Hapoel Jerusalem
vs
Bnei Sakhnin
Ligat Ha'al prediction
Our model says: Hapoel Jerusalem 1–0 Bnei Sakhnin
The model makes it 41% Hapoel Jerusalem, 30% draw, 29% Bnei Sakhnin — fair odds of 2.44, 3.33 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Hapoel Jerusalem 1.29, Bnei Sakhnin 0.99.
Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 40%, under 2.5: 60%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,115 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Key facts
- Hapoel Jerusalem are 9th on 7 points from 7 games; Bnei Sakhnin are 8th on 8 points from 7 games — Ligat Ha'al.
- Hapoel Jerusalem have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Hapoel Beer Sheva.
- Bnei Sakhnin are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Hapoel Petah Tikva.
- Last 6 meetings: Hapoel Jerusalem 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 10 May 2026, ended Hapoel Jerusalem 1–0 Bnei Sakhnin.
More Israeli Ligat Ha'al predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Hapoel Jerusalem vs Bnei Sakhnin
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Hapoel Jerusalem at 41% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 2,103 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Hapoel Jerusalem vs Bnei Sakhnin
Hapoel Jerusalem
Ligat Ha'al
- L1-2away to Hapoel Beer Sheva18 October 2026
- L1-4Maccabi Haifa12 October 2026
- W4-2away to Maccabi Petah Tikva19 September 2026
- D2-2away to Ironi Tiberias15 September 2026
- W4-2Ironi Kiryat Shmona5 September 2026
Bnei Sakhnin
Ligat Ha'al
- W2-0Hapoel Petah Tikva17 October 2026
- D0-0away to Maccabi Tel Aviv10 October 2026
- W1-0Hapoel Ramat Gan19 September 2026
- L1-3away to Hapoel Haifa14 September 2026
- L0-1Beitar Jerusalem7 September 2026
What these results say
- Hapoel Jerusalem scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Hapoel Jerusalem conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Hapoel Jerusalem had three goals or more.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Bnei Sakhnin had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligat Ha'al table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Hapoel Jerusalem | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 7 |
| 8 | Bnei Sakhnin | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Hapoel Jerusalem vs Bnei Sakhnin
- 10 May 2026Hapoel Jerusalem 1–0 Bnei SakhninLigat Ha'al
- 31 January 2026Bnei Sakhnin 0–0 Hapoel JerusalemLigat Ha'al
- 25 October 2025Hapoel Jerusalem 0–0 Bnei SakhninLigat Ha'al
- 15 March 2025Hapoel Jerusalem 4–1 Bnei SakhninLigat Ha'al
- 8 March 2025Bnei Sakhnin 0–2 Hapoel JerusalemLigat Ha'al
- 8 December 2024Hapoel Jerusalem 1–0 Bnei SakhninLigat Ha'al
Leading scorers: Hapoel Jerusalem and Bnei Sakhnin
Hapoel Jerusalem
GoalsAssists
- A. Idoko42
- N. Vrasana40
Bnei Sakhnin
No player in Ligat Ha'al's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Hapoel Jerusalem carry a model rating of 6.25 against 6.21 for Bnei Sakhnin. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.29 goals for Hapoel Jerusalem and 0.99 for Bnei Sakhnin. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Hapoel Jerusalem rate 0.56 in attack and 1.87 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Bnei Sakhnin rate 0.37 and 1.45.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Bnei Sakhnin, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Hapoel Jerusalem the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Hapoel Jerusalem against 0.99 for Bnei Sakhnin. Hapoel Jerusalem's attack/defence rating is 0.56/1.87 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.37/1.45 for Bnei Sakhnin.
How the model reaches 41% for Hapoel Jerusalem to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Hapoel Jerusalem to win. Then home advantage adds 2 points, Hapoel Jerusalem's ratings take away 27 points and Bnei Sakhnin's ratings add 29 points, which lands on the published 41%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage39%+2
- Hapoel Jerusalem's ratings12%−27
- Bnei Sakhnin's ratings41%+29
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Hapoel Jerusalem at home · Bnei Sakhnin away
League matches only, Ligat Ha'al, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligat Ha'al matches this season: Hapoel Jerusalem 7, Bnei Sakhnin 7.
Hapoel Jerusalem score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); Bnei Sakhnin have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Hapoel Jerusalem
- at Beitar Jerusalem28 Nov · Ligat Ha'alwin 17%
- vs Hapoel Haifa1 Dec · Ligat Ha'alwin 36%
- at Hapoel Ramat Gan5 Dec · Ligat Ha'alwin 36%
Bnei Sakhnin
- vs Maccabi Haifa28 Nov · Ligat Ha'alwin 19%
- at Hapoel Beer Sheva1 Dec · Ligat Ha'alwin 15%
- vs Hapoel Tel Aviv5 Dec · Ligat Ha'alwin 18%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.