Regular Season - 10 · 19 November 2026, 16:45 UTC

MC Alger vs Olympique Akbou Ligue 1 prediction

Our model says: MC Alger 1–0 Olympique Akbou

The model makes it 51% MC Alger, 29% draw, 20% Olympique Akbou — fair odds of 1.96, 3.45 and 5.00.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (15%).

Expected goals: MC Alger 1.53, Olympique Akbou 0.76.

Both teams to score: 42%. Over 2.5 goals: 40%, under 2.5: 60%.

Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.

Edge to MC Alger: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. MC Alger's rating is built from 37 Ligue 1 (Algeria) matches and Olympique Akbou's from 38, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • MC Alger are 3rd on 16 points from 7 games; Olympique Akbou are 7th on 12 points from 8 games — Ligue 1.
  • MC Alger have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to JS El Biar.
  • Olympique Akbou are unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 won), most recently a 0-0 draw at home to JS Kabylie.
  • Last 4 meetings: MC Alger 2 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 28 April 2026, ended MC Alger 2–1 Olympique Akbou.

More Ligue 1 (Algeria) predictions

All Ligue 1 (Algeria) predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: MC Alger vs Olympique Akbou

42%
Both teams to score
40%
Over 2.5 goals
60%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

MC Alger win Draw Olympique Akbou win
  1. 1–015%
  2. 1–112%
  3. 2–012%
  4. 0–011%
  5. 2–19%
  6. 0–17%
  7. 3–06%

Scores read MC Alger first; the other scorelines share the remaining 28%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

MC Alger at 51%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into MC Alger vs Olympique Akbou

MC Alger

Ligue 1

  • L0-1away to JS El Biar8 November 2026
  • W2-0MC Oran4 November 2026
  • W2-0Khenchela31 October 2026
  • W1-0away to US Biskra27 October 2026
  • D1-1away to ASO Chlef13 October 2026

Olympique Akbou

Ligue 1

  • D0-0JS Kabylie7 November 2026
  • D0-0away to MC Oran30 October 2026
  • W3-0CS Constantine23 October 2026
  • W2-1Ben Aknoun16 October 2026
  • D0-0away to JS Saoura8 October 2026

What these results say

  • Every one of these 5 matches for MC Alger had two goals or fewer.
  • MC Alger scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Olympique Akbou went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Olympique Akbou kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Algeria Ligue 1 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3MC Alger751192+716
7Olympique Akbou833296+312

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

MC Alger

Chance to finish in the top two · 53% today

Win 58%
Draw 48%
Defeat 44%

Olympique Akbou

Chance to finish in the top two · 5% today

Win 8%
Draw 6%
Defeat 4%

From our Ligue 1 season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: MC Alger vs Olympique Akbou

  • 28 April 2026MC Alger 2–1 Olympique AkbouLigue 1
  • 12 September 2025Olympique Akbou 0–1 MC AlgerLigue 1
  • 15 April 2025Olympique Akbou 1–0 MC AlgerLigue 1
  • 24 October 2024MC Alger 0–0 Olympique AkbouLigue 1

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives MC Alger a 28.2% chance of the title and Olympique Akbou 1.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

How the call on MC Alger v Olympique Akbou has moved

First published on 17 Oct at 53% / 27% / 20% (home / draw / away). After 4 updates it reads 51% / 29% / 20%: the biggest move is MC Alger's chance of winning, down 2 points.

  1. MC Alger win51%▼ −2
  2. Draw29%▲ +2
  3. Olympique Akbou win20%=

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

MC Alger Olympique Akbou
0.63 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.55
1.15 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.49
1.53 Model expected goals (this match) 0.76

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives MC Alger the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.53 expected goals for MC Alger against 0.76 for Olympique Akbou. MC Alger's attack/defence rating is 0.63/1.15 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.55/1.49 for Olympique Akbou.

MC Alger carry a model rating of 6.56 against 6.36 for Olympique Akbou.

How the model reaches 51% for MC Alger to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for MC Alger to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 3 points, MC Alger's ratings add 5 points and Olympique Akbou's ratings add 5 points, which lands on the published 51%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage44%+8
  3. Both sides at this match's level41%−3
  4. MC Alger's ratings46%+5
  5. Olympique Akbou's ratings51%+5

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

MC AlgerOlympique Akbou
7Matches8
5W 1D 1LRecord3W 3D 2L
9 1.3 per gameGoals scored9 1.1 per game
2 0.3 per gameGoals conceded6 0.8 per game
5 of 7Clean sheets5 of 8
1 of 7Failed to score4 of 8
1 of 2Penalties scored2 of 2
17 2.4 per gameYellow cards20 2.5 per game
1Red cards0

MC Alger at home · Olympique Akbou away

4Played4
4W 0D 0LRecord1W 2D 1L
7–0Goals for – against2–2
4 of 4Clean sheets3 of 4

League matches only, Ligue 1, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Ligue 1 matches this season: MC Alger 7, Olympique Akbou 8.

MC Alger scored 310122
Olympique Akbou conceded 110102

MC Alger score most often in the 0–15 minute window (3 goals); Olympique Akbou have let in 1 there.

Olympique Akbou scored 101701
MC Alger conceded 100100

Olympique Akbou score most often in the 46–60 minute window (7 goals); MC Alger have let in 1 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

MC Alger

Olympique Akbou

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.