29 August 2026, 11:00 UTC

Energie Cottbus vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2. Bundesliga prediction & result

LEAG Energie Stadion, Cottbus
Full time3 – 4

Final score: Energie Cottbus 3-4 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.

Before kick-off the model made it 29% Energie Cottbus, 25% draw, 46% SpVgg Greuther Fürth — fair odds of 3.45, 4.00 and 2.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 46% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽L. Copadoassist: L. Bittencourt
6'
45'
⚽F. Klaus (pen)
🔁L. Erleinout: H. Rorig
46'
🔁M. Hannemannout: T. Cigerci
46'
47'
⚽F. Doumbia (OG)
50'
Jannis Heuer
Jannis Boziaris
54'
🔁F. Doumbiaout: T. Campulka
55'
66'
🔁D. Srbenyout: O. Sillah
🔁C. Kinsombiout: J. Butler
67'
⚽T. Cigerciassist: L. Bittencourt
70'
72'
⚽O. Pohlmann
73'
🔁J. Dehmout: L. Reich
King Manu
77'
🔁J. Boziarisout: D. Bogdanov
79'
80'
⚽F. Klausassist: O. Sillah
83'
🔁S. Banseout: D. Arifi
83'
🔁S. Appelkampout: A. Keller
84'
Doni Arifi
⚽D. Bogdanovassist: J. Butler
90'

Match stats — Energie Cottbus vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth

54%Possession46%
23Shots15
6On target7
10Corners6
3.03xG1.99

Goals against chances

Energie Cottbus3 from 3.03 xGabout what the chances were worth
SpVgg Greuther Fürth4 from 1.99 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Energie Cottbus 4-2-3-1
  • 1M. LotkaG
  • 21L. ErleinD
  • 2K. ManuD
  • 23F. DoumbiaD
  • 20A. BorgmannD
  • 32L. BittencourtM
  • 8L. MichelbrinkM
  • 11M. HannemannM
  • 19J. BoziarisM
  • 7C. KinsombiM
  • 9L. CopadoF
Substitutes
  • 29K. KratzschG
  • 42J. ZaydanD
  • 16R. MaloneD
  • 4T. CampulkaD
  • 3H. RorigD
  • 10T. CigerciM
  • 5D. PelivanM
  • 31J. ButlerF
  • 13D. BogdanovF
Coach: Claus-Dieter Wollitz
SpVgg Greuther Fürth 4-4-2
  • 1F. HellsternG
  • 23J. DehmD
  • 22J. HeuerD
  • 29K. KeresztesD
  • 27L. ItterD
  • 8S. AppelkampM
  • 6S. BanseM
  • 13P. WillM
  • 10O. PohlmannM
  • 30F. KlausF
  • 7D. SrbenyF
Substitutes
  • 43S. PrufrockG
  • 2L. ReichD
  • 17N. KonigD
  • 48J. KrautkramerD
  • 28D. ArifiM
  • 11A. KellerM
  • 45O. BalliuM
  • 21M. WallentowitzM
  • 42O. SillahF
Coach: Heiko Vogel

Form going into Energie Cottbus vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth

Energie Cottbus

  • L0-3away to Arminia Bielefeld16 August 2026

SpVgg Greuther Fürth

  • L2-41. FC Nürnberg15 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

2. Bundesliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7Energie Cottbus62221413+18
12SpVgg Greuther Fürth6132911-26

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Energie Cottbus vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth

  • 4 May 2014Energie Cottbus 0–6 SpVgg Greuther Furth2. Bundesliga
  • 1 December 2013SpVgg Greuther Furth 1–0 Energie Cottbus2. Bundesliga
  • 5 April 2012SpVgg Greuther Furth 3–0 Energie Cottbus2. Bundesliga
  • 22 October 2011Energie Cottbus 0–2 SpVgg Greuther Furth2. Bundesliga

Leading scorers: Energie Cottbus and SpVgg Greuther Fürth

Energie Cottbus

  • T. Ciğerci4 goals1 assist
  • J. Butler3 goals1 assist

SpVgg Greuther Fürth

  • F. Klaus5 goals1 assist

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.