29 July 2026, 17:00 UTC

Lech Poznan vs Aarhus UEFA Champions League prediction & result

Stadion Poznan
Full time1 – 4

Final score: Lech Poznan 1-4 Aarhus.

Before kick-off the model made it 68% Lech Poznan, 19% draw, 13% Aarhus — fair odds of 1.47, 5.26 and 7.69. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Lech Poznan at 68% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 275 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

32'
⚽T. Bechassist: K. Arnstad
A. Kozubal
40'
45'
J. Bogere
55'
⚽K. Arnstad (pen)
60'
🔁J. Jensen-Abbewout: C. Storch
🔁L. Palmaout: A. Sayyadmanesh
68'
70'
🔁J. Jonssonout: R. Carstensen
70'
🔁J. Bogereout: S. Tchamche
75'
⚽F. Tingagerassist: E. Kahl
🔁R. Gumnyout: J. Pereira
81'
🔁P. Rodriguezout: F. Jagiello
81'
86'
M. Anderson
🔁P. Walemarkout: D. Hakans
87'
🔁M. Ishakout: Y. Agnero
88'
90+3'
🔁E. Kahlout: M. Camara
91'
F. Emmery
⚽F. Jagiello
95'
97'
🔁M. Andersonout: J. Serra
97'
🔁F. Emmeryout: T. Kristjansson
🔁R. Murawskiout: G. Thordarson
98'
100'
⚽T. Kristjanssonassist: T. Bech
Y. Agnero
105+1'
107'
M. Camara
⚽F. Jagiello (pen)
120+1'
120+1'
⚽K. Arnstad (pen)
⚽A. Sayyadmanesh (pen)
120+2'
120+2'
⚽F. Tingager (pen)
⚽A. Kozubal (pen)
120+3'
120+3'
⚽T. Kristjansson (pen)
⚽Y. Agnero (pen)
120+4'
120+4'
⚽J. Serra (pen)
⚽J. Pereira (pen)
120+5'
120+5'
⚽T. Bech (pen)

Match stats — Lech Poznan vs Aarhus

49%Possession51%
18Shots14
9On target6
14Corners3

Line-ups

Lech Poznan 4-2-3-1
  • 1Mateusz LisG
  • 20Robert GumnyD
  • 27Wojciech MońkaD
  • 59Terry YegbeD
  • 15Michal GurgulD
  • 22Radosław MurawskiM
  • 43Antoni KozubalM
  • 10Patrik WålemarkM
  • 21Pablo RodríguezM
  • 77Luis PalmaM
  • 9Mikael IshakF
Substitutes
  • 17Allahyar SayyadmaneshM
  • 2Joel PereiraD
  • 24Filip JagiełłoM
  • 11Daniel HåkansM
  • 7Yannick AgneroF
  • 23Gisli ThordarsonM
  • 35Mateusz PruchniewskiG
  • 41Bartosz MrozekG
  • 4João MoutinhoD
Coach: Niels Frederiksen
Aarhus 3-4-2-1
  • 21Mads HedenstadG
  • 40Jonas Jensen-AbbewD
  • 5Frederik TingagerD
  • 19Eric KahlD
  • 23Mikael AndersonM
  • 4Magnus KnudsenM
  • 16Jens JønssonM
  • 39Frederik EmmeryM
  • 31Tobias BechF
  • 10Kristian ArnstadF
  • 28James BogereF
Substitutes
  • 45Christian StorchD
  • 29Rasmus CarstensenD
  • 27Stefen TchamcheF
  • 44Mouhammade CamaraD
  • 13Janni SerraF
  • 20Tómas Óli KristjánssonF
  • 42Marius van der RaadG
  • 41Otto LyhneG
  • 43Zander GrantzauD
Coach: Jakob Poulsen

Form going into Lech Poznan vs Aarhus

Lech Poznan

  • D0-0Cracovia Krakow25 July 2026
  • W4-1away to Aarhus21 July 2026

Aarhus

  • D1-1Brondby25 July 2026
  • L1-4Lech Poznan21 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Lech Poznan and Aarhus in their domestic leagues

#TeamLeaguePWDLGFGAGDPts
3Lech PoznanEkstraklasa7511126+616
11AarhusSuperliga8044915-64

Each side's position in its own domestic league today, not on the day of this match — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: Ekstraklasa · Superliga

Head-to-head: Lech Poznan vs Aarhus

  • 29 July 2026Lech Poznan 0–1 AarhusUEFA Champions League
  • 21 July 2026Aarhus 1–4 Lech PoznanUEFA Champions League

Leading scorers: Lech Poznan and Aarhus

Lech Poznan

  • A. Sayyadmanesh4 goals

Aarhus

  • J. Serra3 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.