Lech Poznan
vs
Aarhus
Final score: Lech Poznan 0-3 Aarhus.
Before kick-off the model made it 63% Lech Poznan, 20% draw, 17% Aarhus — fair odds of 1.59, 5.00 and 5.88. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).
Expected goals: Lech Poznan 2.23, Aarhus 1.06.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%, under 2.5: 36%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Match stats: Lech Poznan vs Aarhus
Lech Poznan had 49% possession, 18 shots (9 on target), 14 corners; Aarhus had 51% possession, 14 shots (6 on target), 3 corners.
Goals: T. Bech 32' for Aarhus, K. Arnstad (penalty) 55' for Aarhus, F. Tingager 75' for Aarhus, F. Jagiello 95' for Lech Poznan, T. Kristjansson 100' for Aarhus, F. Jagiello (penalty) 120+1' for Lech Poznan, K. Arnstad (penalty) 120+1' for Aarhus, A. Sayyadmanesh (penalty) 120+2' for Lech Poznan, F. Tingager (penalty) 120+2' for Aarhus, A. Kozubal (penalty) 120+3' for Lech Poznan, T. Kristjansson (penalty) 120+3' for Aarhus, Y. Agnero (penalty) 120+4' for Lech Poznan, J. Serra (penalty) 120+4' for Aarhus, J. Pereira (penalty) 120+5' for Lech Poznan, T. Bech (penalty) 120+5' for Aarhus.
Head-to-head: Lech Poznan vs Aarhus
- 29 July 2026Lech Poznan 0–1 AarhusUEFA Champions League
- 21 July 2026Aarhus 1–4 Lech PoznanUEFA Champions League
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Lech Poznan the highest probability at 63%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.23 expected goals for Lech Poznan against 1.06 for Aarhus. Lech Poznan's attack/defence rating is 0.92/1.13 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.67/1.28 for Aarhus.