11 August 2026, 18:15 UTC

Celje vs Ararat-Armenia UEFA Champions League prediction & result

Celje
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Celje 2-0 Ararat-Armenia.

Before kick-off the model made it 55% Celje, 23% draw, 22% Ararat-Armenia — fair odds of 1.82, 4.35 and 4.55.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

The tie

Second leg of the UEFA Champions League 3rd Qualifying Round tie. First leg: Ararat-Armenia 2–1 Celje (4 Aug) →

Celje went through 3–2 on aggregate.

Has the model earned this number?

Celje at 55%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Celje99%Draw1%Ararat-Armenia0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

19'
Alwyn Tera
19'
Hugo Oliveira
Leonardo Koutris
32'
🔁L. Koutrisout: B. Verbic
46'
55'
🔁A. Teraout: Benny
Artemijus Tutyškinas
64'
Milot Avdyli
66'
🔁P. Sirvysout: Y. Dukuly
69'
🔁A. Kucysout: M. Poplatnik
69'
73'
🔁H. Oliveiraout: M. Carlier
73'
🔁A. Serobyanout: Franca Carlos
Mark Zabukovnik
79'
⚽Y. Dukulyassist: M. Avdyli
83'
⚽B. Verbic
85'
Benjamin Verbič
86'
89'
🔁Z. Banjaquiout: A. Ndour
🔁S. Seslarout: I. Calusic
90+1'
90'
🔁K. Muradyanout: J. A. Balanta

Match stats — Celje vs Ararat-Armenia

50%Possession50%
8On target3
12Corners9

Line-ups

Celje 4-3-3
  • 1Z. LebanG
  • 2P. SirvysD
  • 4D. HrkaM
  • 6A. TutyskinasD
  • 33L. KoutrisD
  • 8M. KvesicM
  • 19M. ZabukovnikM
  • 10S. SeslarM
  • 77M. IvansekM
  • 47A. Kucys
  • 11M. AvdyliM
Substitutes
  • 12L. KolarG
  • 23Z. FrelihG
  • 3D. VuklisevicD
  • 7B. VerbicM
  • 17A. KotnikF
  • 20A. DionkouD
  • 25V. TushaM
  • 27I. CalusicD
  • 91Y. DukulyM
Coach: Vitor Campelos
Ararat-Armenia 4-3-3
  • 98Joao Bravim
  • 3Junior Julio
  • 43B. R. Wilson ValdezD
  • 47A. MalisD
  • 16E. GrigoryanD
  • 2H. OliveiraD
  • 19K. MuradyanM
  • 20A. TeraM
  • 77A. SerobyanM
  • 91Sandro LimaF
  • 11Z. BanjaquiM
Substitutes
  • 1A. NersesyanG
  • 5Luis FelipeD
  • 6M. AyvazyanM
  • 7Z. ShaghoyanM
  • 8J. A. BalantaM
  • 9A. EloyanF
  • 14B. PereiraD
  • 17M. CarlierM
  • 25A. NdourF
Coach: Tulipa

Form going into Celje vs Ararat-Armenia

Celje

All competitions we cover

  • L1-2away to Ararat-Armenia4 August 2026
  • D1-1Egnatia Rrogozhinë28 July 2026
  • D3-3away to Egnatia Rrogozhinë22 July 2026

Ararat-Armenia

All competitions we cover

  • W2-1Celje4 August 2026
  • L1-2away to Shamrock Rovers28 July 2026
  • W2-0Shamrock Rovers21 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Celje vs Ararat-Armenia

  • 4 August 2026Ararat-Armenia 2–1 CeljeUEFA Champions League
  • 24 September 2020Ararat-Armenia 1–0 CeljeUEFA Europa League

The result against the call

Celje beat Ararat-Armenia 2–0. The model had made a win for Celje its most likely outcome, at 55%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Y. Dukuly 83' for Celje, B. Verbic 85' for Celje.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.