MC Alger
vs
Khenchela
Ligue 1 prediction
Our model says: MC Alger 1–0 Khenchela
The model makes it 58% MC Alger, 25% draw, 17% Khenchela — fair odds of 1.72, 4.00 and 5.88. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (14%).
Expected goals: MC Alger 1.81, Khenchela 0.73.
Both teams to score: 44%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,598 settled matches.
One-sided: MC Alger are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. MC Alger's rating is built from 33 Ligue 1 (Algeria) matches and Khenchela's from 36, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- MC Alger are 9th on 7 points from 3 games; Khenchela are 13th on 5 points from 6 games — Ligue 1.
- MC Alger are unbeaten in their last 3 games (2 won), most recently a 1-1 draw away to ASO Chlef.
- Khenchela have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat at home to JS Kabylie.
- Last 6 meetings: MC Alger 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 17 March 2026, ended MC Alger 2–1 Khenchela.
More Ligue 1 (Algeria) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: MC Alger vs Khenchela
Has the model earned this number?
It puts MC Alger at 58% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 1,179 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into MC Alger vs Khenchela
MC Alger
Ligue 1
- D1-1away to ASO Chlef13 October 2026
- W1-0Témouchent9 October 2026
- W2-0MB Rouisset18 September 2026
Khenchela
Ligue 1
- L0-3JS Kabylie24 October 2026
- L0-1away to MC Oran17 October 2026
- W2-0CS Constantine12 October 2026
- L0-1away to CR Belouizdad7 October 2026
- D1-1Ben Aknoun18 September 2026
What these results say
- Khenchela failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Khenchela conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Khenchela had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | MC Alger | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 7 |
| 13 | Khenchela | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
MC Alger
Chance to finish in the top two · 36% today
Khenchela
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 33% today
From our Ligue 1 season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: MC Alger vs Khenchela
- 17 March 2026MC Alger 2–1 KhenchelaLigue 1
- 13 December 2025MC Alger 2–1 KhenchelaCoupe Nationale
- 30 October 2025Khenchela 0–1 MC AlgerLigue 1
- 15 March 2025MC Alger 2–2 KhenchelaLigue 1
- 18 October 2024Khenchela 0–1 MC AlgerLigue 1
- 11 May 2024Khenchela 1–1 MC AlgerLigue 1
The two sides
MC Alger carry a model rating of 6.5 against 6.19 for Khenchela. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.81 goals for MC Alger and 0.73 for Khenchela. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
MC Alger rate 0.62 in attack and 1.26 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Khenchela rate 0.48 and 1.79.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives MC Alger a 19.6% chance of the title and Khenchela 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,356 correct results out of 4,913 settled predictions (48%), with 486 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
How the call on MC Alger v Khenchela has moved
First published on 6 Oct at 51% / 28% / 21% (home / draw / away). After 4 updates it reads 58% / 25% / 17%: the biggest move is MC Alger's chance of winning, up 7 points.
- MC Alger win58%▲ +7
- Draw25%▼ −3
- Khenchela win17%▼ −4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives MC Alger the highest probability at 58%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.81 expected goals for MC Alger against 0.73 for Khenchela. MC Alger's attack/defence rating is 0.62/1.26 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.48/1.79 for Khenchela.
How the model reaches 58% for MC Alger to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for MC Alger to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, MC Alger's ratings take away 18 points and Khenchela's ratings add 32 points, which lands on the published 58%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- MC Alger's ratings26%−18
- Khenchela's ratings58%+32
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
MC Alger at home · Khenchela away
League matches only, Ligue 1, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 1 matches this season: MC Alger 3, Khenchela 6.
MC Alger score most often in the 0–15 minute window (2 goals); Khenchela have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
MC Alger
Khenchela
- vs ES Setif7 Nov · Ligue 1win 38%
- vs Témouchent8 Nov · Ligue 1win 44%
- at JS Saoura13 Nov · Ligue 1win 25%
- at US Biskra21 Nov · Ligue 1win 39%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.