Qingdao Jonoon vs Wuhan Three Towns Super League prediction & result
Final score: Qingdao Jonoon 1-5 Wuhan Three Towns.
Before kick-off the model made it 24% Qingdao Jonoon, 27% draw, 49% Wuhan Three Towns — fair odds of 4.17, 3.70 and 2.04. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Chinese Super League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Wuhan Three Towns at 49% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Qingdao Jonoon vs Wuhan Three Towns
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 28Mu PengfeiG
- 37Wei ZixianD
- 4Jin YangyangD
- 3Liu JunshuaiD
- 29Li SudaD
- 31Luo SenwenM
- 6M. EdjoumaM
- 7Y. YeboahM
- 8Lin ChuangyiM
- 34Jin YonghaoM
- 10C. StrandbergF
- 1Liu JunG
- 23Song LongD
- 14Sun Zheng'aoD
- 33Liu JiashenD
- 16Li HailongD
- 20Gong RuicongD
- 24Ngan Cheuk-PanM
- 22Yang CongF
- 19Song WenjieF
- 22Fang JingqiG
- 23Ming TianD
- 2He GuanD
- 11Li AngD
- 4Xu HaofengD
- 50A. LeauteyM
- 18Zhang XiaobinM
- 20Adriano FirminoM
- 10K. BevisM
- 7Gustavo SauerF
- 29J. CadizF
- 31Guo JiayuG
- 28Wang DennyD
- 19Liu YimingD
- 5Li ShenyuanD
- 8Wang JinxianM
- 12Liao ChengjianM
- 15Chen ZhechaoD
- 16Min ZixiM
- 13Zheng KaimuM
Form going into Qingdao Jonoon vs Wuhan Three Towns
Qingdao Jonoon
- L1-2away to SHANGHAI SIPG23 August 2026
- L1-3away to Shandong Luneng14 August 2026
- L0-1Shanghai Shenhua8 August 2026
Wuhan Three Towns
- D0-0Tianjin Teda22 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Qingdao Jonoon | 26 | 6 | 3 | 17 | 34 | 53 | -19 | 14 |
| 15 | Wuhan Three Towns | 26 | 5 | 11 | 10 | 39 | 46 | -7 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Qingdao Jonoon and Wuhan Three Towns
Qingdao Jonoon
No player in Super League's leading scorers — 34 league goals as a side.
Wuhan Three Towns
- J. Cádiz18 goals6 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.