NK Slaven Belupo
vs
NK Osijek
HNL prediction
Our model says: NK Slaven Belupo 2–1 NK Osijek
The model makes it 41% NK Slaven Belupo, 27% draw, 32% NK Osijek — fair odds of 2.44, 3.70 and 3.13.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: NK Slaven Belupo 1.55, NK Osijek 1.32.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. NK Slaven Belupo's rating is built from 49 Croatian HNL matches and NK Osijek's from 49, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 424 matches.
Key facts
- NK Slaven Belupo are 7th on 16 points from 13 games; NK Osijek are 3rd on 20 points from 13 games — HNL.
- NK Slaven Belupo have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 5-3 win away to HNK Gorica.
- NK Osijek have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to HNK Hajduk Split.
- Last 6 meetings: NK Osijek 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 30 August 2026, ended NK Osijek 3–0 NK Slaven Belupo.
More Croatian HNL predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: NK Slaven Belupo vs NK Osijek
Has the model earned this number?
NK Slaven Belupo at 41%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into NK Slaven Belupo vs NK Osijek
NK Slaven Belupo
HNL
- W5-3away to HNK Gorica7 November 2026
- L0-2Istra 196130 October 2026
- W2-1away to NK Varazdin24 October 2026
- L1-5Dinamo Zagreb18 October 2026
- W4-1HNK Rijeka11 October 2026
NK Osijek
HNL
- L0-1HNK Hajduk Split8 November 2026
- W3-1away to NK Lokomotiva Zagreb1 November 2026
- L0-1Rudes25 October 2026
- D1-1HNK Gorica17 October 2026
- L1-3Istra 196110 October 2026
What these results say
- NK Slaven Belupo conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- NK Slaven Belupo scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for NK Slaven Belupo had three goals or more.
- NK Osijek conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- NK Osijek failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
HNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | NK Slaven Belupo | 13 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 19 | 28 | -9 | 16 |
| 3 | NK Osijek | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 22 | 18 | +4 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
NK Slaven Belupo
Chance to finish in the top four · 12% today
NK Osijek
Chance to finish in the top four · 26% today
From our HNL season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: NK Slaven Belupo vs NK Osijek
- 30 August 2026NK Osijek 3–0 NK Slaven BelupoHNL
- 22 May 2026NK Osijek 2–0 NK Slaven BelupoHNL
- 22 March 2026NK Slaven Belupo 0–0 NK OsijekHNL
- 20 December 2025NK Osijek 0–0 NK Slaven BelupoHNL
- 4 October 2025NK Slaven Belupo 2–1 NK OsijekHNL
- 4 May 2025NK Slaven Belupo 1–4 NK OsijekHNL
Leading scorers: NK Slaven Belupo and NK Osijek
NK Slaven Belupo
GoalsAssists
- I. Nestorovski92
- J. Mitrović32
- L. Banovec32
NK Osijek
GoalsAssists
- A. León61
- N. Omerović50
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour NK Osijek (third, with NK Slaven Belupo seventh), while our numbers lean to NK Slaven Belupo. NK Slaven Belupo rate 0.66 in attack and 2.03 in defence, NK Osijek 0.55 and 1.51 (lower is better in defence), so NK Slaven Belupo have been the better side in attack on recent expected goals, which the 4-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives NK Slaven Belupo a 0% chance of the title and NK Osijek 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How the call on NK Slaven Belupo v NK Osijek has moved
First published on 7 Nov at 38% / 28% / 34% (home / draw / away). After 1 update it reads 41% / 27% / 32%: the biggest move is NK Slaven Belupo's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- NK Slaven Belupo win41%▲ +3
- Draw27%▼ −1
- NK Osijek win32%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives NK Slaven Belupo the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.55 expected goals for NK Slaven Belupo against 1.32 for NK Osijek. NK Slaven Belupo's attack/defence rating is 0.66/2.03 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.55/1.51 for NK Osijek.
How the model reaches 41% for NK Slaven Belupo to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for NK Slaven Belupo to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, NK Slaven Belupo's ratings change nothing and NK Osijek's ratings take away 3 points, which lands on the published 41%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage43%+7
- Both sides at this match's level44%+1
- NK Slaven Belupo's ratings44%±0
- NK Osijek's ratings41%−3
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
NK Slaven Belupo at home · NK Osijek away
League matches only, HNL, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
NK Slaven BelupoNK Osijek
NK Slaven Belupo are 7th after 13 HNL matches (between 6th and 10th so far); NK Osijek are 3rd after 13 (between 1st and 5th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All HNL matches this season: NK Slaven Belupo 13, NK Osijek 13.
NK Slaven Belupo score most often in the 61–75 minute window (7 goals); NK Osijek have let in 3 there.
NK Osijek score most often in the 0–15 minute window (8 goals); NK Slaven Belupo have let in 3 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
NK Slaven Belupo
- at NK Lokomotiva Zagreb28 Nov · HNLwin 31%
- vs HNK Hajduk Split5 Dec · HNLwin 23%
- vs Rudes12 Dec · HNLwin 46%
- at HNK Rijeka19 Dec · HNLwin 22%
- at Dinamo Zagreb23 Jan · HNLwin 9%
NK Osijek
- vs HNK Rijeka28 Nov · HNLwin 36%
- at Dinamo Zagreb5 Dec · HNLwin 12%
- vs NK Varazdin12 Dec · HNLwin 36%
- at Istra 196119 Dec · HNLwin 26%
- at HNK Gorica23 Jan · HNLwin 36%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.