Gornik Zabrze
vs
Legia Warszawa
Ekstraklasa prediction
Our model says: Gornik Zabrze 1–0 Legia Warszawa
The model makes it 41% Gornik Zabrze, 29% draw, 30% Legia Warszawa — fair odds of 2.44, 3.45 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Gornik Zabrze 1.36, Legia Warszawa 1.07.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 44%, under 2.5: 56%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Gornik Zabrze are top on 25 points from 10 games; Legia Warszawa are 3rd on 22 points from 10 games — Ekstraklasa.
- Gornik Zabrze are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 3-1 win away to Jagiellonia.
- Legia Warszawa are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 2-0 win at home to Wisla Krakow.
- Last 6 meetings: Legia Warszawa 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 11 April 2026, ended Legia Warszawa 1–1 Gornik Zabrze.
More Ekstraklasa predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Gornik Zabrze vs Legia Warszawa
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Gornik Zabrze at 41% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 1,906 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Gornik Zabrze vs Legia Warszawa
Gornik Zabrze
- W3-1away to Jagiellonia10 October 2026
- D0-0away to Motor Lublin19 September 2026
- W2-0away to Korona Kielce15 September 2026
- W2-1Lech Poznan12 September 2026
- W1-0away to Cracovia Krakow6 September 2026
Legia Warszawa
- W2-0Wisla Krakow11 October 2026
- W3-1away to Jagiellonia20 September 2026
- D1-1Widzew Łódź13 September 2026
- W3-2away to Motor Lublin5 September 2026
- D1-1Slask Wroclaw28 August 2026
What these results say
- Gornik Zabrze went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Gornik Zabrze won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Gornik Zabrze scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Legia Warszawa went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Legia Warszawa scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Legia Warszawa conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gornik Zabrze | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 9 | +10 | 25 |
| 3 | Legia Warszawa | 10 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 21 | 8 | +13 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Gornik Zabrze
Chance to win the league · 30% today
Legia Warszawa
Chance to win the league · 17% today
From our Ekstraklasa season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Gornik Zabrze vs Legia Warszawa
- 11 April 2026Legia Warszawa 1–1 Gornik ZabrzeEkstraklasa
- 5 October 2025Gornik Zabrze 3–1 Legia WarszawaEkstraklasa
- 6 April 2025Gornik Zabrze 1–2 Legia WarszawaEkstraklasa
- 28 September 2024Legia Warszawa 1–1 Gornik ZabrzeEkstraklasa
- 1 April 2024Gornik Zabrze 1–3 Legia WarszawaEkstraklasa
- 24 September 2023Legia Warszawa 2–1 Gornik ZabrzeEkstraklasa
Leading scorers: Gornik Zabrze and Legia Warszawa
Gornik Zabrze
GoalsAssists
- K. UrbaÅski41
- Peter40
Legia Warszawa
GoalsAssists
- R. Augustyniak42
- R. Adamski40
- Ł. Zjawiński40
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Gornik Zabrze carry a model rating of 6.84 against 6.85 for Legia Warszawa. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.36 goals for Gornik Zabrze and 1.07 for Legia Warszawa. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Gornik Zabrze rate 0.90 in attack and 0.92 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Legia Warszawa rate 0.91 and 0.91.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Gornik Zabrze a 29.8% chance of the title and Legia Warszawa 17%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Gornik Zabrze the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Gornik Zabrze against 1.07 for Legia Warszawa. Gornik Zabrze's attack/defence rating is 0.9/0.92 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.91/0.91 for Legia Warszawa.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Gornik Zabrze at home · Legia Warszawa away
League matches only, Ekstraklasa, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ekstraklasa matches this season: Gornik Zabrze 10, Legia Warszawa 10.
Gornik Zabrze score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); Legia Warszawa have let in 1 there.
Legia Warszawa score most often in the 16–30 minute window (6 goals); Gornik Zabrze have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Gornik Zabrze
- vs Wieczysta Kraków7 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 60%
- at Zaglebie Lubin21 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 40%
- vs Wisla Plock28 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 61%
Legia Warszawa
- vs Raków Częstochowa7 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 58%
- at Wisla Plock21 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 48%
- vs Wieczysta Kraków28 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 61%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.