Nassaji Mazandaran
vs
Persepolis FC
Persian Gulf Pro League prediction
Our model says: Nassaji Mazandaran 0–1 Persepolis FC
The model makes it 27% Nassaji Mazandaran, 27% draw, 46% Persepolis FC — fair odds of 3.70, 3.70 and 2.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Nassaji Mazandaran 1.10, Persepolis FC 1.60.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: Medium.
One-sided: Persepolis FC are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Key facts
- Nassaji Mazandaran are 10th on 9 points from 8 games; Persepolis FC are top on 17 points from 8 games — Persian Gulf Pro League.
- Nassaji Mazandaran are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to ZOB Ahan.
- Persepolis FC are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 0-0 draw away to Kheybar Khorramabad.
- Last 6 meetings: Persepolis FC 5 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 11 April 2025, ended Nassaji Mazandaran 0–1 Persepolis FC.
More Persian Gulf Pro League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Nassaji Mazandaran vs Persepolis FC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Persepolis FC at 46% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Nassaji Mazandaran vs Persepolis FC
Nassaji Mazandaran
- D1-1ZOB Ahan8 October 2026
- D1-1away to Mes Shahr-e Babak13 September 2026
- W1-0Kheybar Khorramabad7 September 2026
- W1-0away to Malavan2 September 2026
- L0-2Shams Azar Qazvin28 August 2026
Persepolis FC
- D0-0away to Kheybar Khorramabad14 October 2026
- W3-1Sanat Naft9 October 2026
- W2-0ZOB Ahan7 September 2026
- D1-1away to Esteghlal FC2 September 2026
- W3-0Malavan29 August 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 5 matches for Nassaji Mazandaran had two goals or fewer.
- Nassaji Mazandaran scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Persepolis FC went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Persepolis FC scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Persian Gulf Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Nassaji Mazandaran | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 9 |
| 1 | Persepolis FC | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 4 | +11 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Nassaji Mazandaran vs Persepolis FC
- 11 April 2025Nassaji Mazandaran 0–1 Persepolis FCPersian Gulf Pro League
- 7 December 2024Persepolis FC 0–1 Nassaji MazandaranPersian Gulf Pro League
- 6 May 2024Nassaji Mazandaran 1–2 Persepolis FCPersian Gulf Pro League
- 28 December 2023Persepolis FC 1–0 Nassaji MazandaranPersian Gulf Pro League
- 18 May 2023Nassaji Mazandaran 0–4 Persepolis FCPersian Gulf Pro League
- 5 January 2023Persepolis FC 5–1 Nassaji MazandaranPersian Gulf Pro League
The two sides
Nassaji Mazandaran carry a model rating of 6.29 against 6.62 for Persepolis FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.10 goals for Nassaji Mazandaran and 1.60 for Persepolis FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Nassaji Mazandaran rate 0.51 in attack and 1.58 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Persepolis FC rate 0.84 and 1.33.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Nassaji Mazandaran a 0% chance of the title and Persepolis FC 31.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,821 correct results out of 3,803 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Persepolis FC the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Nassaji Mazandaran against 1.60 for Persepolis FC. Nassaji Mazandaran's attack/defence rating is 0.51/1.58 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.84/1.33 for Persepolis FC.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Nassaji Mazandaran at home · Persepolis FC away
League matches only, Persian Gulf Pro League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Persian Gulf Pro League matches this season: Nassaji Mazandaran 8, Persepolis FC 8.
Nassaji Mazandaran score most often in the 76–90 minute window (2 goals); Persepolis FC have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
Next match, by difficulty
Nassaji Mazandaran
- at Paykan7 Nov · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 27%
Persepolis FC
- vs Fajr Sepasi6 Nov · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 68%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.