Sanat Naft
vs
Aluminium Arak
Persian Gulf Pro League prediction
Our model says: Sanat Naft 0–1 Aluminium Arak
The model makes it 28% Sanat Naft, 28% draw, 44% Aluminium Arak — fair odds of 3.57, 3.57 and 2.27. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Sanat Naft 1.06, Aluminium Arak 1.49.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: Medium.
One-sided: Aluminium Arak are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Sanat Naft are bottom on 4 points from 8 games; Aluminium Arak are 6th on 13 points from 8 games — Persian Gulf Pro League.
- Sanat Naft have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat away to Persepolis FC.
- Aluminium Arak are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Fajr Sepasi.
- Last 6 meetings: Aluminium Arak 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 23 November 2024, ended Sanat Naft 1–0 Aluminium Arak.
More Persian Gulf Pro League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Sanat Naft vs Aluminium Arak
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Aluminium Arak at 44% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Sanat Naft vs Aluminium Arak
Sanat Naft
- L1-3away to Persepolis FC9 October 2026
- L1-2Chadormalu SC12 September 2026
- L0-2away to Paykan6 September 2026
- D0-0Sepahan FC2 September 2026
- D0-0away to Mes Shahr-e Babak29 August 2026
Aluminium Arak
- L1-2away to Fajr Sepasi13 October 2026
- D1-1Malavan8 October 2026
- D0-0Esteghlal FC6 September 2026
- W2-0away to Gol Gohar1 September 2026
- D2-2Kheybar Khorramabad28 August 2026
What these results say
- Sanat Naft did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Aluminium Arak failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Aluminium Arak scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Persian Gulf Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Sanat Naft | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 11 | -8 | 4 |
| 6 | Aluminium Arak | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 6 | +4 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Sanat Naft
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 87% today
Aluminium Arak
Chance to finish in the top four · 16% today
From our Persian Gulf Pro League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Sanat Naft vs Aluminium Arak
- 23 November 2024Sanat Naft 1–0 Aluminium ArakHazfi Cup
- 11 May 2024Aluminium Arak 1–1 Sanat NaftPersian Gulf Pro League
- 8 December 2023Sanat Naft 1–2 Aluminium ArakPersian Gulf Pro League
- 27 January 2023Aluminium Arak 3–1 Sanat NaftPersian Gulf Pro League
- 19 August 2022Sanat Naft 0–1 Aluminium ArakPersian Gulf Pro League
- 14 May 2022Aluminium Arak 2–1 Sanat NaftPersian Gulf Pro League
The two sides
Sanat Naft carry a model rating of 6.1 against 6.41 for Aluminium Arak. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.06 goals for Sanat Naft and 1.49 for Aluminium Arak. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sanat Naft rate 0.43 in attack and 1.96 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Aluminium Arak rate 0.63 and 1.51.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Sanat Naft a 0% chance of the title and Aluminium Arak 0.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Aluminium Arak the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Sanat Naft against 1.49 for Aluminium Arak. Sanat Naft's attack/defence rating is 0.43/1.96 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.63/1.51 for Aluminium Arak.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Sanat Naft at home · Aluminium Arak away
League matches only, Persian Gulf Pro League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Persian Gulf Pro League matches this season: Sanat Naft 8, Aluminium Arak 8.
Aluminium Arak score most often in the 31–45 minute window (4 goals); Sanat Naft have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Sanat Naft
- at Tractor Sazi21 Oct · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 9%
- vs Gol Gohar31 Oct · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 25%
- at Shams Azar Qazvin5 Nov · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 20%
Aluminium Arak
- vs ZOB Ahan23 Oct · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 52%
- at Foolad FC30 Oct · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 25%
- vs Mes Shahr-e Babak6 Nov · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 58%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.