Regular Season - 14 · 21 November 2026, 14:00 UTC

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs HNK Hajduk Split HNL prediction

Stadion Maksimir, Zagreb

Our model says: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 0–1 HNK Hajduk Split

The model makes it 22% NK Lokomotiva Zagreb, 28% draw, 50% HNK Hajduk Split — fair odds of 4.55, 3.57 and 2.00.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1 (14%).

Expected goals: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 0.84, HNK Hajduk Split 1.54.

Both teams to score: 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 42%, under 2.5: 58%.

Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.

One-sided: HNK Hajduk Split are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.

Published 12 November 2026

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. NK Lokomotiva Zagreb's rating is built from 49 Croatian HNL matches and HNK Hajduk Split's from 49, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 424 matches.

Key facts

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb are 9th on 11 points from 13 games; HNK Hajduk Split are top on 29 points from 13 games — HNL.
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Rudes.
HNK Hajduk Split are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 1-0 win away to NK Osijek.
Last 6 meetings: HNK Hajduk Split 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 31 August 2026, ended HNK Hajduk Split 2–0 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb.

More Croatian HNL predictions

All Croatian HNL predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs HNK Hajduk Split

45%

Both teams to score

42%

Over 2.5 goals

58%

Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb win Draw HNK Hajduk Split win

0–114%
1–113%
0–211%
0–010%
1–29%
1–07%
0–36%

Scores read NK Lokomotiva Zagreb first; the other scorelines share the remaining 30%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

HNK Hajduk Split at 50%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs HNK Hajduk Split

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

HNL

L0-1Rudes6 November 2026
L1-3NK Osijek1 November 2026
D0-0away to HNK Gorica24 October 2026
W2-0Istra 196117 October 2026
L0-1NK Varazdin11 October 2026

HNK Hajduk Split

HNL

W1-0away to NK Osijek8 November 2026
W5-0HNK Gorica31 October 2026
D2-2away to Istra 196126 October 2026
W1-0NK Varazdin18 October 2026
W2-1Dinamo Zagreb10 October 2026

What these results say

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
4 of these 5 matches for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb had two goals or fewer.
HNK Hajduk Split went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
HNK Hajduk Split scored in every one of these 5 matches.
HNK Hajduk Split won 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

HNL table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
9	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb	13	3	2	8	14	21	-7	11
1	HNK Hajduk Split	13	9	2	2	27	11	+16	29

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

Chance to finish in the bottom one · 17% today

Win 12%

Draw 17%

Defeat 20%

HNK Hajduk Split

Chance to win the league · 38% today

Win 42%

Draw 35%

Defeat 31%

From our HNL season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs HNK Hajduk Split

31 August 2026HNK Hajduk Split 2–0 NK Lokomotiva ZagrebHNL
16 May 2026NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1–1 HNK Hajduk SplitHNL
15 March 2026HNK Hajduk Split 2–1 NK Lokomotiva ZagrebHNL
13 December 2025NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1–3 HNK Hajduk SplitHNL
27 September 2025HNK Hajduk Split 2–0 NK Lokomotiva ZagrebHNL
13 April 2025HNK Hajduk Split 1–1 NK Lokomotiva ZagrebHNL

Leading scorers: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb and HNK Hajduk Split

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

GoalsAssists

D. Vuković32

HNK Hajduk Split

GoalsAssists

M. Šego51
A. Sanyang32
Carlos Martín31

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives NK Lokomotiva Zagreb a 0% chance of the title and HNK Hajduk Split 38.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb HNK Hajduk Split

0.48 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.83

1.57 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.12

0.84 Model expected goals (this match) 1.54

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives HNK Hajduk Split the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.84 expected goals for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb against 1.54 for HNK Hajduk Split. NK Lokomotiva Zagreb's attack/defence rating is 0.48/1.57 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.83/1.12 for HNK Hajduk Split.

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb carry a model rating of 6.27 against 6.7 for HNK Hajduk Split.

How the model reaches 50% for HNK Hajduk Split to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for HNK Hajduk Split to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, NK Lokomotiva Zagreb's ratings add 9 points and HNK Hajduk Split's ratings add 12 points, which lands on the published 50%.

Two average sides, neutral ground36%
Home advantage29%−7
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb's ratings38%+9
HNK Hajduk Split's ratings50%+12

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Goal trends

NK Lokomotiva ZagrebModelHNK Hajduk Split

Over 1.5 goals

70%

7 of 10 games

69%

model, this match

70%

7 of 10 games

Over 2.5 goals

40%

4 of 10 games

42%

model, this match

60%

6 of 10 games

Over 3.5 goals

30%

3 of 10 games

22%

model, this match

40%

4 of 10 games

Both teams score

50%

5 of 10 games

45%

model, this match

20%

2 of 10 games

Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.

Season stats

NK Lokomotiva ZagrebHNK Hajduk Split

13Matches13

3W 2D 8LRecord9W 2D 2L

14 1.1 per gameGoals scored27 2.1 per game

21 1.6 per gameGoals conceded11 0.8 per game

2 of 13Clean sheets7 of 13

5 of 13Failed to score1 of 13

–Penalties scored1 of 2

35 2.7 per gameYellow cards27 2.1 per game

5Red cards0

4-2-3-1 10×Usual shape4-2-3-1 12×

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb at home · HNK Hajduk Split away

6Played6

2W 1D 3LRecord3W 1D 2L

7–7Goals for – against10–8

1 of 6Clean sheets2 of 6

League matches only, HNL, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Position by match

NK Lokomotiva ZagrebHNK Hajduk Split

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb are 9th after 13 HNL matches (between 2nd and 9th so far); HNK Hajduk Split are 1st after 13 (between 1st and 8th). How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All HNL matches this season: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 13, HNK Hajduk Split 13.

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb scored 222223

HNK Hajduk Split conceded 023223

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); HNK Hajduk Split have let in 3 there.

HNK Hajduk Split scored 542717

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb conceded 243912

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

vs NK Slaven Belupo28 Nov · HNLwin 42%
at HNK Rijeka7 Dec · HNLwin 21%
vs Dinamo Zagreb14 Dec · HNLwin 19%
at NK Varazdin19 Dec · HNLwin 21%
at Istra 196123 Jan · HNLwin 22%

HNK Hajduk Split

vs St. Truiden26 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 31%
vs Rudes29 Nov · HNLwin 67%
at NK Slaven Belupo5 Dec · HNLwin 52%
vs FC Nordsjaelland10 Dec · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 45%
vs HNK Rijeka13 Dec · HNLwin 56%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.