Auxerre
vs
Paris FC
Ligue 1 prediction
Our model says: Auxerre 1–2 Paris FC
The model makes it 25% Auxerre, 25% draw, 50% Paris FC — fair odds of 4.00, 4.00 and 2.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Auxerre 1.23, Paris FC 1.93.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,486 settled matches.
One-sided: Paris FC are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Auxerre's rating is built from 41 Ligue 1 (France) matches and Paris FC's from 41, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 679 matches.
Key facts
- Auxerre are 13th on 9 points from 7 games; Paris FC are 3rd on 14 points from 7 games — Ligue 1.
- Auxerre have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-1 win away to Le Havre.
- Paris FC have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 4-3 win at home to Rennes.
- Last 5 meetings: Auxerre 2 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 8 February 2026, ended Auxerre 0–0 Paris FC.
More Ligue 1 (France) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Auxerre vs Paris FC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Paris FC at 50% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 1,113 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Auxerre vs Paris FC
Auxerre
Ligue 1
- W3-1away to Le Havre18 October 2026
- L1-4away to Rennes11 October 2026
- W2-1Stade Brestois 2920 September 2026
- W1-0Nice12 September 2026
- L1-3away to Lyon4 September 2026
Paris FC
Ligue 1
- W4-3Rennes18 October 2026
- L0-1away to Lorient10 October 2026
- W2-1Strasbourg19 September 2026
- D0-0Lyon12 September 2026
- W3-2away to Marseille6 September 2026
What these results say
- Auxerre scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Auxerre conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Auxerre had three goals or more.
- Paris FC conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Auxerre | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 17 | -6 | 9 |
| 3 | Paris FC | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 7 | +5 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Auxerre vs Paris FC
- 8 February 2026Auxerre 0–0 Paris FCLigue 1
- 29 November 2025Paris FC 1–1 AuxerreLigue 1
- 4 May 2024Auxerre 2–0 Paris FCLigue 2
- 7 October 2023Paris FC 0–2 AuxerreLigue 2
- 1 February 2022Auxerre 1–2 Paris FCLigue 2
Leading scorers: Auxerre and Paris FC
Auxerre
GoalsAssists
- C. Archer40
- D. Namaso32
Paris FC
GoalsAssists
- L. Sinayoko63
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Auxerre carry a model rating of 6.7 against 7.02 for Paris FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.23 goals for Auxerre and 1.93 for Paris FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Auxerre rate 0.88 in attack and 1.20 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Paris FC rate 1.16 and 0.83.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Auxerre a 0.1% chance of the title and Paris FC 9.7%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Paris FC the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Auxerre against 1.93 for Paris FC. Auxerre's attack/defence rating is 0.88/1.2 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.16/0.83 for Paris FC.
How the model reaches 50% for Paris FC to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Paris FC to win. Then home advantage takes away 5 points, Auxerre's ratings add 8 points and Paris FC's ratings add 10 points, which lands on the published 50%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage32%−5
- Auxerre's ratings40%+8
- Paris FC's ratings50%+10
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Auxerre at home · Paris FC away
League matches only, Ligue 1, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
AuxerreParis FC
Auxerre are 13th after 7 Ligue 1 matches (between 9th and 18th so far); Paris FC are 3rd after 7 (between 1st and 9th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 1 matches this season: Auxerre 7, Paris FC 7.
Auxerre score most often in the 61–75 minute window (4 goals); Paris FC have let in 2 there.
Paris FC score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Auxerre have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Auxerre
- at Monaco21 Nov · Ligue 1win 18%
- vs Marseille29 Nov · Ligue 1win 28%
- at Lille5 Dec · Ligue 1win 17%
Paris FC
- vs Angers22 Nov · Ligue 1win 68%
- at Stade Brestois 2927 Nov · Ligue 1win 46%
- vs Le Mans5 Dec · Ligue 1win 65%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.