Hapoel Petah Tikva
vs
Hapoel Ramat Gan
Ligat Ha'al prediction
Our model says: Hapoel Petah Tikva 1–0 Hapoel Ramat Gan
The model makes it 38% Hapoel Petah Tikva, 29% draw, 33% Hapoel Ramat Gan — fair odds of 2.63, 3.45 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Hapoel Petah Tikva 1.28, Hapoel Ramat Gan 1.14.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 44%, under 2.5: 56%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 957 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Hapoel Petah Tikva's rating is built from 43 Israeli Ligat Ha'al matches and Hapoel Ramat Gan's from 7, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 528 matches.
Key facts
- Hapoel Petah Tikva are 12th on 4 points from 7 games; Hapoel Ramat Gan are 11th on 6 points from 7 games — Ligat Ha'al.
- Hapoel Petah Tikva have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Bnei Sakhnin.
- Hapoel Ramat Gan have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win away to Hapoel Haifa.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 29 July 2026, ended Hapoel Ramat Gan 2–1 Hapoel Petah Tikva.
More Israeli Ligat Ha'al predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Hapoel Petah Tikva vs Hapoel Ramat Gan
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Hapoel Petah Tikva at 38% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 3,490 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Hapoel Petah Tikva vs Hapoel Ramat Gan
Hapoel Petah Tikva
Ligat Ha'al
- L0-2away to Bnei Sakhnin17 October 2026
- D1-1Maccabi Netanya10 October 2026
- L0-3away to Hapoel Tel Aviv18 September 2026
- L0-2Hapoel Beer Sheva13 September 2026
- L1-2away to Maccabi Haifa5 September 2026
Hapoel Ramat Gan
Ligat Ha'al
- W2-0away to Hapoel Haifa17 October 2026
- L0-4Beitar Jerusalem11 October 2026
- L0-1away to Bnei Sakhnin19 September 2026
- W2-0Maccabi Netanya14 September 2026
- L0-4away to Hapoel Tel Aviv7 September 2026
What these results say
- Hapoel Petah Tikva did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Hapoel Petah Tikva conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligat Ha'al table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Hapoel Petah Tikva | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 11 | -8 | 4 |
| 11 | Hapoel Ramat Gan | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Hapoel Petah Tikva vs Hapoel Ramat Gan
- 29 July 2026Hapoel Ramat Gan 2–1 Hapoel Petah TikvaToto Cup Ligat Al
- 5 May 2025Hapoel Ramat Gan 0–1 Hapoel Petah TikvaLiga Leumit
- 3 March 2025Hapoel Ramat Gan 1–2 Hapoel Petah TikvaLiga Leumit
- 29 October 2024Hapoel Petah Tikva 1–1 Hapoel Ramat GanLiga Leumit
- 24 February 2023Hapoel Petah Tikva 0–1 Hapoel Ramat GanLiga Leumit
- 4 November 2022Hapoel Ramat Gan 1–1 Hapoel Petah TikvaLiga Leumit
Leading scorers: Hapoel Petah Tikva and Hapoel Ramat Gan
Hapoel Petah Tikva
No player in Ligat Ha'al's leading scorers — 3 league goals as a side.
Hapoel Ramat Gan
GoalsAssists
- Luan Campos21
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Hapoel Petah Tikva carry a model rating of 6.23 against 6.21 for Hapoel Ramat Gan. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.28 goals for Hapoel Petah Tikva and 1.14 for Hapoel Ramat Gan. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Hapoel Petah Tikva rate 0.45 in attack and 1.60 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Hapoel Ramat Gan rate 0.50 and 1.79.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Hapoel Ramat Gan, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Hapoel Petah Tikva the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Hapoel Petah Tikva against 1.14 for Hapoel Ramat Gan. Hapoel Petah Tikva's attack/defence rating is 0.45/1.6 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.5/1.79 for Hapoel Ramat Gan.
How the model reaches 38% for Hapoel Petah Tikva to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Hapoel Petah Tikva to win. Then home advantage adds 2 points, Hapoel Petah Tikva's ratings take away 27 points and Hapoel Ramat Gan's ratings add 26 points, which lands on the published 38%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage39%+2
- Hapoel Petah Tikva's ratings12%−27
- Hapoel Ramat Gan's ratings38%+26
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Hapoel Petah Tikva at home · Hapoel Ramat Gan away
League matches only, Ligat Ha'al, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligat Ha'al matches this season: Hapoel Petah Tikva 7, Hapoel Ramat Gan 7.
Hapoel Petah Tikva score most often in the 46–60 minute window (2 goals); Hapoel Ramat Gan have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Hapoel Petah Tikva
- at Maccabi Tel Aviv28 Nov · Ligat Ha'alwin 12%
- at Maccabi Petah Tikva1 Dec · Ligat Ha'alwin 34%
- vs Ironi Kiryat Shmona5 Dec · Ligat Ha'alwin 37%
Hapoel Ramat Gan
- vs Ironi Kiryat Shmona28 Nov · Ligat Ha'alwin 38%
- at Ironi Tiberias1 Dec · Ligat Ha'alwin 29%
- vs Hapoel Jerusalem5 Dec · Ligat Ha'alwin 37%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.