29 July 2026, 17:00 UTC

Lech Poznan vs Aarhus UEFA Champions League prediction & result

Stadion Poznan
Full time0 – 3

Final score: Lech Poznan 0-3 Aarhus.

Before kick-off the model made it 68% Lech Poznan, 19% draw, 13% Aarhus — fair odds of 1.47, 5.26 and 7.69. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

The tie

Second leg of the UEFA Champions League 2nd Qualifying Round tie. First leg: Aarhus 1–4 Lech Poznan (21 Jul) →

Aarhus went through on penalties, after 4–4 on aggregate.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Lech Poznan at 68% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 410 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 65.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 73.3%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

32'
⚽T. Bechassist: K. Arnstad
A. Kozubal
40'
45'
J. Bogere
55'
⚽K. Arnstad (pen)
60'
🔁J. Jensen-Abbewout: C. Storch
🔁L. Palmaout: A. Sayyadmanesh
68'
70'
🔁J. Jonssonout: R. Carstensen
70'
🔁J. Bogereout: S. Tchamche
75'
⚽F. Tingagerassist: E. Kahl
🔁R. Gumnyout: J. Pereira
81'
🔁P. Rodriguezout: F. Jagiello
81'
86'
M. Anderson
🔁P. Walemarkout: D. Hakans
87'
🔁M. Ishakout: Y. Agnero
88'
90+3'
🔁E. Kahlout: M. Camara
91'
F. Emmery
⚽F. Jagiello
95'
97'
🔁M. Andersonout: J. Serra
97'
🔁F. Emmeryout: T. Kristjansson
🔁R. Murawskiout: G. Thordarson
98'
100'
⚽T. Kristjanssonassist: T. Bech
Y. Agnero
105+1'
107'
M. Camara
⚽F. Jagiello (pen)
120+1'
120+1'
⚽K. Arnstad (pen)
⚽A. Sayyadmanesh (pen)
120+2'
120+2'
⚽F. Tingager (pen)
⚽A. Kozubal (pen)
120+3'
120+3'
⚽T. Kristjansson (pen)
⚽Y. Agnero (pen)
120+4'
120+4'
⚽J. Serra (pen)
⚽J. Pereira (pen)
120+5'
120+5'
⚽T. Bech (pen)

Match stats — Lech Poznan vs Aarhus

49%Possession51%
18Shots14
9On target6
14Corners3

Line-ups

Lech Poznan 4-2-3-1
  • 1Mateusz LisG
  • 20Robert GumnyD
  • 27Wojciech MońkaD
  • 59Terry YegbeD
  • 15Michal GurgulD
  • 22Radosław MurawskiM
  • 43Antoni KozubalM
  • 10Patrik WålemarkM
  • 21Pablo RodríguezM
  • 77Luis PalmaM
  • 9Mikael IshakF
Substitutes
  • 17Allahyar SayyadmaneshM
  • 2Joel PereiraD
  • 24Filip JagiełłoM
  • 11Daniel HåkansM
  • 7Yannick AgneroF
  • 23Gisli ThordarsonM
  • 35Mateusz PruchniewskiG
  • 41Bartosz MrozekG
  • 4João MoutinhoD
Coach: Niels Frederiksen
Aarhus 3-4-2-1
  • 21Mads HedenstadG
  • 40Jonas Jensen-AbbewD
  • 5Frederik TingagerD
  • 19Eric KahlD
  • 23Mikael AndersonM
  • 4Magnus KnudsenM
  • 16Jens JønssonM
  • 39Frederik EmmeryM
  • 31Tobias BechF
  • 10Kristian ArnstadF
  • 28James BogereF
Substitutes
  • 45Christian StorchD
  • 29Rasmus CarstensenD
  • 27Stefen TchamcheF
  • 44Mouhammade CamaraD
  • 13Janni SerraF
  • 20Tómas Óli KristjánssonF
  • 42Marius van der RaadG
  • 41Otto LyhneG
  • 43Zander GrantzauD
Coach: Jakob Poulsen

Form going into Lech Poznan vs Aarhus

Lech Poznan

All competitions we cover

  • D0-0Cracovia Krakow25 July 2026
  • W4-1away to Aarhus21 July 2026

Aarhus

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1Brondby25 July 2026
  • L1-4Lech Poznan21 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Lech Poznan vs Aarhus

  • 21 July 2026Aarhus 1–4 Lech PoznanUEFA Champions League

The result against the call

Aarhus won 3–0 at Lech Poznan. The model had leaned towards a win for Lech Poznan at 68% and given a win for Aarhus 13%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 8 matches like this one.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.