Istra 1961
vs
NK Varazdin
HNL prediction
Our model says: Istra 1961 1–0 NK Varazdin
The model makes it 40% Istra 1961, 30% draw, 30% NK Varazdin — fair odds of 2.50, 3.33 and 3.33.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Istra 1961 1.29, NK Varazdin 1.03.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 41%, under 2.5: 59%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,921 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 13 November 2026. Istra 1961's rating is built from 49 Croatian HNL matches and NK Varazdin's from 49, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 424 matches.
Key facts
- Istra 1961 are 4th on 19 points from 13 games; NK Varazdin are 5th on 19 points from 13 games — HNL.
- Istra 1961 are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 3-1 win at home to HNK Rijeka.
- NK Varazdin are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat at home to Dinamo Zagreb.
- Last 6 meetings: Istra 1961 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 4 September 2026, ended NK Varazdin 0–0 Istra 1961.
More Croatian HNL predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Istra 1961 vs NK Varazdin
Has the model earned this number?
Istra 1961 at 40%: of 2,926 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Istra 1961 vs NK Varazdin
Istra 1961
HNL
- W3-1HNK Rijeka7 November 2026
- W2-0away to NK Slaven Belupo30 October 2026
- D2-2HNK Hajduk Split26 October 2026
- L0-2away to NK Lokomotiva Zagreb17 October 2026
- W3-1away to NK Osijek10 October 2026
NK Varazdin
HNL
- L1-3Dinamo Zagreb8 November 2026
- D1-1away to HNK Rijeka1 November 2026
- L1-2NK Slaven Belupo24 October 2026
- L0-1away to HNK Hajduk Split18 October 2026
- W1-0away to NK Lokomotiva Zagreb11 October 2026
What these results say
- Istra 1961 scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Istra 1961 conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- NK Varazdin failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- NK Varazdin scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- NK Varazdin conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
HNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Istra 1961 | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 24 | 19 | +5 | 19 |
| 5 | NK Varazdin | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 17 | 14 | +3 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Istra 1961 vs NK Varazdin
- 4 September 2026NK Varazdin 0–0 Istra 1961HNL
- 23 May 2026NK Varazdin 2–0 Istra 1961HNL
- 20 March 2026Istra 1961 2–1 NK VarazdinHNL
- 19 December 2025NK Varazdin 1–3 Istra 1961HNL
- 3 October 2025Istra 1961 1–0 NK VarazdinHNL
- 11 May 2025Istra 1961 0–0 NK VarazdinHNL
Leading scorers: Istra 1961 and NK Varazdin
Istra 1961
GoalsAssists
- E. Frederiksen115
- H. Jaganjac52
- D. Ahmeti34
NK Varazdin
GoalsAssists
- L. Mamić60
- I. Canjuga33
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Istra 1961 a 0.3% chance of the title and NK Varazdin 0.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Istra 1961 the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Istra 1961 against 1.03 for NK Varazdin. Istra 1961's attack/defence rating is 0.65/1.53 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.57/1.27 for NK Varazdin.
How the model reaches 40% for Istra 1961 to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Istra 1961 to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, Istra 1961's ratings add 1 point and NK Varazdin's ratings take away 2 points, which lands on the published 40%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage43%+7
- Both sides at this match's level41%−2
- Istra 1961's ratings42%+1
- NK Varazdin's ratings40%−2
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Istra 1961 at home · NK Varazdin away
League matches only, HNL, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
Istra 1961NK Varazdin
Istra 1961 are 4th after 13 HNL matches (between 4th and 9th so far); NK Varazdin are 5th after 13 (between 1st and 5th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All HNL matches this season: Istra 1961 13, NK Varazdin 13.
Istra 1961 score most often in the 16–30 minute window (6 goals); NK Varazdin have let in 2 there.
NK Varazdin score most often in the 16–30 minute window (5 goals); Istra 1961 have let in 2 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Istra 1961
- at Rudes5 Dec · HNLwin 36%
- at HNK Gorica12 Dec · HNLwin 41%
- vs NK Osijek19 Dec · HNLwin 46%
- vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb23 Jan · HNLwin 50%
NK Varazdin
- vs HNK Gorica6 Dec · HNLwin 54%
- at NK Osijek13 Dec · HNLwin 33%
- vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb19 Dec · HNLwin 49%
- vs HNK Hajduk Split23 Jan · HNLwin 30%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.