Dukagjini
vs
FC Lugano
Final score: Dukagjini 1-5 FC Lugano.
Before kick-off the model made it 13% Dukagjini, 16% draw, 71% FC Lugano — fair odds of 7.69, 6.25 and 1.41. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (8%).
Expected goals: Dukagjini 1.23, FC Lugano 2.91.
Both teams to score: 67%. Over 2.5 goals: 78%, under 2.5: 22%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Match stats: Dukagjini vs FC Lugano
Dukagjini had 37% possession, 9 shots (4 on target), 1 corners; FC Lugano had 63% possession, 12 shots (7 on target), 5 corners.
Goals: K. Behrens 6' for FC Lugano, D. Dos Santos 9' for FC Lugano, M. Maliqi 10' for Dukagjini, K. Behrens 36' for FC Lugano, E. Sinani (own goal) 51' for FC Lugano, K. Behrens 58' for FC Lugano.
Head-to-head: Dukagjini vs FC Lugano
- 29 July 2026Dukagjini 1–5 FC LuganoUEFA Europa Conference League
- 23 July 2026FC Lugano 1–0 DukagjiniUEFA Europa Conference League
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Lugano the highest probability at 71%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Dukagjini against 2.91 for FC Lugano. Dukagjini's attack/defence rating is 0.53/2.04 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.02/1.23 for FC Lugano.