GKS Katowice
vs
Widzew Łódź
Ekstraklasa prediction
Our model says: GKS Katowice 1–0 Widzew Łódź
The model makes it 51% GKS Katowice, 26% draw, 23% Widzew Łódź — fair odds of 1.96, 3.85 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: GKS Katowice 1.73, Widzew Łódź 0.99.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to GKS Katowice: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- GKS Katowice are 5th on 18 points from 11 games; Widzew Łódź are 14th on 10 points from 11 games — Ekstraklasa.
- GKS Katowice have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Pogon Szczecin.
- Widzew Łódź have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Wisla Krakow.
- Last 6 meetings: Widzew Łódź 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 3 March 2026, ended GKS Katowice 1–1 Widzew Łódź.
More Ekstraklasa predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: GKS Katowice vs Widzew Łódź
Has the model earned this number?
It puts GKS Katowice at 51% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 989 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into GKS Katowice vs Widzew Łódź
GKS Katowice
- L0-1Pogon Szczecin17 October 2026
- W2-1Wieczysta Kraków12 October 2026
- W4-1away to Raków Częstochowa9 October 2026
- W3-2Cracovia Krakow19 September 2026
- L1-2away to Zaglebie Lubin12 September 2026
Widzew Łódź
- D0-0Wisla Krakow16 October 2026
- L1-2away to Piast Gliwice11 October 2026
- D2-2Wieczysta Kraków18 September 2026
- D1-1away to Legia Warszawa13 September 2026
- D0-0Radomiak Radom5 September 2026
What these results say
- GKS Katowice conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- GKS Katowice scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for GKS Katowice had three goals or more.
- Widzew Łódź did not win any of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | GKS Katowice | 11 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 22 | 16 | +6 | 18 |
| 14 | Widzew Łódź | 11 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 14 | 15 | -1 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
GKS Katowice
Chance to finish in the top four · 30% today
Widzew Łódź
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 22% today
From our Ekstraklasa season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: GKS Katowice vs Widzew Łódź
- 3 March 2026GKS Katowice 1–1 Widzew ŁódźCup
- 8 February 2026GKS Katowice 1–0 Widzew ŁódźEkstraklasa
- 2 August 2025Widzew Łódź 3–0 GKS KatowiceEkstraklasa
- 15 March 2025Widzew Łódź 1–0 GKS KatowiceEkstraklasa
- 13 September 2024GKS Katowice 2–2 Widzew ŁódźEkstraklasa
- 22 June 2024Widzew Łódź 3–1 GKS KatowiceFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: GKS Katowice and Widzew Łódź
GKS Katowice
GoalsAssists
- I. Shkurin81
- B. Nowak48
Widzew Łódź
No player in Ekstraklasa's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
GKS Katowice carry a model rating of 6.75 against 6.61 for Widzew Łódź. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.73 goals for GKS Katowice and 0.99 for Widzew Łódź. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
GKS Katowice rate 0.96 in attack and 1.18 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Widzew Łódź rate 0.66 and 1.09.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives GKS Katowice a 2.4% chance of the title and Widzew Łódź 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives GKS Katowice the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.73 expected goals for GKS Katowice against 0.99 for Widzew Łódź. GKS Katowice's attack/defence rating is 0.96/1.18 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.66/1.09 for Widzew Łódź.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
GKS Katowice at home · Widzew Łódź away
League matches only, Ekstraklasa, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ekstraklasa matches this season: GKS Katowice 11, Widzew Łódź 11.
GKS Katowice score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); Widzew Łódź have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
GKS Katowice
- at Jagiellonia7 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 35%
- vs Lech Poznan21 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 34%
- at Slask Wroclaw28 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 46%
- vs Legia Warszawa5 Dec · Ekstraklasawin 38%
Widzew Łódź
- vs Pogon Szczecin7 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 31%
- at Raków Częstochowa21 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 30%
- vs Zaglebie Lubin28 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 40%
- at Cracovia Krakow5 Dec · Ekstraklasawin 32%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.