of the title and Piast Gliwice 0.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,418 correct results out of 3,018 settled predictions (47%), with 294 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Gornik Zabrze the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Gornik Zabrze against 0.99 for Piast Gliwice. Gornik Zabrze's attack/defence rating is 0.86/0.93 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.84/1.31 for Piast Gliwice.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Gornik Zabrze at home · Piast Gliwice away
League matches only, Ekstraklasa, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ekstraklasa matches this season: Gornik Zabrze 9, Piast Gliwice 9.
Gornik Zabrze score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Piast Gliwice have let in 3 there.
Piast Gliwice score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); Gornik Zabrze have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Gornik Zabrze
- at Widzew Łódź23 Oct · Ekstraklasawin 37%
- vs Legia Warszawa31 Oct · Ekstraklasawin 39%
- vs Wieczysta Kraków7 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 54%
- at Zaglebie Lubin21 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 35%
Piast Gliwice
- vs Cracovia Krakow24 Oct · Ekstraklasawin 46%
- at Wisla Plock31 Oct · Ekstraklasawin 34%
- at Slask Wroclaw7 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 34%
- vs Korona Kielce21 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 40%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.