Dinamo Zagreb
vs
Istra 1961
HNL prediction
Our model says: Dinamo Zagreb 2–0 Istra 1961
The model makes it 66% Dinamo Zagreb, 20% draw, 14% Istra 1961 — fair odds of 1.52, 5.00 and 7.14.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (10%).
Expected goals: Dinamo Zagreb 2.51, Istra 1961 0.92.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 67%, under 2.5: 33%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
One-sided: Dinamo Zagreb are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 10 November 2026. Dinamo Zagreb's rating is built from 48 Croatian HNL matches and Istra 1961's from 49, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 424 matches.
Key facts
- Dinamo Zagreb are 2nd on 25 points from 12 games; Istra 1961 are 4th on 19 points from 13 games — HNL.
- Dinamo Zagreb have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-1 win away to NK Varazdin.
- Istra 1961 are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 3-1 win at home to HNK Rijeka.
- Last 6 meetings: Dinamo Zagreb 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 29 August 2026, ended Istra 1961 2–2 Dinamo Zagreb.
More Croatian HNL predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Dinamo Zagreb vs Istra 1961
Has the model earned this number?
Dinamo Zagreb at 66%: of 501 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.5% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Dinamo Zagreb vs Istra 1961
Dinamo Zagreb
HNL
- W3-1away to NK Varazdin8 November 2026
- L0-1away to Rudes31 October 2026
- W2-1HNK Rijeka27 October 2026
- W5-1away to NK Slaven Belupo18 October 2026
- L1-2away to HNK Hajduk Split10 October 2026
Istra 1961
HNL
- W3-1HNK Rijeka7 November 2026
- W2-0away to NK Slaven Belupo30 October 2026
- D2-2HNK Hajduk Split26 October 2026
- L0-2away to NK Lokomotiva Zagreb17 October 2026
- W3-1away to NK Osijek10 October 2026
What these results say
- Dinamo Zagreb conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Dinamo Zagreb scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Dinamo Zagreb had three goals or more.
- Istra 1961 scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Istra 1961 conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
HNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Dinamo Zagreb | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 28 | 15 | +13 | 25 |
| 4 | Istra 1961 | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 24 | 19 | +5 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Dinamo Zagreb
Chance to win the league · 63% today
Istra 1961
Chance to finish in the top four · 43% today
From our HNL season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Dinamo Zagreb vs Istra 1961
- 29 August 2026Istra 1961 2–2 Dinamo ZagrebHNL
- 22 April 2026Istra 1961 0–2 Dinamo ZagrebHNL
- 14 February 2026Dinamo Zagreb 4–0 Istra 1961HNL
- 9 November 2025Istra 1961 2–1 Dinamo ZagrebHNL
- 23 August 2025Dinamo Zagreb 3–0 Istra 1961HNL
- 5 April 2025Istra 1961 3–0 Dinamo ZagrebHNL
Leading scorers: Dinamo Zagreb and Istra 1961
Dinamo Zagreb
GoalsAssists
- D. Beljo136
- L. Stojković32
Istra 1961
GoalsAssists
- E. Frederiksen115
- H. Jaganjac52
- D. Ahmeti34
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Dinamo Zagreb a 62.9% chance of the title and Istra 1961 0.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Dinamo Zagreb the highest probability at 66%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.51 expected goals for Dinamo Zagreb against 0.92 for Istra 1961. Dinamo Zagreb's attack/defence rating is 1.05/1.2 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.65/1.53 for Istra 1961.
How the model reaches 66% for Dinamo Zagreb to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Dinamo Zagreb to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, the level of the two sides adds 2 points, Dinamo Zagreb's ratings add 11 points and Istra 1961's ratings add 10 points, which lands on the published 66%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage43%+7
- Both sides at this match's level45%+2
- Dinamo Zagreb's ratings56%+11
- Istra 1961's ratings66%+10
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Dinamo Zagreb at home · Istra 1961 away
League matches only, HNL, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
Dinamo ZagrebIstra 1961
Dinamo Zagreb are 2nd after 12 HNL matches (between 1st and 3rd so far); Istra 1961 are 4th after 13 (between 4th and 9th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All HNL matches this season: Dinamo Zagreb 12, Istra 1961 13.
Dinamo Zagreb score most often in the 16–30 minute window (7 goals); Istra 1961 have let in 2 there.
Istra 1961 score most often in the 16–30 minute window (6 goals); Dinamo Zagreb have let in 5 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Dinamo Zagreb
- vs Bayer Leverkusen26 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 32%
- at HNK Gorica28 Nov · HNLwin 62%
- at HNK Rijeka3 Dec · HNLwin 47%
- vs NK Osijek5 Dec · HNLwin 68%
- at Rennes10 Dec · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 28%
Istra 1961
- vs NK Varazdin28 Nov · HNLwin 40%
- at Rudes5 Dec · HNLwin 36%
- at HNK Gorica12 Dec · HNLwin 41%
- vs NK Osijek19 Dec · HNLwin 46%
- vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb23 Jan · HNLwin 50%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.