NK Osijek vs NK Slaven Belupo HNL prediction & result
Final score: NK Osijek 3-0 NK Slaven Belupo.
Before kick-off the model made it 50% NK Osijek, 27% draw, 23% NK Slaven Belupo — fair odds of 2.00, 3.70 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts NK Osijek at 50% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — NK Osijek vs NK Slaven Belupo
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 31M. MalenicaG
- 2M. HeisterD
- 49I. KolarikD
- 26L. JelenicD
- 22R. JurisicD
- 23L. VrbancicM
- 48J. JezicM
- 39D. BukvicM
- 7I. DolcekM
- 11N. OmerovicM
- 79A. LeonF
- 1N. CurcijaG
- 33E. HasicD
- 24L. PosavecD
- 47D. KalemD
- 8S. MikolcicM
- 67B. BaktiM
- 13V. CaicM
- 46I. BaricF
- 16O. PetrusenkoM
- 30K. SenticG
- 18F. KruseljD
- 5I. CvetkoD
- 4D. KovacicD
- 33K. IsasegiD
- 24L. BosnjakM
- 21L. CrepuljaM
- 11J. MitrovicM
- 88D. BosakM
- 8L. BanovecM
- 90I. NestorovskiF
- 1T. KolarG
- 6T. BozicD
- 77I. UrataD
- 23A. JonssonM
- 17F. MazarM
- 22A. AdeshinaM
- 27A. GrgicF
- 7M. DabroF
Form going into NK Osijek vs NK Slaven Belupo
NK Osijek
- L0-4away to HNK Hajduk Split23 August 2026
- W1-0NK Lokomotiva Zagreb15 August 2026
- W6-1away to Rudes8 August 2026
- W2-0away to HNK Gorica1 August 2026
NK Slaven Belupo
- W2-0HNK Gorica22 August 2026
- L0-3away to Istra 196115 August 2026
- L1-4NK Varazdin9 August 2026
- L0-2away to Dinamo Zagreb31 July 2026
What these results say
- NK Osijek won 3 of these 4 matches.
- NK Osijek scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- NK Slaven Belupo failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- NK Slaven Belupo conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
HNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | NK Osijek | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 14 | +4 | 16 |
| 7 | NK Slaven Belupo | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 17 | -6 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: NK Osijek vs NK Slaven Belupo
- 22 May 2026NK Osijek 2–0 NK Slaven BelupoHNL
- 22 March 2026NK Slaven Belupo 0–0 NK OsijekHNL
- 20 December 2025NK Osijek 0–0 NK Slaven BelupoHNL
- 4 October 2025NK Slaven Belupo 2–1 NK OsijekHNL
- 4 May 2025NK Slaven Belupo 1–4 NK OsijekHNL
- 2 April 2025NK Slaven Belupo 0–0 NK OsijekCup
Leading scorers: NK Osijek and NK Slaven Belupo
NK Osijek
GoalsAssists
- A. León51
- N. Omerović50
NK Slaven Belupo
GoalsAssists
- I. Nestorovski70
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.