Lech Poznan
vs
Korona Kielce
Ekstraklasa prediction
Our model says: Lech Poznan 2–0 Korona Kielce
The model makes it 51% Lech Poznan, 27% draw, 22% Korona Kielce — fair odds of 1.96, 3.70 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (11%).
Expected goals: Lech Poznan 1.97, Korona Kielce 0.90.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: High.
Published
Key facts
- Lech Poznan are 3rd on 19 points from 8 games; Korona Kielce are 6th on 15 points from 9 games — Ekstraklasa.
- Lech Poznan have won 4 of their last 5, most recently a 5-1 win at home to Radomiak Radom.
- Korona Kielce have won 3 of their last 5, most recently a 3-2 win at home to Raków Częstochowa.
- Last 6 meetings: Lech Poznan 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 22 February 2026, ended Korona Kielce 1–2 Lech Poznan.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Lech Poznan vs Korona Kielce
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Lech Poznan at 51% here. Across 3,018 settled matches (as of 4 October 2026), 705 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Lech Poznan vs Korona Kielce
Lech Poznan
- W5-1Radomiak Radom20 September 2026
- L1-2away to Gornik Zabrze12 September 2026
- W1-0Raków Częstochowa6 September 2026
- W2-1Jagiellonia3 September 2026
- W3-2away to Widzew Łódź30 August 2026
Korona Kielce
- W3-2Raków Częstochowa19 September 2026
- L0-2Gornik Zabrze15 September 2026
- W2-1away to Slask Wroclaw12 September 2026
- D1-1Wisla Krakow5 September 2026
- W2-0away to Wisla Plock28 August 2026
What these results say
- Lech Poznan scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Lech Poznan won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Lech Poznan conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Korona Kielce scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Korona Kielce conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Lech Poznan | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 7 | +10 | 19 |
| 6 | Korona Kielce | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Lech Poznan vs Korona Kielce
- 22 February 2026Korona Kielce 1–2 Lech PoznanEkstraklasa
- 16 August 2025Lech Poznan 1–1 Korona KielceEkstraklasa
- 5 April 2025Lech Poznan 2–0 Korona KielceEkstraklasa
- 29 September 2024Korona Kielce 2–3 Lech PoznanEkstraklasa
- 25 May 2024Lech Poznan 1–2 Korona KielceEkstraklasa
- 2 December 2023Korona Kielce 0–1 Lech PoznanEkstraklasa
Leading scorers: Lech Poznan and Korona Kielce
Lech Poznan
- A. Sayyadmanesh5 goals
- Pablo Rodríguez3 goals3 assists
Korona Kielce
- M. Stępiński6 goals
- M. Faßbender3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Lech Poznan carry a model rating of 6.9 against 6.65 for Korona Kielce. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.97 goals for Lech Poznan and 0.90 for Korona Kielce. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Lech Poznan rate 1.09 in attack and 0.98 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Korona Kielce rate 0.72 and 1.09.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Lech Poznan a 44.8% chance of the title and Korona Kielce 0.9%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,418 correct results out of 3,018 settled predictions (47%), with 294 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Lech Poznan the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.97 expected goals for Lech Poznan against 0.90 for Korona Kielce. Lech Poznan's attack/defence rating is 1.09/0.98 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.72/1.09 for Korona Kielce.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Lech Poznan at home · Korona Kielce away
League matches only, Ekstraklasa, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ekstraklasa matches this season: Lech Poznan 8, Korona Kielce 9.
Lech Poznan score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); Korona Kielce have let in 1 there.
Korona Kielce score most often in the 16–30 minute window (6 goals); Lech Poznan have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Lech Poznan
- vs Sunderland22 Oct · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 46%
- at Legia Warszawa25 Oct · Ekstraklasawin 33%
- vs Wisla Krakow31 Oct · Ekstraklasawin 49%
Korona Kielce
- vs GKS Katowice24 Oct · Ekstraklasawin 38%
- at Zaglebie Lubin31 Oct · Ekstraklasawin 30%
- vs Radomiak Radom7 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 49%
- at Piast Gliwice21 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 31%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.