Regular Season - 14 · 21 November 2026, 20:00 UTC

Motherwell vs Rangers Premiership prediction

Fir Park, Motherwell

Our model says: Motherwell 1–2 Rangers

The model makes it 25% Motherwell, 26% draw, 49% Rangers — fair odds of 4.00, 3.85 and 2.04.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

Expected goals: Motherwell 1.18, Rangers 1.84.

Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.

One-sided: Rangers are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.

Published 7 November 2026 · updated 12 November 2026

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Motherwell's rating is built from 51 Scottish Premiership matches and Rangers's from 50, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 543 matches.

Key facts

Motherwell are 9th on 13 points from 13 games; Rangers are 2nd on 27 points from 12 games — Premiership.
Motherwell are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Dundee United.
Rangers are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 2-0 win away to St Mirren.
Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 5 September 2026, ended Rangers 1–0 Motherwell.

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Motherwell vs Rangers

59%

Both teams to score

58%

Over 2.5 goals

42%

Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Motherwell win Draw Rangers win

1–111%
1–210%
0–18%
0–28%
2–16%
1–36%
2–26%

Scores read Motherwell first; the other scorelines share the remaining 45%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Rangers at 49%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Motherwell vs Rangers

Motherwell

Premiership

D1-1away to Dundee United7 November 2026
W1-0St Mirren31 October 2026
D2-2away to St Johnstone28 October 2026
L0-2Heart of Midlothian25 October 2026
L2-3away to Kilmarnock17 October 2026

Rangers

Premiership

W2-0away to St Mirren7 November 2026
D2-2away to Heart of Midlothian28 October 2026
W4-0St Johnstone24 October 2026
D2-2away to Dundee17 October 2026
W3-1Kilmarnock10 October 2026

What these results say

Motherwell failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Motherwell scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Motherwell conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Rangers went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
Rangers scored in every one of these 5 matches.
4 of these 5 matches for Rangers had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Premiership table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
9	Motherwell	13	3	4	6	15	21	-6	13
2	Rangers	12	8	3	1	21	9	+12	27

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Motherwell

Chance to finish in the bottom three · 30% today

Win 21%

Draw 29%

Defeat 34%

Rangers

Chance to finish top of the regular season · 39% today

Win 42%

Draw 37%

Defeat 32%

From our Premiership season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Motherwell vs Rangers

5 September 2026Rangers 1–0 MotherwellPremiership
26 April 2026Rangers 2–3 MotherwellPremiership
11 February 2026Motherwell 1–1 RangersPremiership
27 December 2025Rangers 1–0 MotherwellPremiership
2 August 2025Motherwell 1–1 RangersPremiership
1 March 2025Rangers 1–2 MotherwellPremiership

Leading scorers: Motherwell and Rangers

Motherwell

GoalsAssists

A. Lowry31

Rangers

GoalsAssists

R. Naderi63
K. Kelsy40

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Motherwell a 0% chance of the title and Rangers 38.8%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Motherwell Rangers

0.61 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.93

1.5 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.14

1.18 Model expected goals (this match) 1.84

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Rangers the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Motherwell against 1.84 for Rangers. Motherwell's attack/defence rating is 0.61/1.5 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.93/1.14 for Rangers.

Motherwell carry a model rating of 6.4 against 6.75 for Rangers.

How the model reaches 49% for Rangers to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Rangers to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, Motherwell's ratings add 9 points and Rangers's ratings add 10 points, which lands on the published 49%.

Two average sides, neutral ground37%
Home advantage30%−7
Motherwell's ratings39%+9
Rangers's ratings49%+10

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Goal trends

MotherwellModelRangers

Over 1.5 goals

80%

8 of 10 games

81%

model, this match

60%

6 of 10 games

Over 2.5 goals

50%

5 of 10 games

58%

model, this match

50%

5 of 10 games

Over 3.5 goals

30%

3 of 10 games

36%

model, this match

40%

4 of 10 games

Both teams score

40%

4 of 10 games

59%

model, this match

40%

4 of 10 games

Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.

Season stats

MotherwellRangers

13Matches12

3W 4D 6LRecord8W 3D 1L

15 1.2 per gameGoals scored21 1.8 per game

21 1.6 per gameGoals conceded9 0.8 per game

3 of 13Clean sheets6 of 12

5 of 13Failed to score0 of 12

3 of 4Penalties scored2 of 3

23 1.8 per gameYellow cards22 1.8 per game

4-2-3-1 10×Usual shape4-2-3-1 8×

Motherwell at home · Rangers away

6Played7

2W 1D 3LRecord4W 3D 0L

4–8Goals for – against11–6

3 of 6Clean sheets3 of 7

League matches only, Premiership, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Position by match

MotherwellRangers

Motherwell are 9th after 13 Premiership matches (between 3rd and 10th so far); Rangers are 2nd after 12 (between 1st and 9th). How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Premiership matches this season: Motherwell 13, Rangers 12.

Motherwell scored 233222

Rangers conceded 102212

Rangers scored 344243

Motherwell conceded 335513

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

Motherwell

vs Hibernian28 Nov · Premiershipwin 40%
at Falkirk2 Dec · Premiershipwin 25%
vs Kilmarnock5 Dec · Premiershipwin 54%
at Heart of Midlothian13 Dec · Premiershipwin 24%
vs Dundee19 Dec · Premiershipwin 43%

Rangers

vs Aberdeen24 Nov · Premiershipwin 71%
vs Falkirk28 Nov · Premiershipwin 59%
vs Dundee United2 Dec · Premiershipwin 65%
at Hibernian7 Dec · Premiershipwin 46%
at St Johnstone13 Dec · Premiershipwin 53%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.