Istra 1961
vs
Dinamo Zagreb
HNL prediction
The model makes it 33% Istra 1961, 26% draw, 41% Dinamo Zagreb — fair odds of 3.03, 3.85 and 2.44. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Istra 1961 1.32, Dinamo Zagreb 1.51.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Istra 1961
- D2-2away to HNK Hajduk Split9 August 2026
- L2-3NK Lokomotiva Zagreb1 August 2026
Dinamo Zagreb
- W4-0Rudes14 August 2026
- W2-0NK Slaven Belupo31 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
HNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Istra 1961 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 1 |
| 2 | Dinamo Zagreb | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | +6 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Istra 1961 vs Dinamo Zagreb
- 22 April 2026Istra 1961 0–2 Dinamo ZagrebHNL
- 14 February 2026Dinamo Zagreb 4–0 Istra 1961HNL
- 9 November 2025Istra 1961 2–1 Dinamo ZagrebHNL
- 23 August 2025Dinamo Zagreb 3–0 Istra 1961HNL
- 5 April 2025Istra 1961 3–0 Dinamo ZagrebHNL
- 25 January 2025Dinamo Zagreb 3–1 Istra 1961HNL
Leading scorers
Istra 1961
- E. Frederiksen3 goals
Dinamo Zagreb
- D. Beljo2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Istra 1961 carry a model rating of 6.37 against 6.6 for Dinamo Zagreb. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Istra 1961 L-D; Dinamo Zagreb W-W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.32 goals for Istra 1961 and 1.51 for Dinamo Zagreb. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Istra 1961 rate 0.63 in attack and 1.63 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Dinamo Zagreb rate 0.66 and 1.11.
That points to 54% for over two and a half goals and 58% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (9%), 0-1 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 350 correct results out of 734 settled predictions (48%), with 70 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Dinamo Zagreb the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Istra 1961 against 1.51 for Dinamo Zagreb. Istra 1961's attack/defence rating is 0.63/1.63 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.66/1.11 for Dinamo Zagreb.