29 July 2026, 18:00 UTC

FK Crvena Zvezda vs Larne UEFA Champions League prediction & result

Stadion Rajko Mit, Belgrade
Full time5 – 0

Final score: FK Crvena Zvezda 5-0 Larne.

Before kick-off the model made it 43% FK Crvena Zvezda, 25% draw, 32% Larne — fair odds of 2.33, 4.00 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

The tie

Second leg of the UEFA Champions League 2nd Qualifying Round tie. First leg: Larne 0–4 FK Crvena Zvezda (21 Jul) →

FK Crvena Zvezda went through 9–0 on aggregate.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts FK Crvena Zvezda at 43% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

FK Crvena Zvezda99%Draw1%Larne0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽A. Kataiassist: M. Veljkovic
3'
•A. Katai
16'
⚽M. Arnautovicassist: M. Veljkovic
45+4'
46'
🔁K. O'Haraout: P. O'Neill
⚽L. Loizou
49'
⚽M. Arnautovicassist: Seol Young-Woo
60'
60'
🔁R. Dohertyout: J. Simpson
60'
🔁J. McEneffout: L. Wallace
🔁L. Loizouout: O. Bukari
63'
🔁M. Strikaout: N. Tiknizyan
64'
🔁R. Krunicout: T. Elsnik
64'
🔁Seol Young-Wooout: N. Stankovic
70'
70'
🔁D. Sloanout: C. McKendry
🔁M. Abu Faniout: M. Ivanic
77'
⚽O. Bukariassist: A. Katai
79'
79'
🔁S. Grahamout: M. Gibson

Line-ups

FK Crvena Zvezda 4-3-2-1
  • 1MatheusG
  • 66Young-woo SeolD
  • 30Franklin TeboD
  • 13Miloš VeljkovićD
  • 27Matej StrikaD
  • 75Loizos LoizouM
  • 15Mohammad Abu FaniM
  • 33Rade KrunićM
  • 10Aleksandar KataiM
  • 70Muhammed-Cham SaračevićM
  • 7Marko ArnautovićF
Substitutes
  • 14Osman BukariM
  • 23Nair TiknizyanD
  • 21Timi Max ElšnikM
  • 24Nikola StankovićD
  • 4Mirko IvanićM
  • 77Ivan GutešaG
  • 25Strahinja ErakovićD
  • 45Stefan GudeljD
  • 8Kristiyan BalovM
Coach: Dejan Stankovic
Larne 4-3-3
  • 1Rohan FergusonG
  • 23Tomas CosgroveD
  • 26Dan BentM
  • 3Matt RidleyD
  • 4Aaron DonnellyD
  • 15Ronan DohertyM
  • 6Chris GallagherM
  • 11Sean GrahamD
  • 25Dylan SloanM
  • 19Kevin O'HaraF
  • 22Jordan McEneffM
Substitutes
  • 9Paul O'NeillF
  • 2Logan WallaceD
  • 47James SimpsonM
  • 7Conor McKendryM
  • 45Montel GibsonF
  • 36Dylan GrahamG
  • 14Benji MageeM
  • 17Joshua UkekM
  • 30Matthew LustyF
Coach: Gary Haveron

Form going into FK Crvena Zvezda vs Larne

FK Crvena Zvezda

All competitions we cover

  • W4-0away to Larne21 July 2026

Larne

All competitions we cover

  • L0-4FK Crvena Zvezda21 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Head-to-head: FK Crvena Zvezda vs Larne

  • 21 July 2026Larne 0–4 FK Crvena ZvezdaUEFA Champions League

The result against the call

FK Crvena Zvezda beat Larne 5–0. The model had made a win for FK Crvena Zvezda its most likely outcome, at 43%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: A. Katai 3' for FK Crvena Zvezda, M. Arnautovic 45+4' for FK Crvena Zvezda, L. Loizou 49' for FK Crvena Zvezda, M. Arnautovic 60' for FK Crvena Zvezda, O. Bukari 79' for FK Crvena Zvezda.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.