Marseille
vs
Le Mans
Ligue 1 prediction
Our model says: Marseille 2–1 Le Mans
The model makes it 67% Marseille, 19% draw, 14% Le Mans — fair odds of 1.49, 5.26 and 7.14.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Marseille 2.76, Le Mans 1.06.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 73%, under 2.5: 27%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
One-sided: Marseille are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Marseille's rating is built from 44 Ligue 1 (France) matches and Le Mans's from 10, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 705 matches.
Key facts
- Marseille are 4th on 18 points from 10 games; Le Mans are 15th on 8 points from 10 games — Ligue 1.
- Marseille are unbeaten in their last 5 games (5 won), most recently a 2-1 win away to Lens.
- Le Mans have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Monaco.
More Ligue 1 (France) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Marseille vs Le Mans
Has the model earned this number?
Marseille at 67%: of 501 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.5% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Marseille vs Le Mans
Marseille
Ligue 1
- W2-1away to Lens8 November 2026
- W2-0Toulouse1 November 2026
- W4-3Le Havre25 October 2026
- W5-2away to Angers18 October 2026
- W2-0away to Estac Troyes11 October 2026
Le Mans
Ligue 1
- D1-1Monaco8 November 2026
- L0-2away to Estac Troyes31 October 2026
- D1-1away to Auxerre25 October 2026
- L0-3Toulouse16 October 2026
- L1-3away to Paris Saint Germain10 October 2026
What these results say
- Marseille won every one of these 5 matches.
- Marseille scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Le Mans did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Le Mans conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Marseille | 10 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 22 | 14 | +8 | 18 |
| 15 | Le Mans | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 12 | 19 | -7 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Marseille
Chance to finish in the top three · 37% today
Le Mans
Chance to finish in the bottom two · 24% today
From our Ligue 1 season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Leading scorers: Marseille and Le Mans
Marseille
GoalsAssists
- A. Gouiri73
- A. Harit31
Le Mans
GoalsAssists
- L. Mafouta41
- A. Bourabaa32
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Marseille a 4.3% chance of the title and Le Mans 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Marseille the highest probability at 67%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.76 expected goals for Marseille against 1.06 for Le Mans. Marseille's attack/defence rating is 1.3/0.98 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.79/1.26 for Le Mans.
How the model reaches 67% for Marseille to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Marseille to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, Marseille's ratings add 13 points and Le Mans's ratings add 11 points, which lands on the published 67%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage43%+6
- Marseille's ratings56%+13
- Le Mans's ratings67%+11
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Marseille at home · Le Mans away
League matches only, Ligue 1, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
MarseilleLe Mans
Marseille are 4th after 10 Ligue 1 matches (between 1st and 17th so far); Le Mans are 15th after 10 (between 3rd and 17th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 1 matches this season: Marseille 10, Le Mans 10.
Marseille score most often in the 46–60 minute window (6 goals); Le Mans have let in 5 there.
Le Mans score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); Marseille have let in 2 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Marseille
- vs Levski Sofia26 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 59%
- at Auxerre29 Nov · Ligue 1win 54%
- vs Nice6 Dec · Ligue 1win 56%
- vs Celta Vigo10 Dec · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 52%
- at Lyon13 Dec · Ligue 1win 36%
Le Mans
- vs Lille28 Nov · Ligue 1win 20%
- at Paris FC5 Dec · Ligue 1win 14%
- at Le Havre12 Dec · Ligue 1win 34%
- vs Lyon3 Jan · Ligue 1win 27%
- at Strasbourg16 Jan · Ligue 1win 22%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.