Krasava Ypsonas
vs
AEK Larnaca
1. Division prediction
Our model says: Krasava Ypsonas 0–1 AEK Larnaca
The model makes it 18% Krasava Ypsonas, 26% draw, 56% AEK Larnaca — fair odds of 5.56, 3.85 and 1.79. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1 (13%).
Expected goals: Krasava Ypsonas 0.82, AEK Larnaca 1.82.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: AEK Larnaca are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Krasava Ypsonas are 12th on 3 points from 6 games; AEK Larnaca are top on 12 points from 5 games — 1. Division.
- Krasava Ypsonas have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Karmiotissa.
- AEK Larnaca have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Omonia Aradippou.
- Last 2 meetings: AEK Larnaca 2 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 18 January 2026, ended AEK Larnaca 2–1 Krasava Ypsonas.
More Cypriot First Division predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Krasava Ypsonas vs AEK Larnaca
Has the model earned this number?
It puts AEK Larnaca at 56% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 989 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Krasava Ypsonas vs AEK Larnaca
Krasava Ypsonas
- W2-1Karmiotissa17 October 2026
- L1-3Apollon Limassol10 October 2026
- L1-4away to Omonia Nicosia20 September 2026
- L0-1Aris14 September 2026
- L1-2away to Omonia Aradippou5 September 2026
AEK Larnaca
- W1-0Omonia Aradippou12 October 2026
- W2-1away to Omonia 29is Maiou18 September 2026
- L0-1Pafos13 September 2026
- W4-1away to Nea Salamis6 September 2026
- W3-1Apoel Nicosia29 August 2026
What these results say
- Krasava Ypsonas conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Krasava Ypsonas failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Krasava Ypsonas scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- AEK Larnaca won 4 of these 5 matches.
- AEK Larnaca scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- AEK Larnaca conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
1. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Krasava Ypsonas | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 14 | -9 | 3 |
| 1 | AEK Larnaca | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Krasava Ypsonas vs AEK Larnaca
- 18 January 2026AEK Larnaca 2–1 Krasava Ypsonas1. Division
- 27 September 2025Krasava Ypsonas 0–4 AEK Larnaca1. Division
A clear gap in the ratings
Krasava Ypsonas carry a model rating of 6.32 against 6.88 for AEK Larnaca. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.82 goals for Krasava Ypsonas and 1.82 for AEK Larnaca. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Krasava Ypsonas rate 0.57 in attack and 1.64 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; AEK Larnaca rate 0.92 and 0.88.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives AEK Larnaca the highest probability at 56%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.82 expected goals for Krasava Ypsonas against 1.82 for AEK Larnaca. Krasava Ypsonas's attack/defence rating is 0.57/1.64 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.92/0.88 for AEK Larnaca.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Krasava Ypsonas at home · AEK Larnaca away
League matches only, 1. Division, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. Division matches this season: Krasava Ypsonas 6, AEK Larnaca 5.
Krasava Ypsonas score most often in the 31–45 minute window (3 goals); AEK Larnaca have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Krasava Ypsonas
- at AEL7 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 22%
- vs Anorthosis23 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 41%
- at Apoel Nicosia28 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 17%
- vs Nea Salamis3 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 39%
AEK Larnaca
- vs Karmiotissa7 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 71%
- at Olympiakos22 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 45%
- vs Apollon Limassol27 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 53%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.