ASO Chlef
vs
Khenchela
Ligue 1 prediction
Our model says: ASO Chlef 0–1 Khenchela
The model makes it 35% ASO Chlef, 29% draw, 36% Khenchela — fair odds of 2.86, 3.45 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: ASO Chlef 1.22, Khenchela 1.24.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: ASO Chlef and Khenchela are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Key facts
- ASO Chlef are 14th on 2 points from 5 games; Khenchela are 12th on 5 points from 4 games — Ligue 1.
- ASO Chlef have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to MC Alger.
- Khenchela have won 1 of their last 4 games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to CS Constantine.
- Last 6 meetings: Khenchela 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 4 February 2026, ended Khenchela 2–2 ASO Chlef.
More Ligue 1 (Algeria) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: ASO Chlef vs Khenchela
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Khenchela at 36% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 3,180 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into ASO Chlef vs Khenchela
ASO Chlef
- D1-1MC Alger13 October 2026
- L0-1away to JS Kabylie9 October 2026
- L0-1MC Oran18 September 2026
- L0-3away to CS Constantine12 September 2026
- D3-3CR Belouizdad5 September 2026
Khenchela
- W2-0CS Constantine12 October 2026
- L0-1away to CR Belouizdad7 October 2026
- D1-1Ben Aknoun18 September 2026
- D0-0USM Alger4 September 2026
What these results say
- ASO Chlef did not win any of these 5 matches.
- ASO Chlef conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Khenchela had two goals or fewer.
- Khenchela failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | ASO Chlef | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 2 |
| 12 | Khenchela | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: ASO Chlef vs Khenchela
- 4 February 2026Khenchela 2–2 ASO ChlefLigue 1
- 30 August 2025ASO Chlef 1–2 KhenchelaLigue 1
- 7 March 2025Khenchela 3–2 ASO ChlefLigue 1
- 22 October 2024ASO Chlef 1–1 KhenchelaLigue 1
- 17 May 2024ASO Chlef 4–1 KhenchelaLigue 1
- 29 December 2023Khenchela 2–1 ASO ChlefLigue 1
The two sides
ASO Chlef carry a model rating of 6.13 against 6.29 for Khenchela. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.22 goals for ASO Chlef and 1.24 for Khenchela. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
ASO Chlef rate 0.46 in attack and 1.94 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Khenchela rate 0.53 and 1.63.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Khenchela the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.22 expected goals for ASO Chlef against 1.24 for Khenchela. ASO Chlef's attack/defence rating is 0.46/1.94 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.53/1.63 for Khenchela.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
ASO Chlef at home · Khenchela away
League matches only, Ligue 1, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 1 matches this season: ASO Chlef 5, Khenchela 4.
ASO Chlef score most often in the 0–15 minute window (2 goals); Khenchela have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
Next match, by difficulty
ASO Chlef
- at JS El Biar7 Nov · Ligue 1win 19%
Khenchela
No further matches on our board yet.
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.