Zaglebie Lubin
vs
Jagiellonia
Ekstraklasa prediction
Our model says: Zaglebie Lubin 1–0 Jagiellonia
The model makes it 38% Zaglebie Lubin, 30% draw, 32% Jagiellonia — fair odds of 2.63, 3.33 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Zaglebie Lubin 1.29, Jagiellonia 1.09.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 43%, under 2.5: 57%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published
Key facts
- Zaglebie Lubin are 7th on 15 points from 9 games; Jagiellonia are 10th on 12 points from 8 games — Ekstraklasa.
- Zaglebie Lubin have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Wisla Plock.
- Jagiellonia have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 1-3 defeat at home to Legia Warszawa.
- Last 6 meetings: Jagiellonia 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 23 May 2026, ended Jagiellonia 1–0 Zaglebie Lubin.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Zaglebie Lubin vs Jagiellonia
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Zaglebie Lubin at 38% here. Across 3,018 settled matches (as of 4 October 2026), 2,372 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Zaglebie Lubin vs Jagiellonia
Zaglebie Lubin
- L0-2Wisla Plock20 September 2026
- W3-2away to Raków Częstochowa15 September 2026
- W2-1GKS Katowice12 September 2026
- D1-1away to Wieczysta Kraków7 September 2026
- D0-0Pogon Szczecin29 August 2026
Jagiellonia
- L1-3Legia Warszawa20 September 2026
- L0-2away to Wisla Krakow11 September 2026
- W2-1Slask Wroclaw6 September 2026
- L1-2away to Lech Poznan3 September 2026
- W5-2away to Raków Częstochowa30 August 2026
What these results say
- Zaglebie Lubin conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Jagiellonia conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Jagiellonia scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Jagiellonia had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Zaglebie Lubin | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 15 |
| 10 | Jagiellonia | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Zaglebie Lubin vs Jagiellonia
- 23 May 2026Jagiellonia 1–0 Zaglebie LubinEkstraklasa
- 30 November 2025Zaglebie Lubin 0–0 JagielloniaEkstraklasa
- 11 July 2025Jagiellonia 0–1 Zaglebie LubinFriendlies Clubs
- 21 April 2025Jagiellonia 1–3 Zaglebie LubinEkstraklasa
- 19 October 2024Zaglebie Lubin 1–3 JagielloniaEkstraklasa
- 20 April 2024Zaglebie Lubin 1–2 JagielloniaEkstraklasa
Leading scorers: Zaglebie Lubin and Jagiellonia
Zaglebie Lubin
No player in Ekstraklasa's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.
Jagiellonia
- N. Prelec3 goals1 assist
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Zaglebie Lubin carry a model rating of 6.66 against 6.68 for Jagiellonia. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.29 goals for Zaglebie Lubin and 1.09 for Jagiellonia. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Zaglebie Lubin rate 0.65 in attack and 1.00 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Jagiellonia rate 0.86 and 1.20.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Zaglebie Lubin a 0.5% chance of the title and Jagiellonia 1.8%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,418 correct results out of 3,018 settled predictions (47%), with 294 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Zaglebie Lubin the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Zaglebie Lubin against 1.09 for Jagiellonia. Zaglebie Lubin's attack/defence rating is 0.65/1 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.86/1.2 for Jagiellonia.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Zaglebie Lubin at home · Jagiellonia away
League matches only, Ekstraklasa, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ekstraklasa matches this season: Zaglebie Lubin 9, Jagiellonia 8.
Zaglebie Lubin score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Jagiellonia have let in 4 there.
Jagiellonia score most often in the 31–45 minute window (6 goals); Zaglebie Lubin have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Zaglebie Lubin
- at Motor Lublin23 Oct · Ekstraklasawin 34%
- vs Korona Kielce31 Oct · Ekstraklasawin 38%
- at Lech Poznan7 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 22%
- vs Gornik Zabrze21 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 33%
Jagiellonia
- vs Anderlecht22 Oct · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 37%
- vs Wisla Plock25 Oct · Ekstraklasawin 47%
- at Wieczysta Kraków31 Oct · Ekstraklasawin 38%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.