Jaguares
vs
Bucaramanga
Primera A prediction
Our model says: Jaguares 0–1 Bucaramanga
The model makes it 29% Jaguares, 27% draw, 44% Bucaramanga — fair odds of 3.45, 3.70 and 2.27. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Jaguares 1.18, Bucaramanga 1.58.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,236 settled matches.
One-sided: Bucaramanga are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. Jaguares's rating is built from 33 Colombian Primera A matches and Bucaramanga's from 78, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,233 matches.
Key facts
- Jaguares are 19th on 10 points from 14 games; Bucaramanga are 5th on 25 points from 14 games — Primera A.
- Jaguares have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Santa Fe.
- Bucaramanga are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Chico.
- Last 6 meetings: Bucaramanga 3 wins to 0, 3 draws; the most recent, 25 April 2026, ended Bucaramanga 2–2 Jaguares.
More Colombian Primera A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Jaguares vs Bucaramanga
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Bucaramanga at 44% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 2,217 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Jaguares vs Bucaramanga
Jaguares
Primera A
- L1-2away to Santa Fe22 October 2026
- L1-4away to Millonarios17 October 2026
- W3-2Deportes Tolima11 October 2026
- L0-2away to Águilas Doradas3 October 2026
- L1-2Alianza Valledupar27 September 2026
Bucaramanga
Primera A
- L0-1away to Chico23 October 2026
- D1-1America de Cali18 October 2026
- D1-1Águilas Doradas13 October 2026
- W3-1Junior4 October 2026
- W3-1away to Once Caldas26 September 2026
What these results say
- Jaguares conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Jaguares failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Jaguares scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Bucaramanga conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Bucaramanga scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Bucaramanga.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Jaguares | 14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 16 | 28 | -12 | 10 |
| 5 | Bucaramanga | 14 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 22 | 13 | +9 | 25 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Jaguares vs Bucaramanga
- 25 April 2026Bucaramanga 2–2 JaguaresPrimera A
- 28 July 2024Bucaramanga 0–0 JaguaresPrimera A
- 2 February 2024Jaguares 0–1 BucaramangaPrimera A
- 7 August 2023Bucaramanga 3–0 JaguaresPrimera A
- 11 February 2023Jaguares 1–1 BucaramangaPrimera A
- 20 September 2022Jaguares 0–1 BucaramangaPrimera A
Leading scorers: Jaguares and Bucaramanga
Jaguares
GoalsAssists
- A. Rentería113
Bucaramanga
GoalsAssists
- L. Pons125
- E. Batalla115
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Jaguares carry a model rating of 6.3 against 6.61 for Bucaramanga. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.18 goals for Jaguares and 1.58 for Bucaramanga. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Jaguares rate 0.66 in attack and 2.04 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Bucaramanga rate 0.76 and 1.23.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Jaguares a 0% chance of the title and Bucaramanga 3.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Bucaramanga the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Jaguares against 1.58 for Bucaramanga. Jaguares's attack/defence rating is 0.66/2.04 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.76/1.23 for Bucaramanga.
How the model reaches 44% for Bucaramanga to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 35% for Bucaramanga to win. Then home advantage takes away 8 points, Jaguares's ratings add 31 points and Bucaramanga's ratings take away 14 points, which lands on the published 44%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground35%
- Home advantage27%−8
- Jaguares's ratings58%+31
- Bucaramanga's ratings44%−14
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Jaguares at home · Bucaramanga away
League matches only, Primera A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera A matches this season: Jaguares 32, Bucaramanga 32.
Jaguares score most often in the 76–90 minute window (11 goals); Bucaramanga have let in 9 there.
Bucaramanga score most often in the 31–45 minute window (14 goals); Jaguares have let in 9 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
Next match, by difficulty
Jaguares
- at Cucuta12 Nov · Primera Awin 23%
Bucaramanga
- vs Fortaleza FC12 Nov · Primera Awin 58%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.