Kilmarnock
vs
Aberdeen
Premiership prediction
Our model says: Kilmarnock 2–1 Aberdeen
The model makes it 43% Kilmarnock, 26% draw, 31% Aberdeen — fair odds of 2.33, 3.85 and 3.23.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Kilmarnock 1.65, Aberdeen 1.33.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Kilmarnock's rating is built from 51 Scottish Premiership matches and Aberdeen's from 50, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 543 matches.
Key facts
- Kilmarnock are bottom on 9 points from 13 games; Aberdeen are 11th on 11 points from 12 games — Premiership.
- Kilmarnock are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Celtic.
- Aberdeen are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-4 defeat at home to Hibernian.
- Last 6 meetings: Aberdeen 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 12 September 2026, ended Kilmarnock 1–1 Aberdeen.
More Scottish Premiership predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Kilmarnock vs Aberdeen
Has the model earned this number?
Kilmarnock at 43%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Kilmarnock vs Aberdeen
Kilmarnock
Premiership
- L0-1away to Celtic8 November 2026
- D2-2St Johnstone31 October 2026
- L1-3away to Dundee28 October 2026
- L0-3away to Falkirk24 October 2026
- W3-2Motherwell17 October 2026
Aberdeen
Premiership
- L0-4Hibernian7 November 2026
- L0-1Falkirk28 October 2026
- L2-3away to Dundee United24 October 2026
- W3-1St Mirren17 October 2026
- L0-1St Johnstone11 October 2026
What these results say
- Kilmarnock conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Kilmarnock failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Kilmarnock had three goals or more.
- Aberdeen conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Aberdeen failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Kilmarnock | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 13 | 29 | -16 | 9 |
| 11 | Aberdeen | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 12 | 18 | -6 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Kilmarnock
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 78% today
Aberdeen
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 61% today
From our Premiership season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Kilmarnock vs Aberdeen
- 12 September 2026Kilmarnock 1–1 AberdeenLeague Cup
- 5 September 2026Aberdeen 0–0 KilmarnockPremiership
- 25 April 2026Aberdeen 1–0 KilmarnockPremiership
- 31 January 2026Kilmarnock 3–0 AberdeenPremiership
- 14 December 2025Aberdeen 2–1 KilmarnockPremiership
- 29 October 2025Kilmarnock 0–1 AberdeenPremiership
Leading scorers: Kilmarnock and Aberdeen
Kilmarnock
GoalsAssists
- G. Kiltie30
Aberdeen
GoalsAssists
- K. Nisbet43
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Aberdeen (11th, with Kilmarnock 12th), while our numbers lean to Kilmarnock. Kilmarnock rate 0.58 in attack and 1.98 in defence, Aberdeen 0.51 and 1.68 (lower is better in defence), so Kilmarnock have been the better side in attack on recent expected goals, which the 2-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.
How the call on Kilmarnock v Aberdeen has moved
First published on 7 Nov at 39% / 27% / 34% (home / draw / away). After 1 update it reads 43% / 26% / 31%: the biggest move is Kilmarnock's chance of winning, up 4 points.
- Kilmarnock win43%▲ +4
- Draw26%▼ −1
- Aberdeen win31%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Kilmarnock the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Kilmarnock against 1.33 for Aberdeen. Kilmarnock's attack/defence rating is 0.58/1.98 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.51/1.68 for Aberdeen.
How the model reaches 43% for Kilmarnock to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Kilmarnock to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Kilmarnock's ratings change nothing and Aberdeen's ratings take away 1 point, which lands on the published 43%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Kilmarnock's ratings44%±0
- Aberdeen's ratings43%−1
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Kilmarnock at home · Aberdeen away
League matches only, Premiership, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
KilmarnockAberdeen
Kilmarnock are 12th after 13 Premiership matches (between 10th and 12th so far); Aberdeen are 11th after 12 (between 2nd and 11th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premiership matches this season: Kilmarnock 13, Aberdeen 12.
Kilmarnock score most often in the 61–75 minute window (4 goals); Aberdeen have let in 4 there.
Aberdeen score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Kilmarnock have let in 4 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Kilmarnock
- at St Mirren28 Nov · Premiershipwin 33%
- vs Hibernian2 Dec · Premiershipwin 32%
- at Motherwell5 Dec · Premiershipwin 22%
- vs Dundee12 Dec · Premiershipwin 35%
- at Dundee United19 Dec · Premiershipwin 23%
Aberdeen
- at Rangers24 Nov · Premiershipwin 11%
- vs Dundee28 Nov · Premiershipwin 35%
- at Heart of Midlothian2 Dec · Premiershipwin 18%
- vs Dundee United5 Dec · Premiershipwin 36%
- at Falkirk12 Dec · Premiershipwin 19%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.