29 July 2026, 17:30 UTC

Universitatea Craiova vs Levski Sofia UEFA Champions League prediction & result

Stadionul Ion Oblemenco, Craiova
Full time2 2

Final score: Universitatea Craiova 2-2 Levski Sofia.

Before kick-off the model made it 39% Universitatea Craiova, 29% draw, 32% Levski Sofia — fair odds of 2.56, 3.45 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Universitatea Craiova at 39% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Universitatea Craiova4%Draw93%Levski Sofia3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

9'
Nikola Serafimov
13'
Everton Balaassist: Serginho
16'
Aldairassist: Everton Bala
26'
Aldair
Ștefan Baiaram
33'
Nicușor Bancuassist: David Matei
45+2'
45+3'
Maicon
46'
🔁Aldairout: Álex Centelles
46'
🔁Nikola Serafimovout: Christian Makoun
Adrian Rus
48'
55'
Akram Bouras
55'
🔁Armstrong Oko-Flexout: Mazire Soula
🔁Carlos Moraout: Samuel Teles
59'
🔁Ștefan Baiaramout: Monday Etim
59'
🔁Nikola Stevanovićout: Tudor Băluță
67'
🔁Anzor Mekvabishviliout: Simon Elisor
77'
🔁David Mateiout: Heriberto Tavares
77'
77'
🔁Everton Balaout: Gašper Trdin
87'
🔁Reinaldoout: Juan Perea
Adrian Rus
88'

Line-ups

Universitatea Craiova 3-4-3
  • 21Laurenţiu PopescuG
  • 28Adrian RusD
  • 24Nikola StevanovićD
  • 6Vladimir ScreciuD
  • 17Carlos MoraM
  • 5Anzor MekvabishviliM
  • 20Alexandru CicâldăuM
  • 11Nicușor BancuM
  • 30David MateiM
  • 7Steven NsimbaF
  • 10Ștefan BaiaramF
Substitutes
  • 23Samuel TelesM
  • 12Monday EtimF
  • 8Tudor BăluțăM
  • 19Heriberto TavaresF
  • 22Simon ElisorF
  • 1Alexandru MaximG
  • 90Răzvan SavaG
  • 15Juraj BadeljD
  • 4Alexandru CrețuM
Coach: Filipe Coelho
Levski Sofia 4-3-3
  • 92Svetoslav VutsovG
  • 21AldairD
  • 50Kristian DimitrovD
  • 31Nikola SerafimovD
  • 3MaiconD
  • 47Akram BourasM
  • 19El Mehdi MoubarikM
  • 35SerginhoM
  • 11Armstrong Oko-FlexM
  • 7ReinaldoF
  • 17Everton BalaM
Substitutes
  • 4Christian MakounD
  • 20Álex CentellesD
  • 22Mazire SoulaM
  • 18Gašper TrdinM
  • 9Juan PereaF
  • 1Ognyan VladimirovG
  • 78Martin LukovG
  • 10Asen Ivanov MitkovM
  • 27David KussoM
Coach: Julio Velazquez

Form going into Universitatea Craiova vs Levski Sofia

Universitatea Craiova

  • L1-5away to Dinamo Bucuresti25 July 2026
  • L0-1away to Levski Sofia22 July 2026
  • W4-0Uta Arad18 July 2026

Levski Sofia

  • W2-1away to Lokomotiv Sofia25 July 2026
  • W1-0Universitatea Craiova22 July 2026
  • W2-1Dunav Ruse17 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Universitatea Craiova and Levski Sofia in their domestic leagues

#TeamLeaguePWDLGFGAGDPts
3Universitatea CraiovaLiga I9522199+1017
1Levski SofiaFirst League9810214+1725

Each side's position in its own domestic league today, not on the day of this match — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: Liga I · First League

Head-to-head: Universitatea Craiova vs Levski Sofia

  • 29 July 2026Universitatea Craiova 0–2 Levski SofiaUEFA Champions League
  • 22 July 2026Levski Sofia 1–0 Universitatea CraiovaUEFA Champions League

Leading scorers: Universitatea Craiova and Levski Sofia

Universitatea Craiova

No player in Liga I's leading scorers — 19 league goals as a side.

Levski Sofia

  • Reinaldo3 goals
  • A. Oko-Flex2 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.