Celje
vs
Ararat-Armenia
The model makes it 55% Celje, 23% draw, 22% Ararat-Armenia — fair odds of 1.82, 4.35 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Celje 1.97, Ararat-Armenia 1.19.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Celje vs Ararat-Armenia
- 4 August 2026Ararat-Armenia 2–1 CeljeUEFA Champions League
- 24 September 2020Ararat-Armenia 1–0 CeljeUEFA Europa League
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Celje carry a model rating of 6.28 against 6.18 for Ararat-Armenia. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Celje D-L; Ararat-Armenia W-L-W-L-W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.97 goals for Celje and 1.19 for Ararat-Armenia. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Celje rate 0.57 in attack and 1.77 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Ararat-Armenia rate 0.48 and 1.83.
That points to 61% for over two and a half goals and 60% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 241 correct results out of 502 settled predictions (48%), with 50 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Celje the highest probability at 55%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.97 expected goals for Celje against 1.19 for Ararat-Armenia. Celje's attack/defence rating is 0.57/1.77 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.48/1.83 for Ararat-Armenia.