Universitatea Craiova vs Levski Sofia UEFA Champions League prediction & result
Final score: Universitatea Craiova 2-2 Levski Sofia.
Before kick-off the model made it 39% Universitatea Craiova, 29% draw, 32% Levski Sofia — fair odds of 2.56, 3.45 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
The tie
Second leg of the UEFA Champions League 2nd Qualifying Round tie. First leg: Levski Sofia 1–0 Universitatea Craiova (22 Jul) →
Levski Sofia went through 3–2 on aggregate.
All Champions League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Universitatea Craiova at 39% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
- 21Laurenţiu PopescuG
- 28Adrian RusD
- 24Nikola StevanovićD
- 6Vladimir ScreciuD
- 17Carlos MoraM
- 5Anzor MekvabishviliM
- 20Alexandru CicâldăuM
- 11Nicușor BancuM
- 30David MateiM
- 7Steven NsimbaF
- 10Ștefan BaiaramF
- 23Samuel TelesM
- 12Monday EtimF
- 8Tudor BăluțăM
- 19Heriberto TavaresF
- 22Simon ElisorF
- 1Alexandru MaximG
- 90Răzvan SavaG
- 15Juraj BadeljD
- 4Alexandru CrețuM
- 92Svetoslav VutsovG
- 21AldairD
- 50Kristian DimitrovD
- 31Nikola SerafimovD
- 3MaiconD
- 47Akram BourasM
- 19El Mehdi MoubarikM
- 35SerginhoM
- 11Armstrong Oko-FlexM
- 7ReinaldoF
- 17Everton BalaM
- 4Christian MakounD
- 20Álex CentellesD
- 22Mazire SoulaM
- 18Gašper TrdinM
- 9Juan PereaF
- 1Ognyan VladimirovG
- 78Martin LukovG
- 10Asen Ivanov MitkovM
- 27David KussoM
Form going into Universitatea Craiova vs Levski Sofia
Universitatea Craiova
All competitions we cover
- L1-5away to Dinamo Bucuresti25 July 2026
- L0-1away to Levski Sofia22 July 2026
- W4-0Uta Arad18 July 2026
Levski Sofia
All competitions we cover
- W2-1away to Lokomotiv Sofia25 July 2026
- W1-0Universitatea Craiova22 July 2026
- W2-1Dunav Ruse17 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Universitatea Craiova vs Levski Sofia
- 22 July 2026Levski Sofia 1–0 Universitatea CraiovaUEFA Champions League
Leading scorers: Universitatea Craiova and Levski Sofia
Universitatea Craiova
No leading scorers listed yet.
Levski Sofia
GoalsAssists
- Reinaldo30
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Universitatea Craiova and Levski Sofia drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Universitatea Craiova at 39% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Everton Bala 13' for Levski Sofia, Aldair 16' for Levski Sofia, Nicușor Bancu 45+2' for Universitatea Craiova, Adrian Rus 48' for Universitatea Craiova.