Istra 1961 vs Dinamo Zagreb HNL prediction & result
Final score: Istra 1961 2-2 Dinamo Zagreb.
Before kick-off the model made it 37% Istra 1961, 28% draw, 35% Dinamo Zagreb — fair odds of 2.70, 3.57 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Istra 1961 at 37% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Istra 1961 vs Dinamo Zagreb
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1F. KolicG
- 44R. HrvatinD
- 3M. NasraouiD
- 16S. MiettinenD
- 13N. SepicD
- 88D. DoumbiaM
- 25G. AlbarracinM
- 22E. FrederiksenM
- 20D. AhmetiM
- 7V. RozicM
- 94H. JaganjacF
- 40J. Paus-KunstG
- 24F. TarabaD
- 97A. KadusicD
- 4R. KumarD
- 8A. MauricM
- 34M. KablarM
- 9IsaacF
- 27D. CelijaF
- 30N. Skafar ZuzicF
- 33I. NevisticG
- 25M. ValincicD
- 36S. DominguezD
- 6S. RadeljicD
- 22M. Perez VinlofD
- 80L. KacavendaM
- 27J. MisicM
- 10L. StojkovicM
- 21M. LisicaM
- 9D. BeljoF
- 11A. HoxhaM
- 1D. ZagoracG
- 44I. FilipovicG
- 3B. GodaD
- 26S. McKennaD
- 13P. TabinasD
- 8M. ZajcM
- 20R. MudrazijaM
- 5K. KravtsovM
- 77N. NsokiM
Form going into Istra 1961 vs Dinamo Zagreb
Istra 1961
- L2-3away to HNK Rijeka23 August 2026
Dinamo Zagreb
- W3-1NK Varazdin22 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
HNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Istra 1961 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 9 |
| 1 | Dinamo Zagreb | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 9 | +8 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Istra 1961 vs Dinamo Zagreb
- 22 April 2026Istra 1961 0–2 Dinamo ZagrebHNL
- 14 February 2026Dinamo Zagreb 4–0 Istra 1961HNL
- 9 November 2025Istra 1961 2–1 Dinamo ZagrebHNL
- 23 August 2025Dinamo Zagreb 3–0 Istra 1961HNL
- 5 April 2025Istra 1961 3–0 Dinamo ZagrebHNL
- 25 January 2025Dinamo Zagreb 3–1 Istra 1961HNL
Leading scorers: Istra 1961 and Dinamo Zagreb
Istra 1961
- E. Frederiksen7 goals2 assists
- H. Jaganjac4 goals1 assist
- D. Ahmeti2 goals3 assists
Dinamo Zagreb
- D. Beljo9 goals3 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.