Fiorentina
vs
Frosinone
Serie A prediction
The model makes it 43% Fiorentina, 24% draw, 33% Frosinone — fair odds of 2.33, 4.17 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Fiorentina 1.74, Frosinone 1.51.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Fiorentina vs Frosinone
- 11 February 2024Fiorentina 5–1 FrosinoneSerie A
- 28 September 2023Frosinone 1–1 FiorentinaSerie A
- 7 April 2019Fiorentina 0–1 FrosinoneSerie A
- 9 November 2018Frosinone 1–1 FiorentinaSerie A
- 20 March 2016Frosinone 0–0 FiorentinaSerie A
- 1 November 2015Fiorentina 4–1 FrosinoneSerie A
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Fiorentina carry a model rating of 6.86 against 6.94 for Frosinone. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.74 goals for Fiorentina and 1.51 for Frosinone. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Fiorentina rate 0.90 in attack and 0.89 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Frosinone rate 1.21 and 1.02.
That points to 63% for over two and a half goals and 65% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 350 correct results out of 734 settled predictions (48%), with 70 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Fiorentina the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Fiorentina against 1.51 for Frosinone. Fiorentina's attack/defence rating is 0.9/0.89 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.21/1.02 for Frosinone.