Motor Lublin
vs
Zaglebie Lubin
Ekstraklasa prediction
Our model says: Motor Lublin 1–0 Zaglebie Lubin
The model makes it 40% Motor Lublin, 29% draw, 31% Zaglebie Lubin — fair odds of 2.50, 3.45 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Motor Lublin 1.33, Zaglebie Lubin 1.12.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 44%, under 2.5: 56%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Motor Lublin are 14th on 9 points from 10 games; Zaglebie Lubin are 9th on 15 points from 10 games — Ekstraklasa.
- Motor Lublin have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-2 win away to Radomiak Radom.
- Zaglebie Lubin have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat away to Cracovia Krakow.
- Last 5 meetings: Motor Lublin 4 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 20 March 2026, ended Motor Lublin 1–0 Zaglebie Lubin.
More Ekstraklasa predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Motor Lublin vs Zaglebie Lubin
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Motor Lublin at 40% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Motor Lublin vs Zaglebie Lubin
Motor Lublin
- W3-2away to Radomiak Radom12 October 2026
- D0-0Gornik Zabrze19 September 2026
- L1-2away to Raków Częstochowa11 September 2026
- L2-3Legia Warszawa5 September 2026
- L0-2Piast Gliwice29 August 2026
Zaglebie Lubin
- L1-3away to Cracovia Krakow10 October 2026
- L0-2Wisla Plock20 September 2026
- W3-2away to Raków Częstochowa15 September 2026
- W2-1GKS Katowice12 September 2026
- D1-1away to Wieczysta Kraków7 September 2026
What these results say
- Motor Lublin failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Motor Lublin conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Zaglebie Lubin conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Zaglebie Lubin scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Zaglebie Lubin.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Motor Lublin | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 17 | -5 | 9 |
| 9 | Zaglebie Lubin | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Motor Lublin
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 27% today
Zaglebie Lubin
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 6% today
From our Ekstraklasa season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Motor Lublin vs Zaglebie Lubin
- 20 March 2026Motor Lublin 1–0 Zaglebie LubinEkstraklasa
- 21 September 2025Zaglebie Lubin 2–2 Motor LublinEkstraklasa
- 18 May 2025Motor Lublin 1–0 Zaglebie LubinEkstraklasa
- 22 November 2024Zaglebie Lubin 1–2 Motor LublinEkstraklasa
- 19 October 2022Motor Lublin 1–0 Zaglebie LubinCup
Leading scorers: Motor Lublin and Zaglebie Lubin
Motor Lublin
GoalsAssists
- K. Czubak60
Zaglebie Lubin
No player in Ekstraklasa's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Motor Lublin carry a model rating of 6.55 against 6.61 for Zaglebie Lubin. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.33 goals for Motor Lublin and 1.12 for Zaglebie Lubin. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Motor Lublin rate 0.75 in attack and 1.37 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Zaglebie Lubin rate 0.64 and 1.07.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Zaglebie Lubin, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Motor Lublin a 0% chance of the title and Zaglebie Lubin 0.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Motor Lublin the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Motor Lublin against 1.12 for Zaglebie Lubin. Motor Lublin's attack/defence rating is 0.75/1.37 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.64/1.07 for Zaglebie Lubin.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Motor Lublin at home · Zaglebie Lubin away
League matches only, Ekstraklasa, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Motor LublinZaglebie Lubin
Motor Lublin are 14th after 10 Ekstraklasa matches (between 6th and 16th so far); Zaglebie Lubin are 8th after 10 (between 1st and 8th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ekstraklasa matches this season: Motor Lublin 10, Zaglebie Lubin 10.
Zaglebie Lubin score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Motor Lublin have let in 8 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Motor Lublin
- vs Raków Częstochowa27 Oct · Cupwin 44%
- at Cracovia Krakow31 Oct · Ekstraklasawin 30%
- vs Wisla Plock7 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 47%
- at Wieczysta Kraków21 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 28%
- at Wisla Krakow28 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 23%
Zaglebie Lubin
- vs Korona Kielce31 Oct · Ekstraklasawin 40%
- at Lech Poznan7 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 16%
- vs Gornik Zabrze21 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 30%
- at Widzew Łódź28 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 28%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.