Hibernian
vs
Dundee United
Premiership prediction
Our model says: Hibernian 2–1 Dundee United
The model makes it 47% Hibernian, 26% draw, 27% Dundee United — fair odds of 2.13, 3.85 and 3.70.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Hibernian 1.71, Dundee United 1.17.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Hibernian are 10th on 11 points from 12 games; Dundee United are 6th on 17 points from 12 games — Premiership.
- Hibernian have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 4-0 win away to Aberdeen.
- Dundee United are unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 won), most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Motherwell.
- Last 6 meetings: Hibernian 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 10 October 2026, ended Dundee United 1–0 Hibernian.
More Scottish Premiership predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Hibernian vs Dundee United
Has the model earned this number?
Hibernian at 47%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Hibernian vs Dundee United
Hibernian
Premiership
- W4-0away to Aberdeen7 November 2026
- D1-1away to St Mirren28 October 2026
- L1-2Celtic25 October 2026
- L1-2Falkirk17 October 2026
- L0-1away to Dundee United10 October 2026
Dundee United
Premiership
- D1-1Motherwell7 November 2026
- D2-2away to Celtic28 October 2026
- W3-2Aberdeen24 October 2026
- D1-1away to St Johnstone17 October 2026
- W1-0Hibernian10 October 2026
What these results say
- Hibernian failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Hibernian scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Hibernian conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Dundee United went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Dundee United scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Dundee United conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Hibernian | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 11 |
| 6 | Dundee United | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Hibernian
Chance to finish in the top six · 37% today
Dundee United
Chance to finish in the top six
From our Premiership season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Hibernian vs Dundee United
- 10 October 2026Dundee United 1–0 HibernianPremiership
- 4 February 2026Hibernian 3–2 Dundee UnitedPremiership
- 20 December 2025Dundee United 1–1 HibernianPremiership
- 13 September 2025Hibernian 3–3 Dundee UnitedPremiership
- 3 May 2025Hibernian 3–1 Dundee UnitedPremiership
- 26 February 2025Dundee United 1–3 HibernianPremiership
Leading scorers: Hibernian and Dundee United
Hibernian
GoalsAssists
- C. Wright31
Dundee United
GoalsAssists
- J. Randall33
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Dundee United (sixth, with Hibernian tenth), while our numbers lean to Hibernian. Hibernian rate 0.63 in attack and 1.41 in defence, Dundee United 0.63 and 1.60 (lower is better in defence), so Hibernian have been the better side in defence on recent expected goals, which the 6-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Hibernian a 0% chance of the title and Dundee United 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How the call on Hibernian v Dundee United has moved
First published on 7 Nov at 42% / 27% / 31% (home / draw / away). After 1 update it reads 47% / 26% / 27%: the biggest move is Hibernian's chance of winning, up 5 points.
- Hibernian win47%▲ +5
- Draw26%▼ −1
- Dundee United win27%▼ −4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Hibernian the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Hibernian against 1.17 for Dundee United. Hibernian's attack/defence rating is 0.63/1.41 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.63/1.6 for Dundee United.
How the model reaches 47% for Hibernian to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Hibernian to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Hibernian's ratings add 2 points and Dundee United's ratings add 2 points, which lands on the published 47%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level43%−1
- Hibernian's ratings45%+2
- Dundee United's ratings47%+2
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Hibernian at home · Dundee United away
League matches only, Premiership, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
HibernianDundee United
Hibernian are 10th after 12 Premiership matches (between 5th and 12th so far); Dundee United are 6th after 12 (between 1st and 11th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premiership matches this season: Hibernian 12, Dundee United 12.
Hibernian score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Dundee United have let in 0 there.
Dundee United score most often in the 31–45 minute window (7 goals); Hibernian have let in 7 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Hibernian
- vs Dundee24 Nov · Premiershipwin 46%
- at Motherwell28 Nov · Premiershipwin 32%
- at Kilmarnock2 Dec · Premiershipwin 42%
- vs Rangers7 Dec · Premiershipwin 28%
- at Celtic13 Dec · Premiershipwin 16%
Dundee United
- vs St Johnstone28 Nov · Premiershipwin 46%
- at Rangers2 Dec · Premiershipwin 15%
- at Aberdeen5 Dec · Premiershipwin 36%
- vs St Mirren12 Dec · Premiershipwin 53%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.