29 July 2026, 15:00 UTC

Kairat Almaty vs Omonia Nicosia UEFA Champions League prediction & result

Almaty Central Stadium, Almaty
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Kairat Almaty 1-0 Omonia Nicosia.

Before kick-off the model made it 34% Kairat Almaty, 22% draw, 44% Omonia Nicosia — fair odds of 2.94, 4.55 and 2.27. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

The tie

Second leg of the UEFA Champions League 2nd Qualifying Round tie. First leg: Omonia Nicosia 1–0 Kairat Almaty (22 Jul) →

Kairat Almaty went through on penalties, after 1–1 on aggregate.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Omonia Nicosia at 44% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

O. Jukkola
24'
26'
A. Kakoullis
🔁L. Kurginout: I. Bekbolat
36'
🔁D. Kasabulatout: Edmilson
36'
⚽Edmilsonassist: L. Mata
37'
A. Mrynskiy
41'
65'
🔁M. Tankovicout: A. Chatzigiovanis
65'
🔁M. Mayambelaout: L. Diony
G. Mendonsa
67'
68'
S. Coulibaly
🔁G. Mendonsaout: O. Baybek
72'
🔁I. Bekbolatout: A. Tuyakbaev
72'
76'
🔁S. Simicout: A. Christou
76'
🔁Ewandroout: I. Kousoulos
🔁O. Jukkolaout: M. Birkurmanov
80'
96'
M. Maric
🔁Lucas Africoout: A. Shirobokov
102'
111'
S. Coulibaly
111'
S. Coulibaly
114'
🔁L. Dionyout: A. Neofytou
⚽Edmilson (pen)
120+1'
120+1'
⚽A. Chatzigiovanis (pen)
⚽J. Oksanen (pen)
120+2'
120+2'
⚽J. Balkovec (pen)
⚽A. Martynovich (pen)
120+3'
120+3'
⚽P. Andreou (pen)
⚽O. Baybek (pen)
120+4'
120+4'
⚽A. Neofytou (pen)
⚽M. Gual (pen)
120+5'
120+5'
⚽I. Kousoulos (pen)
⚽A. Tuyakbaev (pen)
120+6'
120+6'
⚽A. Christou (pen)
⚽M. Birkurmanov (pen)
120+7'
120+7'
⚽N. Panagiotou (pen)

Line-ups

Kairat Almaty 4-2-3-1
  • 1Temirlan AnarbekovG
  • 24Aleksandr MrynskiyD
  • 14Aleksandr MartynovichD
  • 44Lucas ÁfricoD
  • 3Luís MataD
  • 4Damir KasabulatM
  • 22Gustavo MendoncaM
  • 19Oiva JukkolaM
  • 13Jaakko OksanenM
  • 5Lev KurginD
  • 28Marc GualF
Substitutes
  • 9EdmilsonF
  • 81Ismail BekbolatF
  • 8Olzhas BaibekM
  • 17Azamat TuyakbayevM
  • 15Mansur BirkurmanovF
  • 25Aleksandr ShirobokovD
  • 30Danila BuchG
  • 82Sherkhan KalmurzaG
  • 20Erkin TapalovD
Coach: Rafael Urazbakhtin
Omonia Nicosia 4-4-2
  • 40FabianoG
  • 27Stefan SimicD
  • 5Senou CoulibalyD
  • 30Nikolas PanagiotouD
  • 29Jure BalkovecD
  • 11Ewandro CostaM
  • 74Panagiotis AndreouM
  • 14Mateo MarićM
  • 21Mihlali MayambelaM
  • 9Andronikos KakoullisF
  • 22Muamer TankovićM
Substitutes
  • 10Tasos ChatzigiovanisM
  • 99Loïs DionyF
  • 82Andreas ChristouM
  • 31Ioannis KousoulosM
  • 85Angelos NeophytouF
  • 23Francis UzohoG
  • 78Pantelis MichailG
  • 90Christos KonstantinidisD
  • 92Christoforou PanagiotisD
Coach: Henning Berg

Form going into Kairat Almaty vs Omonia Nicosia

Kairat Almaty

All competitions we cover

  • L0-1away to Omonia Nicosia22 July 2026

Omonia Nicosia

All competitions we cover

  • W1-0Kairat Almaty22 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Kairat Almaty vs Omonia Nicosia

  • 22 July 2026Omonia Nicosia 1–0 Kairat AlmatyUEFA Champions League
  • 9 December 2021Omonia Nicosia 0–0 Kairat AlmatyUEFA Europa Conference League
  • 16 September 2021Kairat Almaty 0–0 Omonia NicosiaUEFA Europa Conference League

The result against the call

Kairat Almaty beat Omonia Nicosia 1–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Omonia Nicosia at 44% and given a win for Kairat Almaty 34%. Sent off: A. Kakoullis (Omonia Nicosia) 26', S. Coulibaly (Omonia Nicosia) 111'.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.