Omonia Nicosia
vs
AEL
1. Division prediction
Our model says: Omonia Nicosia 2–0 AEL
The model makes it 75% Omonia Nicosia, 17% draw, 8% AEL — fair odds of 1.33, 5.88 and 12.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (13%).
Expected goals: Omonia Nicosia 2.70, AEL 0.61.
Both teams to score: 43%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%, under 2.5: 36%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Omonia Nicosia are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Omonia Nicosia are 3rd on 11 points from 5 games; AEL are 2nd on 12 points from 5 games — 1. Division.
- Omonia Nicosia are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 3-0 win away to Karmiotissa.
- AEL are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Omonia 29is Maiou.
- Last 6 meetings: Omonia Nicosia 5 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 4 February 2026, ended Omonia Nicosia 1–2 AEL.
More Cypriot First Division predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Omonia Nicosia vs AEL
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Omonia Nicosia at 75% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 332 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 63.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 73.9%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal. The full record.
Form going into Omonia Nicosia vs AEL
Omonia Nicosia
- W3-0away to Karmiotissa9 October 2026
- W4-1Krasava Ypsonas20 September 2026
- D0-0Apollon Limassol12 September 2026
- W4-1away to Aris7 September 2026
- D0-0Omonia Aradippou31 August 2026
AEL
- W2-1Omonia 29is Maiou11 October 2026
- W2-0away to Pafos18 September 2026
- W2-1Nea Salamis11 September 2026
- L0-6away to Apoel Nicosia6 September 2026
- W2-0Anorthosis30 August 2026
What these results say
- Omonia Nicosia went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- AEL won 4 of these 5 matches.
- AEL scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
1. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Omonia Nicosia | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 2 | +9 | 11 |
| 2 | AEL | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Omonia Nicosia vs AEL
- 4 February 2026Omonia Nicosia 1–2 AELCup
- 9 January 2026AEL 0–2 Omonia Nicosia1. Division
- 22 September 2025Omonia Nicosia 5–0 AEL1. Division
- 28 January 2025Omonia Nicosia 3–0 AELCup
- 12 January 2025AEL 0–4 Omonia Nicosia1. Division
- 27 September 2024Omonia Nicosia 3–1 AEL1. Division
A clear gap in the ratings
Omonia Nicosia carry a model rating of 7.06 against 6.47 for AEL. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.70 goals for Omonia Nicosia and 0.61 for AEL. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Omonia Nicosia rate 1.17 in attack and 0.77 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; AEL rate 0.66 and 1.42.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour AEL, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Omonia Nicosia the highest probability at 75%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.70 expected goals for Omonia Nicosia against 0.61 for AEL. Omonia Nicosia's attack/defence rating is 1.17/0.77 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.66/1.42 for AEL.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Omonia Nicosia at home · AEL away
League matches only, 1. Division, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. Division matches this season: Omonia Nicosia 5, AEL 5.
AEL score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); Omonia Nicosia have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Omonia Nicosia
- at NEC Nijmegen5 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 45%
- at Anorthosis8 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 63%
AEL
- vs Krasava Ypsonas7 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 52%
- at Karmiotissa22 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 36%
- vs Olympiakos27 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 40%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.