HNK Hajduk Split
vs
NK Osijek
HNL prediction
The model makes it 42% HNK Hajduk Split, 23% draw, 35% NK Osijek — fair odds of 2.38, 4.35 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: HNK Hajduk Split 1.93, NK Osijek 1.76.
Both teams to score: 71%. Over 2.5 goals: 71%, under 2.5: 29%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
HNK Hajduk Split
- L1-2away to NK Varazdin2 August 2026
NK Osijek
- W6-1away to Rudes8 August 2026
- W2-0away to HNK Gorica1 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
HNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | HNK Hajduk Split | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
| 1 | NK Osijek | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 1 | +7 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
HNK Hajduk Split
No league goals recorded yet.
NK Osijek
- N. Omerović4 goals
- A. León2 goals
- A. Jakupovic1 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
HNK Hajduk Split carry a model rating of 6.48 against 6.56 for NK Osijek. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): HNK Hajduk Split L; NK Osijek W-W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.93 goals for HNK Hajduk Split and 1.76 for NK Osijek. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
HNK Hajduk Split rate 0.88 in attack and 1.99 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; NK Osijek rate 0.63 and 1.16.
That points to 71% for over two and a half goals and 71% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (9%), 2-1 (8%), 1-2 (7%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour NK Osijek, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives HNK Hajduk Split the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.93 expected goals for HNK Hajduk Split against 1.76 for NK Osijek. HNK Hajduk Split's attack/defence rating is 0.88/1.99 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.63/1.16 for NK Osijek.