Regular Season - 14 · 21 November 2026, 16:00 UTC

HNK Rijeka vs HNK Gorica HNL prediction

Stadion HNK Rijeka, Rijeka

Our model says: HNK Rijeka 1–0 HNK Gorica

The model makes it 56% HNK Rijeka, 26% draw, 18% HNK Gorica — fair odds of 1.79, 3.85 and 5.56.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (14%).

Expected goals: HNK Rijeka 1.75, HNK Gorica 0.75.

Both teams to score: 44%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.

Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.

Edge to HNK Rijeka: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published 7 November 2026 · updated 11 November 2026

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. HNK Rijeka's rating is built from 48 Croatian HNL matches and HNK Gorica's from 49, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 424 matches.

Key facts

HNK Rijeka are 6th on 18 points from 12 games; HNK Gorica are bottom on 7 points from 13 games — HNL.
HNK Rijeka are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat away to Istra 1961.
HNK Gorica have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 3-5 defeat at home to NK Slaven Belupo.
Last 6 meetings: HNK Rijeka 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 31 August 2026, ended HNK Gorica 0–0 HNK Rijeka.

More Croatian HNL predictions

All Croatian HNL predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: HNK Rijeka vs HNK Gorica

44%

Both teams to score

46%

Over 2.5 goals

54%

Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

HNK Rijeka win Draw HNK Gorica win

1–014%
2–013%
1–111%
2–19%
0–09%
3–07%
0–16%

Scores read HNK Rijeka first; the other scorelines share the remaining 31%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

HNK Rijeka at 56%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into HNK Rijeka vs HNK Gorica

HNK Rijeka

HNL

L1-3away to Istra 19617 November 2026
D1-1NK Varazdin1 November 2026
L1-2away to Dinamo Zagreb27 October 2026
W2-1away to Rudes16 October 2026
L1-4away to NK Slaven Belupo11 October 2026

HNK Gorica

HNL

L3-5NK Slaven Belupo7 November 2026
L0-5away to HNK Hajduk Split31 October 2026
D0-0NK Lokomotiva Zagreb24 October 2026
D1-1away to NK Osijek17 October 2026
L1-2Rudes9 October 2026

What these results say

HNK Rijeka scored in every one of these 5 matches.
HNK Rijeka conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for HNK Rijeka.
HNK Gorica did not win any of these 5 matches.
HNK Gorica conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

HNL table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
6	HNK Rijeka	12	5	3	4	19	18	+1	18
10	HNK Gorica	13	1	4	8	10	25	-15	7

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

HNK Rijeka

Chance to finish in the top four · 55% today

Win 59%

Draw 51%

Defeat 43%

HNK Gorica

Chance to finish in the bottom one · 69% today

Win 61%

Draw 68%

Defeat 71%

From our HNL season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: HNK Rijeka vs HNK Gorica

31 August 2026HNK Gorica 0–0 HNK RijekaHNL
23 May 2026HNK Rijeka 2–0 HNK GoricaHNL
22 March 2026HNK Gorica 4–0 HNK RijekaHNL
21 December 2025HNK Rijeka 1–0 HNK GoricaHNL
5 October 2025HNK Gorica 1–3 HNK RijekaHNL
4 May 2025HNK Rijeka 2–1 HNK GoricaHNL

Leading scorers: HNK Rijeka and HNK Gorica

HNK Rijeka

GoalsAssists

T. Fruk54
D. Adu-Adjei43
S. Vignato41

HNK Gorica

GoalsAssists

B. Bogojević40

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives HNK Rijeka a 0.4% chance of the title and HNK Gorica 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

HNK Rijeka HNK Gorica

0.64 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.45

1.41 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.75

1.75 Model expected goals (this match) 0.75

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives HNK Rijeka the highest probability at 56%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.75 expected goals for HNK Rijeka against 0.75 for HNK Gorica. HNK Rijeka's attack/defence rating is 0.64/1.41 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.45/1.75 for HNK Gorica.

HNK Rijeka carry a model rating of 6.46 against 6.18 for HNK Gorica.

How the model reaches 56% for HNK Rijeka to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for HNK Rijeka to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, HNK Rijeka's ratings add 8 points and HNK Gorica's ratings add 7 points, which lands on the published 56%.

Two average sides, neutral ground36%
Home advantage43%+7
Both sides at this match's level41%−2
HNK Rijeka's ratings49%+8
HNK Gorica's ratings56%+7

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Goal trends

HNK RijekaModelHNK Gorica

Over 1.5 goals

90%

9 of 10 games

72%

model, this match

60%

6 of 10 games

Over 2.5 goals

70%

7 of 10 games

46%

model, this match

40%

4 of 10 games

Over 3.5 goals

40%

4 of 10 games

24%

model, this match

30%

3 of 10 games

Both teams score

80%

8 of 10 games

44%

model, this match

40%

4 of 10 games

Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.

Season stats

HNK RijekaHNK Gorica

12Matches13

5W 3D 4LRecord1W 4D 8L

19 1.6 per gameGoals scored10 0.8 per game

18 1.5 per gameGoals conceded25 1.9 per game

2 of 12Clean sheets3 of 13

2 of 12Failed to score6 of 13

1 of 2Penalties scored2 of 2

20 1.7 per gameYellow cards19 1.5 per game

2Red cards0

4-2-3-1 11×Usual shape4-2-3-1 7×

HNK Rijeka at home · HNK Gorica away

5Played6

4W 1D 0LRecord1W 1D 4L

13–5Goals for – against3–12

1 of 5Clean sheets1 of 6

League matches only, HNL, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Position by match

HNK RijekaHNK Gorica

HNK Rijeka are 6th after 12 HNL matches (between 3rd and 6th so far); HNK Gorica are 10th after 13 (between 8th and 10th). How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All HNL matches this season: HNK Rijeka 12, HNK Gorica 13.

HNK Rijeka scored 227340

HNK Gorica conceded 455323

HNK Rijeka score most often in the 31–45 minute window (7 goals); HNK Gorica have let in 5 there.

HNK Gorica scored 031314

HNK Rijeka conceded 133354

HNK Gorica score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); HNK Rijeka have let in 4 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

HNK Rijeka

at NK Osijek28 Nov · HNLwin 34%
vs Dinamo Zagreb3 Dec · HNLwin 27%
vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb5 Dec · HNLwin 51%
at HNK Hajduk Split12 Dec · HNLwin 19%
vs NK Slaven Belupo19 Dec · HNLwin 54%

HNK Gorica

vs Dinamo Zagreb28 Nov · HNLwin 16%
at NK Varazdin5 Dec · HNLwin 18%
vs Istra 196112 Dec · HNLwin 30%
at Rudes19 Dec · HNLwin 24%
vs NK Osijek23 Jan · HNLwin 33%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.