HNK Rijeka vs Istra 1961 HNL prediction & result
Final score: HNK Rijeka 3-2 Istra 1961.
Before kick-off the model made it 49% HNK Rijeka, 27% draw, 24% Istra 1961 — fair odds of 2.04, 3.70 and 4.17.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
HNK Rijeka at 49%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — HNK Rijeka vs Istra 1961
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 99A. TodorovicG
- 22A. OrecD
- 45A. MajstorovicD
- 51A. HusicD
- 23J. LasickasD
- 8I. CubelicM
- 26T. DantasM
- 19S. VignatoM
- 10T. FrukM
- 4N. JankovicM
- 21J. PuljicF
- 13I. VekicG
- 1V. KovacG
- 34M. DevetakD
- 3M. ZivkovicD
- 91N. BodeticD
- 14A. GojakM
- 6B. PavicM
- 5A. BarcoM
- 7Y. KabadayiF
- 1F. KolicG
- 97A. KadusicD
- 3M. NasraouiD
- 4R. KumarD
- 13N. SepicD
- 88D. DoumbiaM
- 8A. MauricM
- 22E. FrederiksenM
- 80I. SaranicM
- 30N. Skafar ZuzicM
- 94H. JaganjacF
- 40J. Paus-KunstG
- 16S. MiettinenD
- 24F. TarabaD
- 44R. HrvatinD
- 20D. AhmetiM
- 25G. AlbarracinM
- 34M. KablarM
- 9IsaacF
- 27D. CelijaF
Form going into HNK Rijeka vs Istra 1961
HNK Rijeka
All competitions we cover
- L0-2away to FC Midtjylland20 August 2026
- L0-2away to NK Varazdin16 August 2026
- D1-1away to Ilves13 August 2026
- W1-0Ilves6 August 2026
- W2-1Rudes2 August 2026
Istra 1961
All competitions we cover
- W3-0NK Slaven Belupo15 August 2026
- D2-2away to HNK Hajduk Split9 August 2026
- L2-3NK Lokomotiva Zagreb1 August 2026
What these results say
- HNK Rijeka conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for HNK Rijeka had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
HNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | HNK Rijeka | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 19 | 18 | +1 | 18 |
| 4 | Istra 1961 | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 24 | 19 | +5 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: HNK Rijeka vs Istra 1961
- 17 May 2026Istra 1961 0–0 HNK RijekaHNL
- 15 March 2026HNK Rijeka 0–2 Istra 1961HNL
- 20 January 2026Istra 1961 1–2 HNK RijekaHNL
- 27 September 2025HNK Rijeka 0–0 Istra 1961HNL
- 19 April 2025Istra 1961 2–0 HNK RijekaHNL
Leading scorers: HNK Rijeka and Istra 1961
HNK Rijeka
GoalsAssists
- T. Fruk54
- D. Adu-Adjei43
- S. Vignato41
Istra 1961
GoalsAssists
- E. Frederiksen115
- H. Jaganjac52
- D. Ahmeti34
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
HNK Rijeka beat Istra 1961 3–2. The model had made a win for HNK Rijeka its most likely outcome, at 49%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: M. Nasraoui (own goal) 18' for HNK Rijeka, J. Puljic 43' for HNK Rijeka, T. Fruk 53' for HNK Rijeka, H. Jaganjac 71' for Istra 1961, E. Frederiksen 90' for Istra 1961. On expected goals it finished 1.95–1.19.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.