Kheybar Khorramabad
vs
Sepahan FC
Persian Gulf Pro League prediction
Our model says: Kheybar Khorramabad 1–2 Sepahan FC
The model makes it 32% Kheybar Khorramabad, 25% draw, 43% Sepahan FC — fair odds of 3.13, 4.00 and 2.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Kheybar Khorramabad 1.53, Sepahan FC 1.86.
Both teams to score: 67%. Over 2.5 goals: 66%, under 2.5: 34%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Edge to Sepahan FC: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Key facts
- Kheybar Khorramabad are 12th on 8 points from 8 games; Sepahan FC are 4th on 16 points from 8 games — Persian Gulf Pro League.
- Kheybar Khorramabad are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Persepolis FC.
- Sepahan FC are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 2-1 win away to ZOB Ahan.
- Last 6 meetings: Sepahan FC 5 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 6 February 2026, ended Sepahan FC 1–0 Kheybar Khorramabad.
More Persian Gulf Pro League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Kheybar Khorramabad vs Sepahan FC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sepahan FC at 43% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Kheybar Khorramabad vs Sepahan FC
Kheybar Khorramabad
- D0-0Persepolis FC14 October 2026
- D2-2away to Chadormalu SC9 October 2026
- L0-1away to Nassaji Mazandaran7 September 2026
- W2-0Foolad FC2 September 2026
- D2-2away to Aluminium Arak28 August 2026
Sepahan FC
- W2-1away to ZOB Ahan13 October 2026
- W6-1Fajr Sepasi8 October 2026
- W1-0Esteghlal Khuzestan6 September 2026
- D0-0away to Sanat Naft2 September 2026
- W2-0Gol Gohar28 August 2026
What these results say
- Kheybar Khorramabad failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sepahan FC went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Sepahan FC won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sepahan FC scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Persian Gulf Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Kheybar Khorramabad | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 8 |
| 4 | Sepahan FC | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 6 | +7 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Kheybar Khorramabad vs Sepahan FC
- 6 February 2026Sepahan FC 1–0 Kheybar KhorramabadPersian Gulf Pro League
- 21 December 2025Sepahan FC 1–3 Kheybar KhorramabadHazfi Cup
- 26 September 2025Kheybar Khorramabad 0–1 Sepahan FCPersian Gulf Pro League
- 26 January 2025Sepahan FC 2–0 Kheybar KhorramabadPersian Gulf Pro League
- 23 August 2024Kheybar Khorramabad 1–2 Sepahan FCPersian Gulf Pro League
- 30 September 2019Kheybar Khorramabad 0–3 Sepahan FCHazfi Cup
The two sides
Kheybar Khorramabad carry a model rating of 6.37 against 6.62 for Sepahan FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.53 goals for Kheybar Khorramabad and 1.86 for Sepahan FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Kheybar Khorramabad rate 0.69 in attack and 1.82 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sepahan FC rate 0.85 and 1.36.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Kheybar Khorramabad a 0% chance of the title and Sepahan FC 16.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,821 correct results out of 3,803 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sepahan FC the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Kheybar Khorramabad against 1.86 for Sepahan FC. Kheybar Khorramabad's attack/defence rating is 0.69/1.82 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.85/1.36 for Sepahan FC.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Kheybar Khorramabad at home · Sepahan FC away
League matches only, Persian Gulf Pro League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Persian Gulf Pro League matches this season: Kheybar Khorramabad 8, Sepahan FC 8.
Kheybar Khorramabad score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Sepahan FC have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
Next match, by difficulty
Kheybar Khorramabad
- at Tractor Sazi7 Nov · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 15%
Sepahan FC
- vs Malavan6 Nov · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 66%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.