Regular Season - 14 · 21 November 2026, 15:00 UTC

Falkirk vs St Johnstone Premiership prediction

Falkirk Stadium, Falkirk

Our model says: Falkirk 2–1 St Johnstone

The model makes it 53% Falkirk, 24% draw, 23% St Johnstone — fair odds of 1.89, 4.17 and 4.35.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Expected goals: Falkirk 1.99, St Johnstone 1.14.

Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.

Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.

Edge to Falkirk: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published 7 November 2026 · updated 11 November 2026

Key facts

Falkirk are 3rd on 21 points from 13 games; St Johnstone are 7th on 17 points from 13 games — Premiership.
Falkirk are unbeaten in their last 5 games (5 won), most recently a 5-2 win away to Heart of Midlothian.
St Johnstone are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Dundee.
Last 3 meetings: level at 1 win each, 1 draw; the most recent, 19 September 2026, ended St Johnstone 1–1 Falkirk.

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Falkirk vs St Johnstone

59%

Both teams to score

61%

Over 2.5 goals

39%

Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Falkirk win Draw St Johnstone win

1–110%
2–110%
2–09%
1–08%
3–17%
3–06%
1–26%

Scores read Falkirk first; the other scorelines share the remaining 45%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Falkirk at 53%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Falkirk vs St Johnstone

Falkirk

Premiership

W5-2away to Heart of Midlothian8 November 2026
W2-0Celtic1 November 2026
W1-0away to Aberdeen28 October 2026
W3-0Kilmarnock24 October 2026
W2-1away to Hibernian17 October 2026

St Johnstone

Premiership

W2-1Dundee7 November 2026
D2-2away to Kilmarnock31 October 2026
D2-2Motherwell28 October 2026
L0-4away to Rangers24 October 2026
D1-1Dundee United17 October 2026

What these results say

Falkirk won every one of these 5 matches.
Falkirk scored in every one of these 5 matches.
St Johnstone conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
St Johnstone failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
St Johnstone scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Premiership table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
3	Falkirk	13	6	3	4	20	14	+6	21
7	St Johnstone	13	4	5	4	17	20	-3	17

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Falkirk

Chance to finish in the top six · 89% today

Win 92%

Draw 89%

Defeat 82%

St Johnstone

Chance to finish in the top six

Win 50%

Draw 39%

Defeat 34%

From our Premiership season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Falkirk vs St Johnstone

19 September 2026St Johnstone 1–1 FalkirkPremiership
8 July 2025St Johnstone 0–1 FalkirkFriendlies Clubs
24 July 2018St Johnstone 1–0 FalkirkLeague Cup

Leading scorers: Falkirk and St Johnstone

Falkirk

GoalsAssists

J. Murrell70

St Johnstone

GoalsAssists

J. Fowler61

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Falkirk a 0.4% chance of the title and St Johnstone 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

How the call on Falkirk v St Johnstone has moved

First published on 7 Nov at 51% / 26% / 23% (home / draw / away). After 2 updates it reads 53% / 24% / 23%: the biggest move is Falkirk's chance of winning, up 2 points.

Falkirk win53%▲ +2
Draw24%▼ −2
St Johnstone win23%=

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Falkirk St Johnstone

0.71 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.6

1.44 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.66

1.99 Model expected goals (this match) 1.14

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Falkirk the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.99 expected goals for Falkirk against 1.14 for St Johnstone. Falkirk's attack/defence rating is 0.71/1.44 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.6/1.66 for St Johnstone.

Falkirk carry a model rating of 6.5 against 6.34 for St Johnstone.

How the model reaches 53% for Falkirk to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Falkirk to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Falkirk's ratings add 4 points and St Johnstone's ratings add 5 points, which lands on the published 53%.

Two average sides, neutral ground36%
Home advantage44%+8
Falkirk's ratings48%+4
St Johnstone's ratings53%+5

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Goal trends

FalkirkModelSt Johnstone

Over 1.5 goals

90%

9 of 10 games

82%

model, this match

80%

8 of 10 games

Over 2.5 goals

60%

6 of 10 games

61%

model, this match

50%

5 of 10 games

Over 3.5 goals

10%

1 of 10 games

38%

model, this match

30%

3 of 10 games

Both teams score

70%

7 of 10 games

59%

model, this match

70%

7 of 10 games

Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.

Season stats

FalkirkSt Johnstone

13Matches13

6W 3D 4LRecord4W 5D 4L

20 1.5 per gameGoals scored17 1.3 per game

14 1.1 per gameGoals conceded20 1.5 per game

4 of 13Clean sheets1 of 13

2 of 13Failed to score3 of 13

1 of 1Penalties scored2 of 3

28 2.2 per gameYellow cards19 1.5 per game

0Red cards3

4-2-3-1 13×Usual shape4-2-3-1 6×

Falkirk at home · St Johnstone away

6Played6

3W 0D 3LRecord1W 2D 3L

9–7Goals for – against5–10

2 of 6Clean sheets1 of 6

League matches only, Premiership, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Position by match

FalkirkSt Johnstone

Falkirk are 3rd after 13 Premiership matches (between 3rd and 12th so far); St Johnstone are 7th after 13 (between 2nd and 8th). How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Premiership matches this season: Falkirk 13, St Johnstone 13.

Falkirk scored 515320

St Johnstone conceded 223543

St Johnstone scored 243323

Falkirk conceded 332233

St Johnstone score most often in the 16–30 minute window (4 goals); Falkirk have let in 3 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

Falkirk

at Rangers28 Nov · Premiershipwin 19%
vs Motherwell2 Dec · Premiershipwin 49%
at Dundee5 Dec · Premiershipwin 36%
vs Aberdeen12 Dec · Premiershipwin 57%
at St Mirren19 Dec · Premiershipwin 46%

St Johnstone

at Dundee United28 Nov · Premiershipwin 28%
vs St Mirren2 Dec · Premiershipwin 51%
at Celtic5 Dec · Premiershipwin 12%
vs Rangers13 Dec · Premiershipwin 23%
at Hibernian19 Dec · Premiershipwin 25%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.