Shams Azar Qazvin
vs
Sepahan FC
Persian Gulf Pro League prediction
Our model says: Shams Azar Qazvin 1–2 Sepahan FC
The model makes it 28% Shams Azar Qazvin, 26% draw, 46% Sepahan FC — fair odds of 3.57, 3.85 and 2.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Shams Azar Qazvin 1.26, Sepahan FC 1.74.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: Medium.
One-sided: Sepahan FC are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Shams Azar Qazvin are 15th on 6 points from 8 games; Sepahan FC are 4th on 16 points from 8 games — Persian Gulf Pro League.
- Shams Azar Qazvin are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Paykan.
- Sepahan FC are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 2-1 win away to ZOB Ahan.
- Last 5 meetings: Sepahan FC 4 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 31 October 2025, ended Shams Azar Qazvin 0–1 Sepahan FC.
More Persian Gulf Pro League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Shams Azar Qazvin vs Sepahan FC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sepahan FC at 46% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Shams Azar Qazvin vs Sepahan FC
Shams Azar Qazvin
- D1-1away to Paykan10 October 2026
- L2-3Gol Gohar10 September 2026
- L0-1away to Chadormalu SC6 September 2026
- D0-0Tractor Sazi1 September 2026
- W2-0away to Nassaji Mazandaran28 August 2026
Sepahan FC
- W2-1away to ZOB Ahan13 October 2026
- W6-1Fajr Sepasi8 October 2026
- W1-0Esteghlal Khuzestan6 September 2026
- D0-0away to Sanat Naft2 September 2026
- W2-0Gol Gohar28 August 2026
What these results say
- Shams Azar Qazvin failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Shams Azar Qazvin had two goals or fewer.
- Sepahan FC went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Sepahan FC won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sepahan FC scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Persian Gulf Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Shams Azar Qazvin | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 6 |
| 4 | Sepahan FC | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 6 | +7 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Shams Azar Qazvin
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 26% today
Sepahan FC
Chance to finish in the top four · 82% today
From our Persian Gulf Pro League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Shams Azar Qazvin vs Sepahan FC
- 31 October 2025Shams Azar Qazvin 0–1 Sepahan FCPersian Gulf Pro League
- 1 February 2025Shams Azar Qazvin 1–1 Sepahan FCPersian Gulf Pro League
- 30 August 2024Sepahan FC 1–0 Shams Azar QazvinPersian Gulf Pro League
- 1 June 2024Sepahan FC 4–1 Shams Azar QazvinPersian Gulf Pro League
- 4 March 2024Sepahan FC 3–0 Shams Azar QazvinHazfi Cup
The two sides
Shams Azar Qazvin carry a model rating of 6.3 against 6.62 for Sepahan FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.26 goals for Shams Azar Qazvin and 1.74 for Sepahan FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Shams Azar Qazvin rate 0.57 in attack and 1.70 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sepahan FC rate 0.85 and 1.36.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Shams Azar Qazvin a 0% chance of the title and Sepahan FC 17.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sepahan FC the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Shams Azar Qazvin against 1.74 for Sepahan FC. Shams Azar Qazvin's attack/defence rating is 0.57/1.7 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.85/1.36 for Sepahan FC.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Shams Azar Qazvin at home · Sepahan FC away
League matches only, Persian Gulf Pro League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Persian Gulf Pro League matches this season: Shams Azar Qazvin 8, Sepahan FC 8.
Shams Azar Qazvin score most often in the 31–45 minute window (3 goals); Sepahan FC have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Shams Azar Qazvin
- at Esteghlal Khuzestan25 Oct · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 35%
- at Esteghlal FC30 Oct · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 14%
- vs Sanat Naft5 Nov · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 55%
Sepahan FC
- vs Mes Shahr-e Babak25 Oct · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 72%
- at Kheybar Khorramabad30 Oct · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 43%
- vs Malavan6 Nov · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 67%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.