Wieczysta Kraków
vs
Jagiellonia
Ekstraklasa prediction
Our model says: Wieczysta Kraków 2–1 Jagiellonia
The model makes it 40% Wieczysta Kraków, 25% draw, 35% Jagiellonia — fair odds of 2.50, 4.00 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Wieczysta Kraków 1.72, Jagiellonia 1.61.
Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Wieczysta Kraków are 15th on 8 points from 11 games; Jagiellonia are 10th on 12 points from 9 games — Ekstraklasa.
- Wieczysta Kraków have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Raków Częstochowa.
- Jagiellonia are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat at home to Gornik Zabrze.
More Ekstraklasa predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Wieczysta Kraków vs Jagiellonia
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Wieczysta Kraków at 40% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 1,906 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Wieczysta Kraków vs Jagiellonia
Wieczysta Kraków
- L1-2Raków Częstochowa16 October 2026
- L1-2away to GKS Katowice12 October 2026
- W3-0Wisla Plock9 October 2026
- D2-2away to Widzew Łódź18 September 2026
- L0-2away to Pogon Szczecin13 September 2026
Jagiellonia
- L1-3Gornik Zabrze10 October 2026
- L1-3Legia Warszawa20 September 2026
- L0-2away to Wisla Krakow11 September 2026
- W2-1Slask Wroclaw6 September 2026
- L1-2away to Lech Poznan3 September 2026
What these results say
- Wieczysta Kraków failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Wieczysta Kraków scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Wieczysta Kraków conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Jagiellonia conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Jagiellonia failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Jagiellonia scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Wieczysta Kraków | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 16 | 21 | -5 | 8 |
| 10 | Jagiellonia | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Wieczysta Kraków
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 28% today
Jagiellonia
Chance to finish in the top four · 10% today
From our Ekstraklasa season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Leading scorers: Wieczysta Kraków and Jagiellonia
Wieczysta Kraków
GoalsAssists
- Lisandro Semedo40
- Lucas Piazón32
Jagiellonia
No player in Ekstraklasa's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Wieczysta Kraków carry a model rating of 6.56 against 6.65 for Jagiellonia. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.72 goals for Wieczysta Kraków and 1.61 for Jagiellonia. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Wieczysta Kraków rate 0.82 in attack and 1.48 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Jagiellonia rate 0.85 and 1.27.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Jagiellonia, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Wieczysta Kraków a 0% chance of the title and Jagiellonia 0.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Wieczysta Kraków the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Wieczysta Kraków against 1.61 for Jagiellonia. Wieczysta Kraków's attack/defence rating is 0.82/1.48 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.85/1.27 for Jagiellonia.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Wieczysta Kraków at home · Jagiellonia away
League matches only, Ekstraklasa, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ekstraklasa matches this season: Wieczysta Kraków 11, Jagiellonia 9.
Wieczysta Kraków score most often in the 61–75 minute window (7 goals); Jagiellonia have let in 1 there.
Jagiellonia score most often in the 31–45 minute window (6 goals); Wieczysta Kraków have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Wieczysta Kraków
- at Gornik Zabrze7 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 17%
- vs Motor Lublin21 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 44%
- at Legia Warszawa28 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 17%
- vs Korona Kielce5 Dec · Ekstraklasawin 41%
Jagiellonia
- at Levski Sofia5 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 21%
- vs GKS Katowice7 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 39%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.