Energie Cottbus
vs
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
2. Bundesliga prediction
The model makes it 28% Energie Cottbus, 21% draw, 51% SpVgg Greuther Fürth — fair odds of 3.57, 4.76 and 1.96. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (9%).
Expected goals: Energie Cottbus 1.62, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2.20.
Both teams to score: 72%. Over 2.5 goals: 73%, under 2.5: 27%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Energie Cottbus
- W3-1Hannover 969 August 2026
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
- D1-1away to FC St. Pauli9 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Energie Cottbus | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| 11 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Energie Cottbus
- T. Ciğerci2 goals
- J. Butler1 goals
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Energie Cottbus carry a model rating of 6.7 against 6.99 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Energie Cottbus W; SpVgg Greuther Fürth D.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.62 goals for Energie Cottbus and 2.20 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Energie Cottbus rate 1.03 in attack and 1.44 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; SpVgg Greuther Fürth rate 1.09 and 0.83.
That points to 73% for over two and a half goals and 72% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-2 (9%), 1-1 (8%), 2-2 (7%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Energie Cottbus, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 350 correct results out of 734 settled predictions (48%), with 70 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives SpVgg Greuther Fürth the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Energie Cottbus against 2.2 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth. Energie Cottbus's attack/defence rating is 1.03/1.44 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.09/0.83 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth.