Radomiak Radom
vs
Cracovia Krakow
Ekstraklasa prediction
The model makes it 22% Radomiak Radom, 25% draw, 53% Cracovia Krakow — fair odds of 4.55, 4.00 and 1.89. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Radomiak Radom 1.04, Cracovia Krakow 1.75.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Radomiak Radom
- L0-5away to Legia Warszawa14 August 2026
- L1-3Gornik Zabrze8 August 2026
- L1-3away to GKS Katowice2 August 2026
- W2-1Wieczysta Kraków24 July 2026
Cracovia Krakow
- D0-0away to Slask Wroclaw9 August 2026
- L0-2Pogon Szczecin3 August 2026
- D0-0away to Lech Poznan25 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Radomiak Radom | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 12 | -8 | 3 |
| 14 | Cracovia Krakow | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 2 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Radomiak Radom vs Cracovia Krakow
- 11 May 2026Cracovia Krakow 0–0 Radomiak RadomEkstraklasa
- 7 November 2025Radomiak Radom 3–0 Cracovia KrakowEkstraklasa
- 8 March 2025Cracovia Krakow 1–2 Radomiak RadomEkstraklasa
- 31 August 2024Radomiak Radom 2–1 Cracovia KrakowEkstraklasa
- 3 July 2024Cracovia Krakow 0–1 Radomiak RadomFriendlies Clubs
- 10 February 2024Cracovia Krakow 6–0 Radomiak RadomEkstraklasa
The two sides
Radomiak Radom carry a model rating of 6.3 against 6.74 for Cracovia Krakow. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Radomiak Radom W-L-L-L; Cracovia Krakow D-L-D.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.04 goals for Radomiak Radom and 1.75 for Cracovia Krakow. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Radomiak Radom rate 0.62 in attack and 1.87 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Cracovia Krakow rate 0.67 and 0.89.
That points to 53% for over two and a half goals and 54% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (12%), 0-1 (10%), 1-2 (10%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Radomiak Radom, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 350 correct results out of 734 settled predictions (48%), with 70 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Cracovia Krakow the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Radomiak Radom against 1.75 for Cracovia Krakow. Radomiak Radom's attack/defence rating is 0.62/1.87 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.67/0.89 for Cracovia Krakow.