HNK Hajduk Split vs NK Osijek HNL prediction & result
Final score: HNK Hajduk Split 4-0 NK Osijek.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% HNK Hajduk Split, 23% draw, 35% NK Osijek — fair odds of 2.38, 4.35 and 2.86.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
HNK Hajduk Split at 42%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — HNK Hajduk Split vs NK Osijek
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 33T. SilicG
- 38L. HodakD
- 3R. GabricD
- 5A. Van HoorenbeeckD
- 17D. MelnjakD
- 20A. del MoralM
- 4A. PajazitiM
- 16A. SutaloM
- 19E. BrrutiM
- 26A. HuramM
- 10M. LivajaF
- 44D. StipicaG
- 1I. IvusicG
- 32S. HrgovicD
- 14R. RaciD
- 15D. MaresicD
- 36M. SkelinD
- 21R. PukstasM
- 11M. SegoF
- 7A. SanyangF
- 31M. MalenicaG
- 77S. MustaficD
- 49I. KolarikD
- 26L. JelenicD
- 22R. JurisicD
- 23L. VrbancicM
- 39D. BukvicM
- 8S. MikolcicM
- 11N. OmerovicM
- 79A. LeonF
- 17A. JakupovicM
- 1N. CurcijaG
- 2M. HeisterD
- 33E. HasicD
- 24L. PosavecD
- 47D. KalemD
- 67B. BaktiM
- 16O. PetrusenkoM
- 18N. FarkasM
- 7I. DolcekF
Form going into HNK Hajduk Split vs NK Osijek
HNK Hajduk Split
All competitions we cover
- D2-2Raków Częstochowa20 August 2026
- W2-1away to HNK Gorica16 August 2026
- W4-0FK Zalgiris Vilnius13 August 2026
- D2-2Istra 19619 August 2026
- W5-2away to FK Zalgiris Vilnius6 August 2026
NK Osijek
All competitions we cover
- W1-0NK Lokomotiva Zagreb15 August 2026
- W6-1away to Rudes8 August 2026
- W2-0away to HNK Gorica1 August 2026
What these results say
- HNK Hajduk Split went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- HNK Hajduk Split scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for HNK Hajduk Split had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
HNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HNK Hajduk Split | 13 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 27 | 11 | +16 | 29 |
| 3 | NK Osijek | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 22 | 18 | +4 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: HNK Hajduk Split vs NK Osijek
- 21 April 2026HNK Hajduk Split 0–1 NK OsijekHNL
- 15 February 2026NK Osijek 0–2 HNK Hajduk SplitHNL
- 8 November 2025HNK Hajduk Split 2–0 NK OsijekHNL
- 24 August 2025NK Osijek 0–2 HNK Hajduk SplitHNL
- 27 April 2025NK Osijek 2–0 HNK Hajduk SplitHNL
Leading scorers: HNK Hajduk Split and NK Osijek
HNK Hajduk Split
GoalsAssists
- M. Šego51
- A. Sanyang32
- Carlos Martín31
NK Osijek
GoalsAssists
- A. León61
- N. Omerović50
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
HNK Hajduk Split beat NK Osijek 4–0. The model had made a win for HNK Hajduk Split its most likely outcome, at 42%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: E. Brruti 9' for HNK Hajduk Split, M. Livaja 54' for HNK Hajduk Split, A. Sanyang 83' for HNK Hajduk Split, S. Hrgovic 90' for HNK Hajduk Split. Sent off: Senad Mustafic (NK Osijek) 34'. On expected goals it finished 1.66–0.50.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.