NK Varazdin
vs
Rudes
HNL prediction
The model makes it 86% NK Varazdin, 9% draw, 5% Rudes — fair odds of 1.16, 11.11 and 20.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 3-0 (10%).
Expected goals: NK Varazdin 3.39, Rudes 0.75.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 78%, under 2.5: 22%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
NK Varazdin
- W4-1away to NK Slaven Belupo9 August 2026
- W2-1HNK Hajduk Split2 August 2026
Rudes
- L0-4away to Dinamo Zagreb14 August 2026
- L1-6NK Osijek8 August 2026
- L1-2away to HNK Rijeka2 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
HNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | NK Varazdin | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 6 |
| 10 | Rudes | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 12 | -10 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: NK Varazdin vs Rudes
- 22 April 2024Rudes 0–2 NK VarazdinHNL
- 9 February 2024NK Varazdin 1–0 RudesHNL
- 28 October 2023Rudes 0–0 NK VarazdinHNL
- 12 August 2023NK Varazdin 2–0 RudesHNL
- 12 July 2023Rudes 0–1 NK VarazdinFriendlies Clubs
- 30 April 2022Rudes 3–0 NK VarazdinFirst NL
Leading scorers
NK Varazdin
- I. Canjuga2 goals1 assists
- L. Mamic2 goals
- A. Latković1 goals1 assists
Rudes
- L. Ilecic1 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
NK Varazdin carry a model rating of 6.58 against 5.97 for Rudes. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): NK Varazdin W-W; Rudes L-L-L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 3.39 goals for NK Varazdin and 0.75 for Rudes. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
NK Varazdin rate 0.66 in attack and 1.16 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Rudes rate 0.46 and 2.72.
That points to 78% for over two and a half goals and 51% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 3-0 (10%), 2-0 (9%), 4-0 (9%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 350 correct results out of 734 settled predictions (48%), with 70 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives NK Varazdin the highest probability at 86%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 3.39 expected goals for NK Varazdin against 0.75 for Rudes. NK Varazdin's attack/defence rating is 0.66/1.16 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.46/2.72 for Rudes.