Celtic
vs
St Mirren
Premiership prediction
Our model says: Celtic 2–0 St Mirren
The model makes it 74% Celtic, 17% draw, 9% St Mirren — fair odds of 1.35, 5.88 and 11.11.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (13%).
Expected goals: Celtic 2.66, St Mirren 0.62.
Both teams to score: 43%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
One-sided: Celtic are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Celtic are top on 31 points from 13 games; St Mirren are 8th on 14 points from 13 games — Premiership.
- Celtic have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Kilmarnock.
- St Mirren are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Rangers.
- Last 6 meetings: Celtic 5 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 5 September 2026, ended St Mirren 1–2 Celtic.
More Scottish Premiership predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Celtic vs St Mirren
Has the model earned this number?
Celtic at 74%: of 501 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.5% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Celtic vs St Mirren
Celtic
Premiership
- W1-0Kilmarnock8 November 2026
- L0-2away to Falkirk1 November 2026
- D2-2Dundee United28 October 2026
- W2-1away to Hibernian25 October 2026
- W7-1Heart of Midlothian18 October 2026
St Mirren
Premiership
- L0-2Rangers7 November 2026
- L0-1away to Motherwell31 October 2026
- D1-1Hibernian28 October 2026
- W2-1Dundee24 October 2026
- L1-3away to Aberdeen17 October 2026
What these results say
- Celtic scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Celtic conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- St Mirren conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- St Mirren failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtic | 13 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 28 | 10 | +18 | 31 |
| 8 | St Mirren | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 12 | 22 | -10 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Celtic
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 59% today
St Mirren
Chance to finish in the bottom three
From our Premiership season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Celtic vs St Mirren
- 5 September 2026St Mirren 1–2 CelticPremiership
- 19 April 2026Celtic 6–2 St MirrenFA Cup
- 11 April 2026Celtic 1–0 St MirrenPremiership
- 14 December 2025St Mirren 3–1 CelticLeague Cup
- 22 November 2025St Mirren 0–1 CelticPremiership
- 3 August 2025Celtic 1–0 St MirrenPremiership
Leading scorers: Celtic and St Mirren
Celtic
GoalsAssists
- C. Durán76
- B. Nygren64
- K. Høgh33
St Mirren
No player in Premiership's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Celtic a 59.3% chance of the title and St Mirren 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Celtic the highest probability at 74%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.66 expected goals for Celtic against 0.62 for St Mirren. Celtic's attack/defence rating is 0.94/1.09 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.43/1.67 for St Mirren.
How the model reaches 74% for Celtic to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Celtic to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, Celtic's ratings add 18 points and St Mirren's ratings add 14 points, which lands on the published 74%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level42%−2
- Celtic's ratings60%+18
- St Mirren's ratings74%+14
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Celtic at home · St Mirren away
League matches only, Premiership, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
CelticSt Mirren
Celtic are 1st after 13 Premiership matches (between 1st and 5th so far); St Mirren are 8th after 13 (between 1st and 8th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premiership matches this season: Celtic 13, St Mirren 13.
Celtic score most often in the 31–45 minute window (8 goals); St Mirren have let in 2 there.
St Mirren score most often in the 31–45 minute window (3 goals); Celtic have let in 4 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Celtic
- at Torreense26 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 47%
- at Heart of Midlothian29 Nov · Premiershipwin 45%
- at Dundee2 Dec · Premiershipwin 51%
- vs St Johnstone5 Dec · Premiershipwin 69%
- at Omonia Nicosia10 Dec · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 19%
St Mirren
- vs Kilmarnock28 Nov · Premiershipwin 39%
- at St Johnstone2 Dec · Premiershipwin 22%
- vs Heart of Midlothian5 Dec · Premiershipwin 25%
- at Dundee United12 Dec · Premiershipwin 21%
- vs Falkirk19 Dec · Premiershipwin 26%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.