Cracovia Krakow
vs
Motor Lublin
Ekstraklasa prediction
Our model says: Cracovia Krakow 2–1 Motor Lublin
The model makes it 42% Cracovia Krakow, 27% draw, 31% Motor Lublin — fair odds of 2.38, 3.70 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Cracovia Krakow 1.55, Motor Lublin 1.26.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Cracovia Krakow are 12th on 11 points from 10 games; Motor Lublin are 11th on 12 points from 11 games — Ekstraklasa.
- Cracovia Krakow have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-1 win at home to Zaglebie Lubin.
- Motor Lublin are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 3-2 win at home to Slask Wroclaw.
- Last 4 meetings: Cracovia Krakow 2 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 16 May 2026, ended Motor Lublin 3–3 Cracovia Krakow.
More Ekstraklasa predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Cracovia Krakow vs Motor Lublin
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Cracovia Krakow at 42% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 1,906 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Cracovia Krakow vs Motor Lublin
Cracovia Krakow
- W3-1Zaglebie Lubin10 October 2026
- L2-3away to GKS Katowice19 September 2026
- L1-3away to Wisla Plock13 September 2026
- L0-1Gornik Zabrze6 September 2026
- L1-2away to Radomiak Radom29 August 2026
Motor Lublin
- W3-2Slask Wroclaw17 October 2026
- W3-2away to Radomiak Radom12 October 2026
- D0-0Gornik Zabrze19 September 2026
- L1-2away to Raków Częstochowa11 September 2026
- L2-3Legia Warszawa5 September 2026
What these results say
- Cracovia Krakow conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Cracovia Krakow failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Cracovia Krakow scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Motor Lublin scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Motor Lublin conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Motor Lublin had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Cracovia Krakow | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 11 |
| 11 | Motor Lublin | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 19 | -4 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Cracovia Krakow
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 21% today
Motor Lublin
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 22% today
From our Ekstraklasa season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Cracovia Krakow vs Motor Lublin
- 16 May 2026Motor Lublin 3–3 Cracovia KrakowEkstraklasa
- 22 November 2025Cracovia Krakow 1–2 Motor LublinEkstraklasa
- 26 April 2025Motor Lublin 0–1 Cracovia KrakowEkstraklasa
- 26 October 2024Cracovia Krakow 6–2 Motor LublinEkstraklasa
Leading scorers: Cracovia Krakow and Motor Lublin
Cracovia Krakow
GoalsAssists
- A. Hasić52
Motor Lublin
GoalsAssists
- K. Czubak60
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Cracovia Krakow carry a model rating of 6.54 against 6.57 for Motor Lublin. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.55 goals for Cracovia Krakow and 1.26 for Motor Lublin. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Cracovia Krakow rate 0.67 in attack and 1.25 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Motor Lublin rate 0.79 and 1.40.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Motor Lublin, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Cracovia Krakow the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Cracovia Krakow against 1.26 for Motor Lublin. Cracovia Krakow's attack/defence rating is 0.67/1.25 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.79/1.4 for Motor Lublin.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Cracovia Krakow at home · Motor Lublin away
League matches only, Ekstraklasa, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ekstraklasa matches this season: Cracovia Krakow 10, Motor Lublin 11.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Cracovia Krakow
- at Wisla Krakow7 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 23%
- vs Jagiellonia21 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 37%
- at Korona Kielce28 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 26%
Motor Lublin
- vs Wisla Plock7 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 48%
- at Wieczysta Kraków21 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 31%
- at Wisla Krakow28 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 24%
- vs Lech Poznan5 Dec · Ekstraklasawin 25%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.