29 July 2026, 14:30 UTC

Dukagjini vs FC Lugano UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result

Hajvalia
Full time1 – 5

Final score: Dukagjini 1-5 FC Lugano.

Before kick-off the model made it 16% Dukagjini, 19% draw, 65% FC Lugano — fair odds of 6.25, 5.26 and 1.54. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

The tie

Second leg of the UEFA Europa Conference League 2nd Qualifying Round tie. First leg: FC Lugano 1–0 Dukagjini (23 Jul) →

FC Lugano went through 6–1 on aggregate.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts FC Lugano at 65% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 410 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 65.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 73.3%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

6'
⚽K. Behrens
9'
⚽D. Dos Santosassist: M. Zanotti
⚽M. Maliqi
10'
36'
⚽K. Behrensassist: A. Papadopoulos
🔁A. Merlakuout: G. Elezaj
46'
🔁T. Bardhokuout: A. Bytyqi
46'
51'
⚽E. Sinani (OG)
🔁J. Stevensonout: I. Zulfiu
56'
58'
⚽K. Behrensassist: U. Bislimi
62'
🔁L. Maiout: D. Kelvin
62'
🔁K. Behrensout: E. Pihlstrom
63'
🔁R. Steffenout: D. Moncada
🔁D. Isufiout: K. Thaci
65'
🔁E. Sinaniout: Luan
65'
71'
🔁U. Bislimiout: G. Ajdin
75'
🔁D. Dos Santosout: B. D. Castro Espinosa

Match stats — Dukagjini vs FC Lugano

37%Possession63%
9Shots12
4On target7
1Corners5

Line-ups

Dukagjini 4-3-3
  • 1Egzon LekajG
  • 77Vitor HugoD
  • 5Elton BasriuD
  • 14Egzon SinaniD
  • 44Tun BardhokuD
  • 8Kushtrim GashiM
  • 17Mergim PefqeliM
  • 10Altin MerlakuM
  • 98Meris MaliqiF
  • 99Jeudi StevensonF
  • 47Dienit IsufiF
Substitutes
  • 22Arbër BytyqiD
  • 7Granit ElezajF
  • 23Iljasa ZulfiuF
  • 33LuanD
  • 9Kron ThaciF
  • 16Kenan HaxhihamzaG
  • 2Denis HyseniD
  • 3Melos ZenunajD
  • 27Valentin HotiM
Coach: Armend Dallku
FC Lugano 3-1-4-2
  • 16David von BallmoosG
  • 6Antonios PapadopoulosD
  • 17Lars Lukas MaiD
  • 18Joel BichselD
  • 8Anto GrgićM
  • 46Mattia ZanottiM
  • 25Uran BislimiM
  • 27Daniel Dos SantosM
  • 21Yanis CimignaniM
  • 91Kevin BehrensF
  • 11Renato SteffenF
Substitutes
  • 4Damian KelvinD
  • 24Elias PihlströmF
  • 30Dereck MoncadaF
  • 23Gjan AjdinM
  • 22Beckham CastroF
  • 39Ahmadou NdiayeG
  • 28Felix GebhardtG
  • 3Hannes DelcroixD
  • 7Ezgjan AlioskiD
Coach: Mattia Croci-Torti

Form going into Dukagjini vs FC Lugano

Dukagjini

All competitions we cover

  • L0-1away to FC Lugano23 July 2026

FC Lugano

All competitions we cover

  • W2-1FC Vaduz26 July 2026
  • W1-0Dukagjini23 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Dukagjini vs FC Lugano

  • 23 July 2026FC Lugano 1–0 DukagjiniUEFA Europa Conference League

Leading scorers: Dukagjini and FC Lugano

Dukagjini

No leading scorers listed yet.

FC Lugano

GoalsAssists

  • K. Behrens71
  • A. Ajeti30

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

FC Lugano won 5–1 at Dukagjini. The model had made a win for FC Lugano its most likely outcome, at 65%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: K. Behrens 6' for FC Lugano, D. Dos Santos 9' for FC Lugano, M. Maliqi 10' for Dukagjini, K. Behrens 36' for FC Lugano, E. Sinani (own goal) 51' for FC Lugano, K. Behrens 58' for FC Lugano.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.