Dundee
vs
Heart of Midlothian
Premiership prediction
Our model says: Dundee 1–2 Heart of Midlothian
The model makes it 37% Dundee, 25% draw, 38% Heart of Midlothian — fair odds of 2.70, 4.00 and 2.63.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Dundee 1.78, Heart of Midlothian 1.80.
Both teams to score: 70%. Over 2.5 goals: 69%, under 2.5: 31%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,304 settled matches.
A tight game: Dundee and Heart of Midlothian are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Dundee are 5th on 17 points from 12 games; Heart of Midlothian are 4th on 20 points from 12 games — Premiership.
- Dundee have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to St Johnstone.
- Heart of Midlothian have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-5 defeat at home to Falkirk.
- Last 6 meetings: Heart of Midlothian 5 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 6 September 2026, ended Heart of Midlothian 2–1 Dundee.
More Scottish Premiership predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Dundee vs Heart of Midlothian
Has the model earned this number?
Heart of Midlothian at 38%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Dundee vs Heart of Midlothian
Dundee
Premiership
- L1-2away to St Johnstone7 November 2026
- W3-1Kilmarnock28 October 2026
- L1-2away to St Mirren24 October 2026
- D2-2Rangers17 October 2026
- W2-1away to Falkirk10 October 2026
Heart of Midlothian
Premiership
- L2-5Falkirk8 November 2026
- D2-2Rangers28 October 2026
- W2-0away to Motherwell25 October 2026
- L1-7away to Celtic18 October 2026
- W5-0St Mirren10 October 2026
What these results say
- Dundee scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Dundee conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Dundee had three goals or more.
- Heart of Midlothian scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Heart of Midlothian had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Dundee | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 18 | 15 | +3 | 17 |
| 4 | Heart of Midlothian | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 26 | 22 | +4 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Dundee
Chance to finish in the top six · 53% today
Heart of Midlothian
Chance to finish in the top six
From our Premiership season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Dundee vs Heart of Midlothian
- 6 September 2026Heart of Midlothian 2–1 DundeePremiership
- 21 March 2026Heart of Midlothian 1–0 DundeePremiership
- 11 January 2026Dundee 0–1 Heart of MidlothianPremiership
- 1 November 2025Heart of Midlothian 4–0 DundeePremiership
- 26 April 2025Heart of Midlothian 0–1 DundeePremiership
- 7 March 2025Heart of Midlothian 3–1 DundeeFA Cup
Leading scorers: Dundee and Heart of Midlothian
Dundee
GoalsAssists
- B. Fink40
- J. Westley40
Heart of Midlothian
GoalsAssists
- Cláudio Braga62
- C. Miller51
- J. McPake36
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Dundee a 0% chance of the title and Heart of Midlothian 1.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How the call on Dundee v Heart of Midlothian has moved
First published on 7 Nov at 34% / 25% / 41% (home / draw / away). After 1 update it reads 37% / 25% / 38%: the biggest move is Dundee's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Dundee win37%▲ +3
- Draw25%=
- Heart of Midlothian win38%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Heart of Midlothian the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Dundee against 1.80 for Heart of Midlothian. Dundee's attack/defence rating is 0.64/1.59 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.86/1.64 for Heart of Midlothian.
How the model reaches 38% for Heart of Midlothian to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Heart of Midlothian to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Dundee's ratings add 3 points and Heart of Midlothian's ratings add 4 points, which lands on the published 38%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage30%−7
- Both sides at this match's level31%+1
- Dundee's ratings34%+3
- Heart of Midlothian's ratings38%+4
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Dundee at home · Heart of Midlothian away
League matches only, Premiership, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
DundeeHeart of Midlothian
Dundee are 5th after 12 Premiership matches (between 2nd and 11th so far); Heart of Midlothian are 4th after 12 (between 2nd and 11th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premiership matches this season: Dundee 12, Heart of Midlothian 12.
Heart of Midlothian score most often in the 46–60 minute window (6 goals); Dundee have let in 3 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Dundee
- at Hibernian24 Nov · Premiershipwin 27%
- at Aberdeen28 Nov · Premiershipwin 37%
- vs Celtic2 Dec · Premiershipwin 24%
- vs Falkirk5 Dec · Premiershipwin 38%
- at Kilmarnock12 Dec · Premiershipwin 39%
Heart of Midlothian
- vs Monaco26 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 25%
- vs Celtic29 Nov · Premiershipwin 31%
- vs Aberdeen2 Dec · Premiershipwin 61%
- at St Mirren5 Dec · Premiershipwin 50%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.