Regular Season - 14 · 21 November 2026, 16:00 UTC

Rudes vs NK Varazdin HNL prediction

SC Rudes, Zagreb

Our model says: Rudes 0–1 NK Varazdin

The model makes it 34% Rudes, 29% draw, 37% NK Varazdin — fair odds of 2.94, 3.45 and 2.70.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

Expected goals: Rudes 1.17, NK Varazdin 1.24.

Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 43%, under 2.5: 57%.

Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,304 settled matches.

A tight game: Rudes and NK Varazdin are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.

Published 7 November 2026 · updated 10 November 2026

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 10 November 2026. Rudes's rating is built from 13 Croatian HNL matches and NK Varazdin's from 49, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 424 matches.

Key facts

Rudes are 8th on 16 points from 13 games; NK Varazdin are 5th on 19 points from 13 games — HNL.
Rudes are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to NK Lokomotiva Zagreb.
NK Varazdin are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat at home to Dinamo Zagreb.
Last 6 meetings: NK Varazdin 5 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 29 August 2026, ended NK Varazdin 2–0 Rudes.

More Croatian HNL predictions

All Croatian HNL predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Rudes vs NK Varazdin

50%

Both teams to score

43%

Over 2.5 goals

57%

Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Rudes win Draw NK Varazdin win

1–114%
0–111%
1–010%
0–010%
1–28%
2–18%
0–27%

Scores read Rudes first; the other scorelines share the remaining 33%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

NK Varazdin at 37%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Rudes vs NK Varazdin

Rudes

HNL

W1-0away to NK Lokomotiva Zagreb6 November 2026
W1-0Dinamo Zagreb31 October 2026
W1-0away to NK Osijek25 October 2026
L1-2HNK Rijeka16 October 2026
W2-1away to HNK Gorica9 October 2026

NK Varazdin

HNL

L1-3Dinamo Zagreb8 November 2026
D1-1away to HNK Rijeka1 November 2026
L1-2NK Slaven Belupo24 October 2026
L0-1away to HNK Hajduk Split18 October 2026
W1-0away to NK Lokomotiva Zagreb11 October 2026

What these results say

Rudes scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Rudes won 4 of these 5 matches.
NK Varazdin failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
NK Varazdin scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
NK Varazdin conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

HNL table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
8	Rudes	13	5	1	7	16	27	-11	16
5	NK Varazdin	13	5	4	4	17	14	+3	19

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Rudes

Chance to finish in the top four · 10% today

Win 13%

Draw 9%

Defeat 7%

NK Varazdin

Chance to finish in the top four · 53% today

Win 61%

Draw 52%

Defeat 46%

From our HNL season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Rudes vs NK Varazdin

29 August 2026NK Varazdin 2–0 RudesHNL
22 April 2024Rudes 0–2 NK VarazdinHNL
9 February 2024NK Varazdin 1–0 RudesHNL
28 October 2023Rudes 0–0 NK VarazdinHNL
12 August 2023NK Varazdin 2–0 RudesHNL
12 July 2023Rudes 0–1 NK VarazdinFriendlies Clubs

Leading scorers: Rudes and NK Varazdin

Rudes

No player in HNL's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.

NK Varazdin

GoalsAssists

L. Mamić60
I. Canjuga33

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Rudes a 0% chance of the title and NK Varazdin 0.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

How the call on Rudes v NK Varazdin has moved

First published on 7 Nov at 32% / 30% / 38% (home / draw / away). After 1 update it reads 34% / 29% / 37%: the biggest move is Rudes's chance of winning, up 2 points.

Rudes win34%▲ +2
Draw29%▼ −1
NK Varazdin win37%▼ −1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Rudes NK Varazdin

0.59 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.57

1.84 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.27

1.17 Model expected goals (this match) 1.24

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives NK Varazdin the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Rudes against 1.24 for NK Varazdin. Rudes's attack/defence rating is 0.59/1.84 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.57/1.27 for NK Varazdin.

Rudes carry a model rating of 6.28 against 6.46 for NK Varazdin.

How the model reaches 37% for NK Varazdin to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for NK Varazdin to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, Rudes's ratings add 4 points and NK Varazdin's ratings add 4 points, which lands on the published 37%.

Two average sides, neutral ground36%
Home advantage29%−7
Rudes's ratings33%+4
NK Varazdin's ratings37%+4

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Goal trends

RudesModelNK Varazdin

Over 1.5 goals

70%

7 of 10 games

70%

model, this match

60%

6 of 10 games

Over 2.5 goals

60%

6 of 10 games

43%

model, this match

40%

4 of 10 games

Over 3.5 goals

40%

4 of 10 games

22%

model, this match

30%

3 of 10 games

Both teams score

50%

5 of 10 games

50%

model, this match

50%

5 of 10 games

Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.

Season stats

RudesNK Varazdin

13Matches13

5W 1D 7LRecord5W 4D 4L

16 1.2 per gameGoals scored17 1.3 per game

27 2.1 per gameGoals conceded14 1.1 per game

3 of 13Clean sheets5 of 13

3 of 13Failed to score3 of 13

1 of 1Penalties scored1 of 3

32 2.5 per gameYellow cards23 1.8 per game

3Red cards3

4-2-3-1 6×Usual shape4-2-3-1 11×

Rudes at home · NK Varazdin away

6Played6

2W 1D 3LRecord2W 2D 2L

9–15Goals for – against9–8

1 of 6Clean sheets1 of 6

League matches only, HNL, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Position by match

RudesNK Varazdin

Rudes are 8th after 13 HNL matches (between 7th and 10th so far); NK Varazdin are 5th after 13 (between 1st and 5th). How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All HNL matches this season: Rudes 13, NK Varazdin 13.

Rudes scored 021427

NK Varazdin conceded 020345

Rudes score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); NK Varazdin have let in 5 there.

NK Varazdin scored 153323

Rudes conceded 535275

NK Varazdin score most often in the 16–30 minute window (5 goals); Rudes have let in 3 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

Rudes

at HNK Hajduk Split28 Nov · HNLwin 13%
vs Istra 19615 Dec · HNLwin 36%
at NK Slaven Belupo12 Dec · HNLwin 29%
vs HNK Gorica19 Dec · HNLwin 48%
at HNK Rijeka23 Jan · HNLwin 22%

NK Varazdin

at Istra 196128 Nov · HNLwin 30%
vs HNK Gorica5 Dec · HNLwin 54%
at NK Osijek12 Dec · HNLwin 33%
vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb19 Dec · HNLwin 49%
vs HNK Hajduk Split23 Jan · HNLwin 30%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.