FK Crvena Zvezda
vs
Larne
Final score: FK Crvena Zvezda 5-0 Larne.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% FK Crvena Zvezda, 24% draw, 34% Larne — fair odds of 2.38, 4.17 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: FK Crvena Zvezda 1.72, Larne 1.53.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Match stats: FK Crvena Zvezda vs Larne
Goals: A. Katai 3' for FK Crvena Zvezda, M. Arnautovic 45+4' for FK Crvena Zvezda, L. Loizou 49' for FK Crvena Zvezda, M. Arnautovic 60' for FK Crvena Zvezda, O. Bukari 79' for FK Crvena Zvezda.
Head-to-head: FK Crvena Zvezda vs Larne
- 21 July 2026Larne 0–4 FK Crvena ZvezdaUEFA Champions League
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FK Crvena Zvezda the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.72 expected goals for FK Crvena Zvezda against 1.53 for Larne. FK Crvena Zvezda's attack/defence rating is 0.66/1.92 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.57/1.38 for Larne.