Foolad FC
vs
Nassaji Mazandaran
Persian Gulf Pro League prediction
Our model says: Foolad FC 1–0 Nassaji Mazandaran
The model makes it 54% Foolad FC, 26% draw, 20% Nassaji Mazandaran — fair odds of 1.85, 3.85 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (12%).
Expected goals: Foolad FC 1.75, Nassaji Mazandaran 0.85.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Foolad FC: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Foolad FC are 5th on 15 points from 8 games; Nassaji Mazandaran are 10th on 9 points from 8 games — Persian Gulf Pro League.
- Foolad FC are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to Malavan.
- Nassaji Mazandaran are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to ZOB Ahan.
- Last 6 meetings: Foolad FC 5 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 21 January 2025, ended Foolad FC 1–0 Nassaji Mazandaran.
More Persian Gulf Pro League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Foolad FC vs Nassaji Mazandaran
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Foolad FC at 54% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Foolad FC vs Nassaji Mazandaran
Foolad FC
- W2-1away to Malavan13 October 2026
- W2-1Mes Shahr-e Babak8 October 2026
- W1-0Fajr Sepasi7 September 2026
- L0-2away to Kheybar Khorramabad2 September 2026
- D0-0Esteghlal FC28 August 2026
Nassaji Mazandaran
- D1-1ZOB Ahan8 October 2026
- D1-1away to Mes Shahr-e Babak13 September 2026
- W1-0Kheybar Khorramabad7 September 2026
- W1-0away to Malavan2 September 2026
- L0-2Shams Azar Qazvin28 August 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 5 matches for Nassaji Mazandaran had two goals or fewer.
- Nassaji Mazandaran scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Persian Gulf Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Foolad FC | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 15 |
| 10 | Nassaji Mazandaran | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Foolad FC
Chance to finish in the top four · 31% today
Nassaji Mazandaran
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 5% today
From our Persian Gulf Pro League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Foolad FC vs Nassaji Mazandaran
- 21 January 2025Foolad FC 1–0 Nassaji MazandaranPersian Gulf Pro League
- 16 August 2024Nassaji Mazandaran 0–1 Foolad FCPersian Gulf Pro League
- 1 June 2024Nassaji Mazandaran 0–1 Foolad FCPersian Gulf Pro League
- 3 January 2024Foolad FC 1–0 Nassaji MazandaranPersian Gulf Pro League
- 6 April 2023Foolad FC 2–0 Nassaji MazandaranPersian Gulf Pro League
- 20 October 2022Nassaji Mazandaran 2–1 Foolad FCPersian Gulf Pro League
The two sides
Foolad FC carry a model rating of 6.5 against 6.29 for Nassaji Mazandaran. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.75 goals for Foolad FC and 0.85 for Nassaji Mazandaran. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Foolad FC rate 0.68 in attack and 1.38 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Nassaji Mazandaran rate 0.51 and 1.58.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Foolad FC a 2.8% chance of the title and Nassaji Mazandaran 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Foolad FC the highest probability at 54%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Foolad FC against 0.85 for Nassaji Mazandaran. Foolad FC's attack/defence rating is 0.68/1.38 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.51/1.58 for Nassaji Mazandaran.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Foolad FC at home · Nassaji Mazandaran away
League matches only, Persian Gulf Pro League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Persian Gulf Pro League matches this season: Foolad FC 8, Nassaji Mazandaran 8.
Nassaji Mazandaran score most often in the 76–90 minute window (2 goals); Foolad FC have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Foolad FC
- at Persepolis FC25 Oct · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 23%
- vs Aluminium Arak30 Oct · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 48%
- at Chadormalu SC6 Nov · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 36%
Nassaji Mazandaran
- vs Fajr Sepasi25 Oct · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 46%
- vs Persepolis FC30 Oct · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 27%
- at Paykan7 Nov · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 27%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.